Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 031759
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE DRY AND QUIET FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 17 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE UNDER HAZY SKIES FROM SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
CANADIAN FIRES. ONGOING FORECAST BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS
THROUGH 14 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS
TO BLEND IN CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED.

TODAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD TO MANITOBA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SUNNY SKIES TODAY
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND
LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
HIGHS FROM THE 70S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
VALLEY...TO THE MID 80S IN THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS UNDERCUT BY A SHORTWAVE
LOW/TROUGH EMERGING FROM UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE...AND WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH...AS LOW AND MID LEVELS IN THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAIN QUITE DRY AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
INTACT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AS SEVERAL H5 WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
FIRST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE DRY...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 WAVE INITIALLY APPROACHES. THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA.

THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
FIRST WAVE DEPARTS...BUT ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE / H5 LOW MOVES IN
QUICKLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THE BLENDED MODEL APPROACH
FOCUSES HIGHER POPS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...WHICH ALSO LINES UP WITH
THE ECMWF AND GFS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD SEE
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WITH LOWS OF 55 TO
60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD


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