Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016


Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A few area observation sites have been gusting to around 40 mph
with one site (Denhoff) peaking at 46 mph. Latest Bufkit analysis
utilizing HRRR guidance indicates the strongest winds have or are
occurring, with a trend towards weaker winds aloft near the top of
the mixed layer for the remainder of today. Marginal wind advisory
conditions trending weaker so a `no` on wind headlines with the
early afternoon forecast product issuance.

No major updates. Temperatures and pops trending well based on
ground truth/radar data.

Issued at 1005 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Wrap around moisture pushing south across south central Canada
into the Northern Plains. The southward extent of the low clouds
should remain well north of Interstate 94 this afternoon as solar
radiation erodes the southern extent of the stratus field. Still
good agreement amongst models to maintain scattered showers north
central into the Turtle Mountains where better mid level forcing
will track into. Models still void of instability along with
latest mesoanalysis so will keep thunder out of the forecast
through 00z.

Winds breezy across the state today, strongest east where Bufkit
indicates nearly 40kts just above the top of the mixed layer. Thus
far all sites below wind advisory criteria and expect this to
continue so no plans for wind headlines with this forecast
issuance. If we did hoist a wind advisory it would be across my
far eastern counties. Will continue to monitor observations.

For tonight, did add thunderstorms northwest where an embedded
s/wv is depicted to track later this evening and forecast to
bring some elevated instability, 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Current forecast trending well. Swirl of clouds remains across
the northern tier of counties and will likely move south through
Minot this morning. Current forecast looks good with only update to
current conditions.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating over
southeast Manitoba with a corresponding northwest flow around the
low into North Dakota. A mid level shortwave trough emanating from
this low extends west into central Saskatchewan with an associated
weak cold front, mainly a wind shift, lying across southern Canada.
This subtle cold front/wind shift will reach the northern border
around 18z today, then sag south into the James River Valley by
00z Monday. Isolated showers generated along and ahead of the
frontal boundary this afternoon in the north will fade as they
slide south. However, another breezy day will be generated with
this weather pattern and frontal passage, as the James River Valley
nears advisory level wind speeds. For now, sub-advisory sustained
winds, that is less than 30mph, and gusts less than 45 mph. Will
forgo any headlines and let the dayshift adjust for any changes.

For tonight, the mid level shortwave trough slides into northern
North Dakota. Hints of a few showers along and ahead of the
shortwave noted on the NAM/GFS and this is reflected in the
gridded forecast.

Highs today will range from the upper 60s north where partly to
mostly cloudy conditions will reside, to the lower 80s south under
a sunny sky. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

This long term period will be dominated by a quasi-stationary
h500 ridge from the southwest conus north through the mountain
provinces of Canada. An associated downstream trough over the
Great Lakes region will combine with the ridge and leave the
northern plains in general northwest flow aloft. Several
perturbations will be moving through the region bringing periodic
thunderstorm chances.

The best chances for thunderstorms will be Tuesday night and
Wednesday and again Wednesday night into Thursday. After Thursday
Canadian high pressure moves south bringing dryer and somewhat
cooler air with a only an isolated thunderstorm possible mainly
west Friday. Then scattered thunderstorms continue into the
weekend as surface low pressure develops in Montana bringing
southeast low level windflow and increased moisture.

highs through the period will be near or slightly below normal
with daytime high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s and night
time lows in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Large surface low was centered over western Ontario, with wrap
around cloud shield over much of south central Canada and into
northern areas of North Dakota and Minnesota. MVFR and low VFR
ceilings were reported across northern North Dakota, but mainly MVFR
ceilings encompassed south central Canada.

Will keep a scattered/broken mention of MVFR level ceilings at
KISN/KMOT for early afternoon, then raising to mainly VFR ceilings
for late afternoon. There may be some isolated showers or thunder in
the afternoon, but chances are too low to mention in individual TAF
sites. Models are indicating MVFR ceilings moving southward after
00z/03z. Thus MVFR at KISN and KMOT for the overnight hours.

Farther south at KDIK/KBIS/KJMS should see a cumulus field
developing - mainly scattered clouds at around 5000 feet this
afternoon. Models are indicating the MVFR clouds in the north should
be moving southward overnight and will mention MVFR ceilings mainly
after 06z.

Regarding winds, sustained winds of around 20-25 knots with gusts to
30 knots this afternoon. Winds decreasing with time by around 00z to
15 knots, then continue to decrease during the evening. Winds
becoming north later tonight at around 10 knots.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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