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000
FXUS63 KBIS 302104
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EDGE OF THE SHALLOW COOL AIR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS
RESULTED IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER
COUNTIES OF BURKE..RENVILLE AND BOTTINEAU. THIS WILL MIGRATE INTO
ROLETTE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAS
LIKELY BEEN INHIBITED FROM MOVING SOUTH DUE TO BARE GROUND AND
SUNSHINE WARMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AFTER SUNSET EXPECT THE
STRATUS TO ACCELERATE SOUTH. AS THE SURFACE WINDS BACK IN THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL SEE AN UP SLOPE COMPONENT DEVELOP SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS AREA WILL BE GENERALLY FREE FROM FALLING ICE
CRYSTALS AND THE SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD FAVOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. ENDED THIS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY
AS ICE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY SNOW
WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO
3 INCHES NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY EVENING. COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BRING FALLING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MOST
AREAS OUTSIDE THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE ZERO OR A LITTLE BELOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING NORTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILLS AT THIS TOME WILL BE
AROUND 20 BELOW NORTH CENTRAL AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC BOUTS
OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE TURNING
POINT WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND THEN REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND RESULTING IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS
SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL WITH SNOWFALL...WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT OR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT THAT ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS THE LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. OUTSIDE
OF SNOWFALL...THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THEN...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH. WOULD EXPECT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS A CARRYOVER FROM THE SHORT TERM
SYSTEM. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY EVENING
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AGREEING WITH
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z...BUT NOT CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER TO
NEAR/AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. A 1045MB SURFACE HIGH IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER
AIR IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. IT REMAIN RATHER CLOUDY FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE COLDEST
AIR/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF SUBZERO TEENS WILL RESIDE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN PARTIAL CLEARING. THE
SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING RESULTING IN VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND
DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER PER NAM12/925MB RH FIELD SUNDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A DISTINCT
AREA FROM A SUNNY SKY IN THE EAST TO A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
CONDITION IN THE WEST. MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WEST WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SCOOTS OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
GENERATE PERHAPS A HALF INCH OF SNOW ON AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE
12Z GFS RUN HAS ALL BUT WASHED THIS SYSTEM OUT FOR NOW...BUT THE
NAM/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO GENERATE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAIN ATTENTION TO SNOWFALL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD RESIDES IN THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM AND A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WITH GOOD JET SUPPORT/LARGE SCALE
LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHOWS 2 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS OF LESS THAN 2 INCHES
EAST. THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AGAIN APPEAR TO RECEIVE NEXT TO NOTHING
WITH THIS EVENT PER TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW/UPPER DYNAMICS.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO
ARCTIC AIR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO MID TEENS SOUTHWEST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH THE TRANSITION TO
BROAD RIDGING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S SOUTHWEST TO 20S IN THE
EAST CENTRAL. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD SPREAD SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST AT SUNRISE
TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY EVENING. PATH FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME DID NOT INCLUDE E IN DICKINSON TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
BY LATE MORNING LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL ND.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA