Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220640
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING QUICKLY. ONLY CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE
WAS TO ADJUST HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS TO DROP SLOWLY INTO THE
MID/LOW 20S BY AROUND SUNRISE. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUICK RISE IN
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON AS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
DECREASE. FOR LATE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT
AS THEY HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT AS SOME AREAS OF HIGHER CLOUDS
MOVE THROUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 613 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
THROUGHOUT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH THE MELTING THAT OCCURRED
OVER THE AREA TODAY. OTHERWISE...ONLY OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

NORTH DAKOTA REMAINS IN A MILD AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WARM
FRONT ACROSS MANITOBA AND A COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN.
WARMEST AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. BUT EVEN OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHS TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO
THE MID 40S. EXPECT MODERATE SNOW MELT THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
MILD AIR AND BELIEVE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG OVERNIGHT
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FROM SNOW MELT AND RIVER/LAKE
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL LOOSE IS PUSH AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING
ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN
AND PULL DOWN SLOPE AIR ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. THERE
WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE
SATURDAY AS WELL. WENT WITH THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE THEN RAISED
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST NOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE MONTANA ROCKIES SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING.
INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING.

P-TYPE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOKING
LIKE A MIX. MODELS SPREADS ARE LARGE REGARDING PLACEMENT OF QPF
WHICH LEADS TO A TRICKY POP FORECAST. MODELS ARE NOW HINTING AT A
GREATER CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND NEAR THE TRACK OF
A LEAD S/WV IMPULSE. REGARDLESS A BLEND OF MODELS/BUFKIT ALL
INDICATE ENOUGH WARM AIR (+0C) ALOFT TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR SURGE DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS TO
IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OR NOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
HOW.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY AND ON
ENDING ANY MIXED PRECIP THREAT.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE STRONG
WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING
SNOW IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE
WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED WARMER
THURSDAY-FRIDAY WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS NOW BRINGING UPPER RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHIFT WAS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS 20-30 FOR NEXT FRIDAY. IF MODEL OUTPUT
STAYS THE COURSE WITH A WESTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PROMOTING A
WARM/DOWNSLOPE FLOW...20-30 MAY BE MUCH TOO COLD OF A FORECAST.
FOR NOW OPTED TO REFLECT THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEPICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

LCL IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. MELTING SNOW ON FRIDAY HAS ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY MAINTAIN AT 5 TO 10 MPH
AND KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG. WILL
REFRAIN FROM ADDING TO INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR NOW AS
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECTING SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS WITH SOME 5000 FT CU AS LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 18Z. AFTER 00Z KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH WITH A POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW AT
KISN/KDIK THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






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