Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

369
FXUS63 KBIS 231504
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1004 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Surface high pressure was over eastern North Dakota with low
pressure over Wyoming. Surface winds out of the southeast were a
tad higher in far southwestern North Dakota this past hour. Thus
looking at forecast soundings for today, raised wind speeds just a
bit to account for more linking surface to around H850. Otherwise
current forecast on track with mostly sunny skies expected and
highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

UPDATE Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Temperatures dropped off more than forecast especially southwest,
so update has taken that into account. A few stations and webcams
were showing patchy fog, so kept that in the forecast early this
morning. Otherwise, still expecting a pleasant weather day with
high pressure in control.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Current large scale pattern shows deep cut off low just off the
Pacific Northwest coast, slowly progressing eastward, with an
upper level ridge centered over the Northern Plains. The
associated surface high was centered over North Dakota this
morning, leading to clear skies and light winds. Overall, today
should be pleasant with high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.
However, during the day the surface high will shift eastward with
return low level flow setting up across eastern Montana and
much of North Dakota.

By 00z, MUCAPE values up to 400 J/KG are located over extreme
southwest ND, but appear to be well capped with CIN values of a
couple hundred J/KG. Also have 0-6km bulk shear values up to 50kts
across this region. SPC Day 1 outlook brings marginal risk area
right up to extreme southwestern ND for these reasons, though
better chance of any storms will be Thursday night as ridge axis
begins to move east of ND and surface low supported by disturbance
in southwest flow aloft approaches western ND by 12z Fri. Slight
chance of thunderstorms are included in the forecast, mainly after
06Z tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

The deep upper level low reaches western Montana by 00z Sat with
southwest flow aloft over our region while low level southerly
flow continues advecting moisture northward. GFS indicates a wide
area of up to 4000 J/KG of MUCAPE over much of northern and
eastern ND. SPC has maintained a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms with few changes to the outlook, which still
highlights most of the state north of I-94 in the slight risk
area. This includes a hatched area for 10% chance of significant
severe weather over north-central and northeast parts of the state
due to potential of strong low level jet late in the day enhancing
storm potential, including tornadic storms. In addition to the
severe potential for Friday and Friday night, very warm conditions
are expected with highs well into the 90s over south central
locations along with higher humidities as dew points rise into the
mid and upper 60s, especially east of the Missouri River.

Temperatures on Saturday will be much cooler following the cold
front, though winds will be the next issue with a tight pressure
gradient behind the departing low pressure system. Forecast
sounding for KDIK mixes to just above 700 mb with 45 knots at the
top of the layer and unidirectional westerly flow through the
boundary layer of 35 to 45 knots. Best potential for wind advisory
criteria being met on Saturday is over western North Dakota.

For the remainder of the period, showers will linger across the
north into Sunday. Otherwise, generally dry conditions are
expected with temperatures running near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu Jun 23 2016

Patchy fog had brought visibility down to 3SM at KDIK this
morning, but expect fog to dissipate early. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through the period with high pressure
dominating.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.