Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1158 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Latest visible imagery loop shows an increase in low to mid level
clouds across northeast Montana, associated with cyclonic flow and
moderate low to mid level lapse rates between 6.5 and 8.5 c/km.
The experimental HRRR along with the NAM Bufkit soundings and SREF
develop some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
northwest this afternoon. A shortwave in southeast Montana will
rotate into western ND this afternoon helping to aid in vertical
motion. CAPE values between 200 and 400 j/kg with weak 0-6km shear
at 15kt to 20kt. Thus not much more than isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms at this point, with any thunderstorms
remaining non-severe.

Next shortwave coming from northern Wyoming will spread a few
hours of light rainshowers and possible thunderstorms from
southwest into southcentral tonight. This remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 853 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Current forecast remains on track. Focus in the short term will be
on the chance for thunderstorms tonight in the southwest and south

UPDATE Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Cold front advancing east through the Red River valley with
clouds rapidly clearing. Today will be mostly sunny except for a
few clouds northwest. Current forecast looks good.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

After a stormy night, a quiet and mainly clear day is expected.
North Dakota will be under the influence of an upper level low
parked across southern Alberta. This will allow several upper
level short waves to propagate across North Dakota. Some of the
short-term high-res models are indicating scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing in conjunction with one such wave across
southwestern North Dakota late this afternoon and evening. In the
wake of Sunday`s cold front instability will be limited with a dry
westerly wind limiting boundary layer moisture. Therefore...only
showers and a few weak thunderstorms appear possible.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The upper level low will remaining nearly stationary across
southern Alberta through the mid week. This will bring active
cyclonic flow to the area, though models are having quite a bit of
trouble with timing out individual short waves within the system.
With that said, there are chances for precipitation every day
given this active pattern. Eventually this low will eject
eastward. As it does so surface return flow will strengthen along
with moisture advection. Increased boundary layer moisture and
instability could lead to some stronger thunderstorms Wednesday
and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Vfr cigs and vsbys next 24hr. A vcts was added at KISN from 21z
Monday until 02z Tuesday. A period of light rainshowers was also
added at KBIS from 03z Tuesday until 07z Tuesday along with a
vcts. Otherwise a vcsh can be expected for KDIK and KJMS Monday


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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