Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 291817
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE BEING OBSERVED UNDER LOW CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE CLOUD
DECK BEGINS TO ERODE THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED
FLURRIES TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST IS IN
GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. OVERCAST SKIES
WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY AS SATURATED STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES KEEP A LID ON VERTICAL MIXING. GRADUAL
CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE
AXIS ENTERS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...USHERING IN RELATIVELY DRIER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY
GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE BY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT
WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES OVER ALL BUT A PORTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONTINUED
CLEARING HERE THIS MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATED MORNING SKY COVER. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER
ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 245 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND CLOUD
COVER/RESULTANT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION. EMBEDDED S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH EXITING NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO CREATE PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY
ALONG TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94...WHICH SHOULD END BY 12Z AT THE
LATEST AS FORCING DIMINISHES. EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS
REMAINS OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN ADDITION
TO BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE WITH TIME FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
STATE WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST NAM/HRRR INDICATES
LOW STRATUS DECK WILL ERODE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND OVER PORTIONS
OF MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS ARE DEPICTED TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE TRENDING SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

RESULTANT TEMPERATURES WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER WILL SEE
WARMEST READINGS SOUTHWEST WHERE CLEARING IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH
WEAK WAA. CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL BE TEMPERED MORE WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THEY ARE
NOW...MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. ACROSS THE EAST...CAA NORTHEAST
WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE TEENS...LOW/MID 20S JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WHERE CLOUDS MAY ALSO LINGER AND ALSO MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE COLD SFC HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A RETURN TO NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC CHANCES
OF LIGHT SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN...WHILE THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS REMAINS HIGH WITH A LOW RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST 500 HPA HEIGHTS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK. THUS A GENERAL MODEL BLEND WAS UTILIZED.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MULTIPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO UTILIZE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND BRINGING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

THE SECOND WAVE TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOOKING TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AND LOCATIONS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THESE CLIPPERS WOULD
BRING SUB-ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS. IF CURRENT FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS
HOLD...WE COULD BE CLOSE TO LOW ADVISORY 3 INCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
SATURDAY. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH NEAR ADVISORY WIND CHILL
CRITERIA EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER KMOT-
KJMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AREAWIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TM




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