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000
FXUS63 KBIS 251351
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
851 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Quick update for observed satellite and radar trends through 13
UTC. Otherwise, the forecast for today remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Showers continue to quickly push towards the east through central
North Dakota into the James River Valley, while cold front is now
working its way through the James River Valley. For morning update
have adjusted precipitation chances/clouds/winds towards current
trends. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Early this Sunday morning surface low pressure was moving
northeast through Manitoba while its parent mid level feature was
just northeast of Bismarck. The wind was running 25 to 45 mph over
the southwest. A band of showers, on the back side of the system,
was marching slowly east across western North Dakota. Immediately
behind the showers the sky was rapidly clearing.

For today we marched the showers across the forecast area with
high pops and then cleared the sky. The wind advisory, as
inherited, was kept in place. Bufkit soundings show a decrease in
winds this afternoon so the expectation would be that the day
shift will be canceling the advisory 3 or so hours early.

Under a weak wind and clear sky tonight have opted to follow the
cooler MAV guidance more closely for overnight lows. This is
supported by upstream dew point temperatures. This would support
patchy frost forming where lows are forecast below 39 degrees. The
lowest we went was 35 around Hettinger, so no freeze, but patchy
frost.

Strong mid level ridging follows for much of this week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

The strong ridging means mild daytime highs through thursday and
dry. The concern again Monday night is for patchy frost for the
reasons given in the short term part of this discussion. patchy
frost was added for lows lower than 39 degrees.

The next mid level wave is due in for the Friday into the weekend
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 847 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

As of 1345 UTC, MVFR stratus was just about to exit KBIS, and will
push east of KMOT around 15 UTC. Stratus is expected to continue
to impact KJMS through 20-21 UTC this afternoon. Otherwise, strong
northwest winds with gusts of 30-40 kts are expected across all of
western and central North Dakota today.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ017>020-031>034-040>046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...AYD