Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290606
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1206 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

No major deviations from the inherited forecast for the early
morning update.

UPDATE Issued at 951 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Based upon snowfall reports through 0330 UTC, many of which are
coming in with strong totals, combined with increasing snow ratios
and continued long duration snowfall through Wednesday associated
with the TROWAL, raised the storm total forecast again. Widespread
10 to 18 inch amounts will be common across central North Dakota
with areas in excess of 20 inches possible from Carpio through
Garrison, Stanton and Center. Based upon the 00 UTC global models
which are coming in, this could still be a bit too light. See the
weather story graphic for the updated forecast storm total.

UPDATE Issued at 535 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Increased the storm total snowfall amounts to as much as 18 inches
from Hanover through New Town with this update given these
locations have already exceeded one foot late this afternoon.
These high snowfall totals are likely being enhanced by possible
lake effect via strong northwest winds over Lake Sakakawea for
areas downstream into into Oliver County.

Otherwise, the band of heavy snow from Mohall through Minot and
Carson as of 2330 UTC associated with a zone of strong dendritic
omega and deformation will slowly weaken as it propagates
southwest. There is a narrow lull in precipitation to the east of
the band before precipitation intensity increases once again
across the upper James River Valley and Devils Lake basin as the
next vorticity lobe extending north of the upper low begins to
propagate cyclonically into western and central North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM
CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Have decided to leave headlines as they are as most areas have
already or will see significant snow.

So far today (as of 2 pm cst) around 5 to 11 inches of snow has
fallen across a large portion of central into west central North
Dakota. The areas yet to see snow accumulations are the James
river valley where temperatures have remained in the mid 30s with
mainly rain...and the far northwest which will see snow begin
soon.

An additional 4 to 6 inches of snow is expected through Wednesday
afternoon for storm totals across central North Dakota around 16
inches. Less snow is expected to the southwest and northwest with
4 to 8 inches, and in the James river valley 3 to 5 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 230 PM
CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The extended period will be fairly quiet after the storm exits the
region. A broad weak flow aloft at h500 will limit any shortwave
energy across the northern plains. Often weak flow aloft and cold
snow covered surfaces favors fog development with stratus areas.
Have not added this at this time but something to watch.

Highs this week will be in the 20s to lower 30s. lows in the teens
and lower 20s. No significant precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Issued at 1206 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions in snow, stratus and blowing snow
will continue through Wednesday across western and central North
Dakota as the long duration winter storm continues. Strong
northwest winds with gusts of 30-40 kts are also expected.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>047-050.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ025-037-
048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH



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