Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
511 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Issued at 508 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Quick update to trim the southern edge of the advisory based on
the latest high resolution guidance and real time observations.
Band of moderate to heavy snow has begun to organize in between
Hwy 2 and Hwy 200. This area is most favored for localized totals
of 5 to 6 inches of accumulating snowfall.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Widespread accumulating snow has begun over much of western and
central North Dakota

An upper level shortwave was noted on water vapor satellite
imagery over eastern Montana. 08z SPC mesoanalysis shows low level
frontogenesis developing over western South Dakota and
southwestern North Dakota. As this upper wave continues to move
into the Dakotas and overspread frontogenetical forcing, snow will
become more widespread and banded in nature.

Models are still suggesting that this band of stronger forcing
will move east northeast through the overnight hours, focusing
most of the accumulating snow from the I-94 corridor to the
International Border. Widespread snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4
inches looks likely, with locally higher amounts possible wherever
the most organized part of the main band sets up. The thinking
remains that somewhere between ND Hwy 200 and the International
Border is where the best chance is for 5 or 6 inches to fall.

It is important to note that uncertainty still remains regarding
location of band organization, even at this late hour.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

On Monday, another shortwave will swing through the Northern
Plains, bringing the potential for some more light snow across
southern North Dakota and much of the James River Valley. Snow
will taper on Tuesday, and behind it, another shot of arctic air
will bring the potential for dangerous wind chills across western
and central North Dakota through the middle of the week. A slight
warmup is possible by the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Snow is currently moving into western North Dakota and will spread
across all of western and central North Dakota through the
overnight hours. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities to
increase through the night before relaxing to mainly MVFR and VFR
conditions towards the end of the period. Brief LIFR visibilities
will be possible under any heavier snow bands. Breezy north winds
will increase through the morning and early afternoon hours on


Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for



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