Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 170340
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DID LOWER
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO AROUND ZERO. KEPT CLOUD LINE NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM BISMARCK TO MINOT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF THE STRATUS NOTED ON MESOSCALE MODELS AS THE STRONG
HIGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. SURE WE WILL SEE
SOME UNDULATIONS WITH BISMARCK AND MINOT ON THE FRINGE. CURRENTLY
MINOT IS JUST IN THE CLEAR AND 8 DEGREES WHILE BISMARCK IS UNDER
THE CLOUDS AND 17 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT. LATEST NAM AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
LOW STRATUS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE NIGHT AND MAYBE THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALSO. EASTERN
DAKOTAS INCLUDING JAMESTOWN WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR. THUS
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS
THEY SHOULD REMAIN INSULATED TONIGHT. DROPPED LOWS A LITTLE OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...CLOSEST TO THE COLD
HIGH. THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
NOW WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH STRETCHING THROUGH THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES COMPACT LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH
RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BIGHORNS. OVER
OUR AREA...BROAD SWATH OF LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW FLURRIES...WHILE CLEAR SKIES REMAIN
TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO SLOWLY ERODE OVERNIGHT WITH
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MAINLY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
MAY SKIRT FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE CONTINUE SOME LOW
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ACTIVE WEATHER MAY RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. THEREAFTER...NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO SETUP AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS COULD BRING A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
PATTERN VERIFIES THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK MAY BECOME RATHER
ACTIVE AND COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LOW STRATUS IN A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA. COULD BE SOME STRAY LOW STRATUS NEAR KJMS...BUT MAINLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KISN AND
KDIK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN MVFR STRATUS AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR STRATUS HERE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. KMOT AND KBIS ARE RIGHT ON THE CLOUD LINE SO COULD GO
EITHER WAY AS LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
NOTED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. CURRENTLY KBIS IS UNDER MVFR STRATUS
WITH THE EDGE ABOUT 15 MILES EAST OF THE AIRPORT. KMOT IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES BUT AROUND 5 MILES OR LESS FROM THE CLOUDS. BOTH COULD
GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN MVFR AND CLEAR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





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