Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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258
FXUS63 KBIS 251725
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

No major updates for the early afternoon forecast update. Winds
are a bit slow to ramp up, however this was expected with Bufkit
not showing the winds increasing until after 18z.


UPDATE
Issued at 1030 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Expanded the wind advisory a tier of counties north and east of
the inherited advisory area. Bufkit analysis indicates the mixing
layer height increasing with time this afternoon as much drier air
(sfc dewpoints in the upper 30s - mid 40s) moves into the region
from the west. This should allow stronger winds aloft (40-45kts)
to reach the surface eventually this afternoon. Also extended the
wind headlines into this evening as it appears we stay well mixed
until an hour or so before sunset.

Will maintain pops across the north as the mid level low moves
east across the Northern Plains and south central Canada. Not much
instability but will keep a mention for isolated t-storms given
the forcing aloft.

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Latest radar trends have cleared out the convection across the
James river valley this morning. Will follow this trend. Will keep
some afternoon isolated thunderstorms north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Wind advisory for most of western and portions of central North
Dakota highlight the short term period.

Water vapor loop shows an upper low circulating over southeast
Alberta. This is forecast to shift east today, being located in
southeast Saskatchewan/southwest Manitoba between 21z Saturday and
00Z Sunday. Cyclonic flow and additional moisture wrapping around
on the back side of the low will infiltrate northern ND today.
Cape between 300 and 500 j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear between 20kt
and 40kt will yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Severe
weather is not anticipated today.

At the surface, a low pressure in the James River Valley will
ride up along a cold front during the morning, entering southern
Manitoba by early afternoon. Hence isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms still possible from the Turtle Mountains south
into the James River Valley through the morning. For the afternoon
the main threat for thunderstorms will be across the north,
closest to the upper low and steeper low level lapse rates.

A combination of the NAM/GFS Bufkit soundings suggests mixed layer
westerly winds of 30kt to 35kt with gusts to near 45kt at the
top. A high end wind advisory remains valid. Some concern that
showers in the northwest may mix down higher wind gusts at times
this afternoon. West to northwest winds tonight remain gusty,
between 20 and 30 mph, but below advisory criteria.

Highs today will range from the upper 60s northwest to upper 70s
south central. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

On Sunday the h500 upper low will be centered near Lake Winnipeg
moving east. A weak trough from the low extends to the west across
northern North Dakota. This will support widely scattered
thunderstorms across the north Sunday into Sunday night. another
breezy to windy day is expected Sunday especially north central
where the flow around the surface low in Canada will be strongest.
Thats all the precipitation until wednesday when a shortwave tops
the h500 ridge and slides southeast into the northern plains
bringing scattered thunderstorms to the region, mainly southwest
and south central where better shear and instability set up.
Following Wednesday, a prolonger period of northwest flow sets ups
through Saturday. With weak impulses moving into teh northern
plains will see scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of
the period. temperatures will be seasonal with highs in teh 70s
to lower 80s and lows in the 50s .

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main hazards to aviation today will be gusty northwest winds. At
noon CDT a cold front had moved into eastern Minnesota and dry high
pressure was pushing into the Dakotas. Northwest winds were
sustained around 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Wind gusts of
around 40-45 knots are possible at KDIK...and near 40 knots at KISN-
KBIS-KMOT. Winds will decrease by 03z but remain elevated at 15 to
20 knots overnight. Winds to increase to 20-25 knots after 15z
Sunday. VFR ceilings at KISN/KMOT today...then low VFR ceilings
after 06z tonight.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ009>012-017>022-031>035-040>046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV



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