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000
FXUS63 KBIS 041236
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
636 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

SURFACE REPORTS SHOW LIGHT SNOW FALLING FROM WILLISTON SOUTH
THROUGH DICKINSON. CURRENT FORECAST TRACKS THE SNOW THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. NO MAJOR
UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE AND 03 UTC SREF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MONTANA AS OF 0930 UTC TO PROPAGATE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC AIR. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
7.5 C/KM MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES SUPPORTIVE OF
VISIBILITIES NEAR ONE HALF MILE PRIOR TO 18 UTC. HOWEVER...RATHER
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AND DENDRITIC OMEGA...COUPLED WITH WEAK DRY
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HOLD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO ONE TO TWO
INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST LIKELY TO
STAY BELOW ONE INCH. AS THE BAND PROPAGATES EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST SNOWFALL INTENSITIES FOCUS INTO NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN H500 UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN
CANADA. GFS/ECMWF TRACK THIS UPPER LOW EAST AND TRANSFORM THE LOW TO
AN OPEN WAVE. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY H500 RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US
THAT EVENTUALLY BRING IN WARMER H850 TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN HIGHS INTO THE 40S WEST AND 30S CENTRAL. DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE WARMER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SETTING UP A FREEZING RAIN
SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS COLD AIR REMAINS AT THE
SURFACE. AFTER THURSDAY...SEEING A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY POSSIBLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW...AT TIMES NEAR LIFR...WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MVFR CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA