Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 071825
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1225 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THE MID-DAY UPDATE HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE THE FINAL BROAD BAND OF SNOW WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH
THE AREA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR MID-MORNING UPDATE FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING OVER VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS
IN FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH MORNING INTO MID-DAY
BEFORE REALLY TRIMMING BACK AS NEXT BATCH OF LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT
THE AREA IS SHOWING UP ON CANADIAN RADARS MOVING
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA LINE. AS FOR
WIND HEADLINES...THOSE REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE WITH VARIOUS LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH CRITERIA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 739 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PUT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SNOW CHANCES OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA IN LINE WITH LATEST REGIONAL RADAR DEPICTION WHICH SHOWS A
BAND STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS NEW SALEM
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS LEMMON. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE LIGHT SNOW. WINDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST WHERE HETTINGER GUSTED TO
61 MPH THIS PAST HOUR. OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY MOVE THROUGH/INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE
DAY. SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON RADAR COVERING MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME LOCATIONS IN DUNN/STARK COUNTY NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY WITH THIS PATCH OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW PER SHERIFF
DEPUTY. WILL NOT LAST LONG BUT DEFINITE LOW VSBYS IN BLOWING SNOW
NOW SHOWING UP WITH THE FALLING SNOW. JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN A LULL
AT THIS TIME PRECIP WISE. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK. MAINLY
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE REPLACING THE BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH WILL NOW RESULT IN ONE HIGH WIND
WARNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE INITIAL
AREA OF SNOW HAS NOW SHIFTED EAST OF THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE WELL ABOVE BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
SWEEPING THROUGH. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS...PERIODS
OF LOW VISIBILITIES...BUT NOT BLIZZARD CRITERIA...WILL OCCUR. THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL VARY BETWEEN 0.01 TO
0.05 ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AS LOW AS A MILE AT TIMES BASED UPON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS IN CANADA THIS MORNING...BUT QUICK IMPROVEMENTS ARE
ALSO ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE AND LIMITED
SNOW AMOUNTS GENERATED.

REGARDING THE HIGH WIND WARNING...LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW A
HIGH PROBABILITY OF TAPPING INTO THE 60KT WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER...WHICH IS AROUND 3500FT-4000FT AGL/ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT SURFACE MAP REVEALS A 3HR
PRESSURE RISE MAX OF 6MB CURRENTLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
THIS WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BY AROUND 18Z
TODAY...NOSING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5 C/KM...AND 0.5KM/1640FT WINDS OF
50KT WILL RESULT IN HIGH WIND CRITERIA BEING MET ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE MAX PRESSURE RISE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. THE HIGH WIND WARNING MIGHT END PRIOR TO ITS
CURRENT 12Z MONDAY ENDING TIME...OR BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY
PRIOR TO ITS ENDING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DEFINED BY A H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US AND GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE
RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THIS WILL MEAN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION. ONE CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX WEST. QUITE A BIT
OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS HE STATE THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S SOUTHWEST...20S AND 30S CENTRAL...AND TEENS AND
20S EAST. LOWS WILL BE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EAST TO THE 20S
WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LCL
IFR VIS REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN -SN/BLSN OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS


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