Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 190328
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
928 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDES THROUGH. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH HAS NOW SLID INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH SOME OVER
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
DECREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE SLIDES OUT. FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO INCREASE WIND SPEEDS A BIT TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS AND
TO STRETCH SNOW CHANCES A BIT FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WHILE GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUE BEHIND ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS MODEST SHORT WAVE SLIDES
DOWN THROUGH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE
HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AS BROAD AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS
NEAR 35 KNOTS BEING REPORTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN
PLACES LIKE DICKINSON AND HETTINGER THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE ACTUALLY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT STILL COULD PRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER...NONE
OF THE AUTOMATED OBS HAVE REPORTED VSBYS LESS THAN 6SM YET. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SPS FOR THIS UPDATE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES...BUT HIGHS SHOULD
STILL BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S RANGE...WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AS BROAD PACIFIC RIDGING BUILDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO TRAVERSE
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO SNOW CHANCES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SAID PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW NORMAL IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT. DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE THEN
FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDING DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ISOLD/SCT-SHSN COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND AND
ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-EVENING BRINGING
LCL MVFR VIS IN OCCASIONAL BLSN. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME LATER
THIS EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JJS






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