Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 252001
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A MILD SUNDAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE ORDER
OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL HELP TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NOW OCCLUDING WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PROPAGATE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...AND
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND GOOD
MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED THE WARMER
EDGE OF THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH HAS
VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. THIS RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN MATERIALIZES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER MID WEEK AND ON AND A WARM UP LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES. CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN ARRIVE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS FORCING AND MOISTURE
BOTH INCREASE WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.
CAA CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING
ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. DOUBTFUL
AT THIS TIME WE WILL SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
TENTHS DEPENDING ON DURATION/INTENSITY. SFC DYNAMICS AND THE THERMAL
PROFILE WILL JUST NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD
CAUSE IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

NOTABLE DROP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S/MID 50S. TUESDAY-THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE OCTOBERISH WITH OUR FLOW ALOFT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PARTS OF NEXT
WEEK...INCLUDING HALLOWEEN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES. 12Z GFS REMAINS
COOLER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS FASTER AND
STILL BRINGS ANOTHER WARM FRONT THOUGH ON FRIDAY. ALL MODELS MILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SAT/SUN...AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18 UTC TAF CYCLE. HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD








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