Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 190450
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW PUSHING
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST ALONG WITH WEAK 3HR PRESSURE RISES IN EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY IN EAST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH
GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY FARTHER WEST. THUS EXPECT A CLEARING SKY
OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AS MIXING HEIGHTS ON AVERAGE RISE TO 850MB DURING THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

NOT TOO MANY CHANGES IN THIS UPDATE. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
FOR THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
LINGERED A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE SHIFTED OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
SOME FOR CLOUD COVER AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS PUSH EAST AND SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH REMAINING AREAS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRATUS LAYER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS
QUICKLY ERODING EASTWARD FROM FAIRLY ROBUST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE EAST WILL SEE
EARLY EVENING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
THEN TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT. THESE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER
AIR PATTERN SHOWS A HEALTHY RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS MONTANA THAT
WILL SIGNAL THE START OF A WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A CONTINUED WARM
AND DRY PERIOD AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE TRAVERSES EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID-WEEK DEPICTING A LONG
WAVE RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...RESULTING IN
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.

GFS/ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BEHIND THE UPPER RIDGE.
MAIN ENERGY SPLITS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN SOME VERY LOW POPS OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THE FORECAST.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK SEES DEPICTS FAST-MOVING ZONAL
WEST-TO-EAST FLOW ALOFT AFTER THE MID-WEEK TROUGH MOVES TO OUR EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PASS TO OUR EAST. THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT...THEN NORTHWEST BY AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KJMS WHERE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...BETWEEN 15
AND 25 MPH.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS






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