Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251230
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS AREA OF SNOW MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA WITH THE MOST RECENT BAKER OB REPORTING SNOW.
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS WESTERN ND LOCATIONS AND
MARMARTH ND DOT WEB CAM NOW SHOWS SNOWFALL OCCURRING. BOWMAN RADAR
ALSO SHOWS STRONGER ECHOES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. ONLY CHANGES WERE
TO BLEND FORECAST TO MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE EXPECT
SNOW TO CONTINUE EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR SNOW
AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA.
AT UPPER LEVELS A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS COINCIDENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW/CLIPPER WILL ALSO TRACK SOUTHEAST QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CREATE A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE STATE...THE BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. MEANWHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
TRACK (SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ND) WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SYSTEM...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH INTO THE LOWER 30S
THERE TODAY. THUS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WHILE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE FAR
WEST...BECOME MORE INTENSE WITH TIME AS THE FAVORED SNOW BANDS
APPROACH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CLOSER TO NOON...AND CONTINUE THIS
EVENING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THUS EXPECTING 3-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IN AN ARC/LINE FROM CROSBY IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...TO
STANLEY/MINOT/BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK/JAMESTOWN AND LINTON/OAKES.
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR MAINLY SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...AND IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 20 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED BECAUSE
OF THE FAIRLY WET NATURE OF THE FALLING SNOW...DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS
ROADWAYS COMBINED WITH SNOW-COVERED AND ICY ROADS WILL MAKE FOR
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BEGAN THE ADVISORY IN THE WESTERN QUARTER OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING AND ENDED IT THERE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
BEGAN THE ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
HAVE IT VALID UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN
WINDS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND SNOW TAPERING TO FLURRIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES INVOLVE PERIODIC CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
AS ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. ON WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 1038MB SURFACE HIGH DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTION OF STATE CLOSEST TO SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN MONTANA. NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SUPPORTED BY 120KT 300MB JET STREAK
NUDGING IN FROM MONTANA. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH NEAR CANADIAN BORDER AND ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM POCKET ALOFT BEHIND
MAIN BAND OF PRECIP...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBILITY OF MIX PRECIP TYPE DEVELOPING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PULL ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE -25 TO
-30F RANGE ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MVFR STRATUS OVER THE STATE WAS ENTRENCHED AT KJMS. THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STRATUS DECK WAS NEAR/AT KMOT/KBIS TERMINALS. LATEST
MODELS INDICATE A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING OF CLEAR/SCATTERED CLOUDS
BUT HIGHER CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD ENTER KISN/KDIK
AROUND 14Z WITH MVFR VSBYS. THE SNOW AND MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
SPREADS EAST DURING THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED.
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDIK AND KBIS WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 30
KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY TO 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JV






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