Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 292005
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE HIGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROF PUSHING
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA AND RIDGE PASSES OVER. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST AS BROAD TROF PUSHES OVER
THE ROCKIES. POTENT INITIAL SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH AROUND
MID-DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF
SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ONGOING OR WILL BE
MOMENTARILY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND DEEP
SURFACE LOW EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
STILL PROJECT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HYDRO PROBLEMS AT
THIS TIME. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83) IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

ACTIVE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY WHEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS...EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THIS FEATURE`S WAKE...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PLENTY
OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ORIENTATED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MVFR CIGS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LOW CIGS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY EVENING.
ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH CHANCES PUSHING EAST AND DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. LCL FG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH WITH AREAL COVERAGE AND AMOUNT OF VIS RESTRICTION STILL
IN QUESTION HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCFG OVER THE TAF SITES FOR NOW.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS








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