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000
FXUS63 KBIS 150018
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
718 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA AND NO LONGER
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OVER MY
EAST. THUS LOWERED POPS THERE AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST TOWARDS NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND A STRONG S/WV IMPULSE NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
EXPECT THIS TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 03Z THEN GO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WITH
THIS UPDATE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. SATELLITE AND THE RAP MODEL SHOW A MID
LEVEL IMPULSE THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO
NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WILL ADD A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT
WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STILL BELIEVE
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL TONIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY...BELIEVE ITS REASONABLE
FOR ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION .
WILL GO DRY FOR SATURDAY IN GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTH AND
WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE IN CANADA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH A DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR
SUNDAY...A FILLING UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNDER THE COLD CORE ALOFT. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL HIGHS NEAR 80. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN REGARDS
TO THE PROPAGATION AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ON
SHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND HOW FAR EAST THE
LOW CAN PROPAGATE TO TURN TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL...A BLEND OF THE 12 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WAS USED FOR MOST FIELDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. MAY STILL
SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR KISN THROUGH 02Z...BUT EXPECT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT TRACKS INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO
REMAIN MAINLY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH
03Z AND REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT. INCREASING WEST WIND GUSTING
25-30KTS 15Z SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH