Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211454
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
954 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Only adjustments this update were for hourly temperatures around
dawn dipping a tad below the hourly forecast temperatures. Otherwise
current forecast on track for today with highs from the upper 70s in
the Turtle Mountains and James Valley, to the mid 80s in the far
west.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Some mid to high level clouds continue to slide down the front of
the ridge from Manitoba/Saskatchewan into Northern/Central North
Dakota. Expect these to gradually push east as ridge builds
eastward. Have addressed this in latest update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Current surface analysis places high pressure through the plains.
Upper level analysis shows trough over the western Great Lakes
into the midwest, while broad ridge builds over the west. Quiet
weather remains over our area.

For today...quiet weather continues as ridge builds into the area.
Milder temperatures expected with highs pushing back to near
average. Quiet weather remains into tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Upper low moves over the Canadian Rockies on Monday with ridge
amplifying ahead of it. This will bring well above average
temperatures to many locations. Surface low deepens over the
western/central Dakotas overnight into Tuesday swinging a cold
front through the region. Models continue to keep precipitation
chances towards the north in the vicinity of the upper low
tracking through the southern Prairie Provinces, and over eastern
locations where the front will slide through later in the day.

Cooler temperatures behind the front are then expected to remain
through much of the work week. Occasional low precipitation
chances are expected over various parts of the area as weak
disturbances move through from time to time. Temperatures may
rebound a bit during the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...KS



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