Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 291751
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1251 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AS OF 1730 UTC...THE WARM FRONT WAS JUST CROSSING THROUGH THE
HIGHWAY 85 CORRIDOR. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE ALONG AND IN TRAIL OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH GLASGOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
THE BEST CHANCES BOUNDED BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 2.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AS OF 15 UTC
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE BOUNDED BY I-94 AND US
HIGHWAY 2 BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS...THE 00 UTC WRF-ARW/NMM...06
UTC GFS AND 09 UTC SREF. A FEW FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
WEST AROUND MIDDAY...OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE
CURRENT OBS/TRENDS OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD
SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE STATE...THEN
CHANCES OF SHOWERS TODAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN
MANITOBA ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA. A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF HUDSON BAY. A
LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
EXTENDED WESTWARD TO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. TO THE WEST...A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM A
LOW OVER ALBERTA SOUTHWARD ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING.

THE CLOUD DECK CONTINUED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE HUDSON
BAY LOW CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...AND AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. LATEST SAT
PICS INDICATE THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK WAS NEAR
STANLEY...TO MANDAN/BISMARCK...TO NEAR FORT YATES. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AS SKIES CLEAR...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS THAT MAY DROP
QUICKLY...CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SHOULD HAVE THESE CONDITIONS IN THOSE
FEW HOURS BEFORE/AROUND SUNRISE.

THE LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR THE
JAMESTOWN AREA BEFORE NOON. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELD OF THE NAM.

FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE/AROUND NOON...AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE.
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING IN THE WEST...AND KEPT CHANCES IN FOR
ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LINGERING CHANCES IN THE JAMES VALLEY THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING SURFACE LOW...AND WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY...GOOD COLD ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...AND A
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
GENERATE DRY CONDITIONS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG A SHORTWAVE TO LIFT
SOMEWHERE INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GEM HAVE WEAKENED THE
SHORTWAVE AND HAVE NUDGED ITS TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST INTO
MONTANA. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MONDAY. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WOULD BE
AN ISSUE OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MODEL BLEND. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING
ECMWF AND GEM TRENDS...WILL NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT LATER RUNS OF THE GFS WILL BEGIN TO TREND TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AS IT HAS ALL SEASON. NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS FRONT...WITH VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT
WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THIS EVENING...WITH
MVFR STRATUS IN TRAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AYD






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