Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181827
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1227 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Allowed the winter weather advisory to expire for the remainder of
western and central North Dakota. Any snow occurring is light,
with little to no new accumulations expected. Increased chances of
light snow for much of central ND this afternoon, with high
occurrence but low chance of accumulation in mind. Cold air
intruding from the north should negate chances of freezing drizzle
in southern ND this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1102 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Added mention of a chance of freezing drizzle southwest and south
central this morning. Freezing drizzle began at Bismarck...then
noticed GOES 16 cloud phase channel showed a band of higher temps
from the far southwest counties (Bowman/Hettinger) to Bismarck to
Carrington/Jamestown. Thus issued a special weather statement to
address this for the morning hours. Thinking precip should be
dissipating by around noon in this area. May need to extend the
mention in Jamestown/Carrington and added counties of Emmons,
Logan as well into early afternoon - will continue to monitor for
the afternoon.

Regarding snowfall...the heavier band of snow was between Highway 2
and Highway 200, with several reports of 3 to 5 inches.

UPDATE Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Quick update to trim the southern edge of the advisory based on
the latest high resolution guidance and real time observations.
Band of moderate to heavy snow has begun to organize in between
Hwy 2 and Hwy 200. This area is most favored for localized totals
of 5 to 6 inches of accumulating snowfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Widespread accumulating snow has begun over much of western and
central North Dakota

An upper level shortwave was noted on water vapor satellite
imagery over eastern Montana. 08z SPC mesoanalysis shows low level
frontogenesis developing over western South Dakota and
southwestern North Dakota. As this upper wave continues to move
into the Dakotas and overspread frontogenetical forcing, snow will
become more widespread and banded in nature.

Models are still suggesting that this band of stronger forcing
will move east northeast through the overnight hours, focusing
most of the accumulating snow from the I-94 corridor to the
International Border. Widespread snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches looks likely, with locally higher amounts possible wherever
the most organized part of the main band sets up. The thinking
remains that somewhere between ND Hwy 200 and the International
Border is where the best chance is for 5 or 6 inches to fall.

It is important to note that uncertainty still remains regarding
location of band organization, even at this late hour.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

On Monday, another shortwave will swing through the Northern
Plains, bringing the potential for some more light snow across
southern North Dakota and much of the James River Valley. Snow
will taper on Tuesday, and behind it, another shot of arctic air
will bring the potential for dangerous wind chills across western
and central North Dakota through the middle of the week. A slight
warmup is possible by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Periods of IFR/MVFR in snow this morning will give way to VFR/MVFR
at all sites later this afternoon. While the snow should move out
quickly this afternoon, north winds will increase and patchy
blowing snow will be possible, mainly over north central North
Dakota and the James River Valley.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...AJ



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