Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241718
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND A VERTICALLY STACKED CLOSED LOW
CIRCULATING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LATEST HRRR BOTH HAVE HAD THE RIGHT IDEA WITH THE CURRENT POP
TRENDS. THUS VERY LITTLE IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
WINDS STILL STRONGEST IN NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH RUGBY
SUSTAINED AT 30 MPH. HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED AND TRENDS
WITH THESE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE GUSTY WINDS VIA THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK THIS AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING THE 12Z NAM/GFS/SREF ALL DEVELOP A CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION/700MB LOW...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS LOW
MOVES FROM EAST TO WEST WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE NET
RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A WET MONDAY DEVELOPING FROM EAST TO WEST.
MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

QUICK UPDATE FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. HAVE
ADDED IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA TAPERING TO ISOLATED
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS THE DRY SLOT FROM PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION HAS WRAPPED TOTALLY AROUND THE VERTICALLY STACKED
MID/UPPER LOW. OCCLUDED SYSTEM NOW CIRCULATING IN SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY...RIDING ALONG THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER. DEFORMATION ZONE EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. RADAR SHOWS ECHOES FILLING IN ACROSS THIS AREA...AND
CURRENT POPS ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE. DID ADJUST WINDS A BIT
HIGHER TODAY USING A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH GRAND FORKS...WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WIND ADVISORY...AS MINIMAL AREAL COVERAGE AND OVERALL
LENGTH OF TIME MEETING SUSTAINED 30 MPH IS MARGINAL. ALSO COORDINATED
WITH GRAND FORKS TO INCREASE POPS TONIGHT AS STRATIFORM PRECIP
SHIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE STACKED LOW IS FORECAST TO
ENVELOP MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE 06-10 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITES HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHIFTED
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FURTHER NORTHERN INTO THE HIGHWAY
200 AND US HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDORS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DRY SLOT
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE THROUGH 1130 UTC ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA THAT WILL PROPAGATE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHIFTED THE GREATEST
POPS AND RAINFALL TOTALS FURTHER NORTH IN LINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE SUITES. MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW DEEPENS AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INTENSIFIES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH AN UNSTABLE
ELEVATED MOIST LAYER.

HIGH-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
CURRENT RADAR ANALYSIS INDICATED ZERO PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 4 AM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LATER THIS MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL
APPEARS TO LINE UP BETWEEN I94 AND HIGHWAY 200...WHERE 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED.

ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS PINPOINTED FOR THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30
MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SEVERAL WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA HAVE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS AND STUBBORN CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH READINGS DURING THE DAY
IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ND. IN NORTHERN AREAS...FROM
KISN TO KMOT...MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL. RAIN IS FORECAST FOR
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND THROUGH MONDAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY 00 UTC THIS EVENING. SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING IN THE WEST AND NORTH.
FINALLY...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH ARE GUSTING UP TO 35 KT AT
MIDDAY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS



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