Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 122109
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
309 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Dangerous wind chills through Friday morning highlight the short
term forecast.

Arctic high pressure across western and central North Dakota this
afternoon will propagate into the Upper Mississippi Valley Friday
morning. Thus, given a cold start to the evening expect a rapid
drop in to the -20 to -25 degree range central this evening and
-10 to -15 west. Thereafter, return flow commences with a rising
temperature trend late tonight into Friday morning. However, this
increasing return flow will lead to dangerous wind chills to as
low as 45 below across much of the central and northwest during
the early overnight before temperatures begin to sufficiently
rebound. Thus, have issued a Wind Chill Warning for most of
central and far northwest North Dakota through Friday morning with
a Wind Chill Advisory elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Moderating temperatures this weekend into next week highlight the
extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite is in agreement on split flow across much
of the central CONUS this weekend into early next week,
potentially transitioning to zonal thereafter. This favors a
warming trend to near normal temperatures this weekend and
possibly above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

MVFR visibility in blowing snow is possible across portions of
central North Dakota this afternoon with northwest wind gusts to
35 kts. Otherwise, winds will decrease area wide through the
afternoon with VFR conditions. MVFR stratus may approach KBIS from
South Dakota Friday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for
NDZ001>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037.

Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Friday for NDZ009-
017-018-031>033-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

PJA



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