Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 282017
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A trough continues to set up across the lee of the Rockies today.
This has put North Dakota in southeasterly return flow.
Temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday. The main low pressure center will stay south into
southeastern Montana and western South Dakota. However, moist
upslope flow and an upper level jet may combine to provide enough
lift to spark a few thunderstorms this evening across southwest
North Dakota. The latest runs of the HRRR model depict isolated
thunderstorms moving across southwest North Dakota during the
early evening hours.

A cold front will combine with favorable jet dynamics to spark
more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Instability and shear appear to be marginal Wednesday, but a few
storms during the afternoon could contain some small hail and
gusty winds.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High pressure moves in late Wednesday night bringing an end to
precipitation for most locations Thursday

A more robust surface low is expected to develop across eastern
Montana Friday. This low is expected to remain nearby through the
weekend. This will bring a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. There are no clear
signals for widespread severe weather, however, each day has the
potential to produce a few severe thunderstorms with afternoon
instability and a decent shear profile due to westerly flow aloft
and southerly flow at the surface. Moisture is generally expected
to be lacking, so widespread heaving rainfall is not anticipated
even with ample forcing and many chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. Though
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
across southern North Dakota between 12Z and 18Z, with KJMS
having the greatest likelihood of being impacted.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AC


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