Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 260642
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

KEEPING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND
JUST WEST OF IT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW STILL FALLING
IN THIS AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. WILL EVALUATE LATER THIS
MORNING WHETHER TO END THE ADVISORY EARLY OR KEEP IT GOING UNTIL 6
AM CST.

OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES IN HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR
MOVING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ALL AREAS: THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND OBSERVATIONS IN
SOUTHERN CANADA INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THIS AREA.

OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO CONTINUE TO SHRINK THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
PRIMARILY THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WITH THIS UPDATE...CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SHRUNK THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND
CANCELLED WHAT WAS LEFT OF THE ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS OF 02 UTC IS NOW BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND TRIMMED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE BAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

UPDATE TO TRIM DOWN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE WINTER WEATHER AND
WIND ADVISORIES.

THE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NOW BOUNDED GENERALLY BY US
HIGHWAY 2 ACROSS THE NORTH AND HIGHWAY 83 ACROSS THE WEST AS OF 00
UTC THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR...NAMELY ITS 21-22 UTC RUNS...ALL INGREDIENTS SUPPORTIVE OF
MESOSCALE BANDING WITH STEEP MID LEVELS LAPSE RATES...STRONG OMEGA
IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE FORCING
WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF...FOCUSING INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES AS THE SNOW HAS NEARLY
ENDED WEST. WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...DO NOT ANTICIPATE BLOWING SNOW WITH WINDS
TONIGHT. SO REPLACED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH A WIND
ADVISORY THERE UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO SHORTENED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CENTRAL WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. THE
REST OF THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT NORTHEAST
AND 6 AM CST JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SNOW SPREADING EAST AND ENDING
OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT 3 TO 4 INCHES NORTH CENTRAL TO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WITH 2 INCHES TOTAL SOUTH CENTRAL.

CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRUSH THE REGION WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOW
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE WARM SECTOR OF THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ADJUSTED
THE SNOW TOTALS DOWN BY AN INCH OR TWO IN SPOTS AS A RESULT. GIVEN
THE WAFFLING MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN SNOW AMOUNTS...WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

WARM AND DRY AIR WILL THEN ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AHEAD OF
A SURFACE CYCLONE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THE SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CHANCES INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MUCH COLDER AIR IS THEN
PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.

THE COLD CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER TAF SITES AT 06Z. SOME HINT AT
SCATTERING OUT OVER KMOT DURING THE EARLY MORNING...BUT SAW
OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH MVFR CIG DESPITE SAT PICS
INDICATING SOME CLEARING...AND KEPT KMOT IN MVFR. IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE WILL INDUCES SOME -SN FLURRIES. GRADUALLY BECOMING
VFR AT KMOT AND KJMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT KDIK SHOULD REMAIN
MVFR AND OCNL IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN AFT 00Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...JV






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