Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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498
FXUS63 KBIS 030332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWING UP IN EASTERN MONTANA WHICH MAY MAKE ITS
WAY INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT. GOING FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ONLY CHANGE FOR EARLY
EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT TOWARDS CURRENT
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STORM IS APPROACHING OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST...BUT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE
OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING.

THINK THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MIGHT HAVE AND AFFECT ON
LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AND DID
LOWER TEMPERATURES HERE BELOW OUR MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE WEST THUS DIDN`T
DROP TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR WEST MAINLY
AFTER 09 UTC...AND SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS DRY THINGS OUT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
WEDNESDAY...THUS KEPT POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT...AND ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE DROPPING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

GENERALLY NEUTRAL ADVECTION SOUTHWEST WITH WARM ADVECTION
NORTHEAST TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD ADVECTION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 245 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
POTENTIALLY VERY STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT S/WV TROUGH/CLIPPER
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS REGION. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TWO WEAKER S/WV`S/CLIPPERS WILL PRECEDE THE STRONG WAVE. THE
FIRST MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
OF THIS FEATURE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK OF LOW/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. WILL KEEP IN SOME LOW POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. SECOND S/WV
IS MORE DEFINED AND MAY BRING A BETTER SHOT AT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HAVE POPS A TAD HIGHER THAN WEDNESDAY`S WAVE BUT
STILL BELOW LIKELY WORDING AT THIS TIME.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE WILL SEE STRONG WAA AHEAD OF IT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A S/WV RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OVER THE
REGION. HIGHS FRIDAY WERE MAINTAINED IN THE MID 20S NORTH CENTRAL
TO AROUND 40 SOUTHWEST..THEN LOWER 30S TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MIXING. STILL A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE S/WV...MAINLY IN
REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATION. 12Z GFS KEEPS NEAR/SUB-
ADVISORY SNOW CRITERIA NORTH AND EAST...WHILE THE 12Z EC BRINGS
NEAR 3" INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAINTAINED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW WITH THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE
MODELS. ONE THING THAT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IS THE WIND GUST
POTENTIAL WITH MOST GUIDANCE ADVERTISING ANYWHERE FROM 45-60KTS
WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WINDS THIS
STRONG COUPLED WITH EVEN 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW...WOULD CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIODS...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL
IN THE HWO...MAINTAINING POSSIBLE ADVISORY/HIGH WIND CRITERIA
WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MVFR CIGS WILL
SPREAD OVER MOST LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN START TO IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JJS



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