Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 242013
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
313 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
AVIATION ISSUES WITH LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A SURFACE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AND
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE FAR WEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO MID 60S
SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE HOLDING STEADY/INCREASING OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. CLOUDS ARE ALSO STARTING TO INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA. SHOULD GET BUY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNDER WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND A DRY EASTERLY FLOW.

TONIGHT...MESOSCALE MODELS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS
ALL INDICATE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT FROM EAST TO
WEST. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER EVEN HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE
WILL START THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT EXPECT CLOUDS
TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ON SHORE AND WE START
TO SEE THE LEADING ENERGY GRAZING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE AND
BRING SOME AFTERNOON SUN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO REMAIN (ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING) AS THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. WE CUT
BACK THE EASTERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST. WITH THE COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW AND THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION...WE HAVE ALSO
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE LATEST SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
SPLIT FLOW REGIME FOR NORTH DAKOTA...WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS TO AFFECT WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER THE
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL MAINLY IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE IMPACTING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. RIDGING WILL DEVELOP FOR A DRIER AND WARMER
PATTERN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TOWARD UNSETTLED WEATHER
APPEARS AGAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
BEING ADVECTED VIA A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW PATTERN AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL MOTION WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONT AND CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WHICH WILL BE
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST. DRIEST CONDITIONS EXIST EAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SHIFTS INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO WANE AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
TRIES TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BUT STALLS FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST....ESSENTIALLY FROM NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...INTERACTION WITH AN ADVANCING
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...AND ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDING ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER...WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THAT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR RAIN WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK LIKE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH WEST
WITH AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH CENTRAL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
850MB TEMPERATURES ALONG A THERMAL RIDGE WILL RANGE BETWEEN +16C TO
+20C BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH POSSIBLY SOME 80S NEAR/ALONG THE THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS THURSDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME. PERHAPS A MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING WITH AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...COMBINED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SLOWED THINGS DOWN A LITTLE FROM
CURRENT FORECAST MODELS...BUT BASICALLY BROUGHT IN IFR CEILINGS TO
KJMS AROUND 08Z AND SPREAD THIS WEST INTO KMOT-KBIS AND KDIK 10-13
UTC. FOR NOW KEPT THE IFR OUT OF KISN...BUT DID BRING IN MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 15 UTC SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT
HAVE TRENDED TO IFR CEILINGS SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH






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