Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211352

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
852 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Issued at 845 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

For early morning update have backed off on cloud cover over a
fair amount of western North Dakota based on latest satellite
imagery. Some concern with increasing clouds over far south
central North Dakota as some anvil is blowing into the area from
convection over central South Dakota. Will see how long it lasts
over the area as it should start sliding off to the east soon.

UPDATE Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

A surface trough of low pressure across central North Dakota will
be the focus for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across central North Dakota this morning. Expect slow decreasing
clouds this afternoon. Updated POPs with the HRRR Time Lag
ensemble for the morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Showers and thunderstorms early today and lingering clouds affecting
the solar eclipse highlight the short term period.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough, most
pronounced over southern Saskatchewan where large scale ascent is
strongest. This extends south into western and central ND,
although not as strong, but enough forcing for areas of showers
and thunderstorms west and south central. Elevated instability/convection
will continue this morning as a low level jet shifts from western
ND into central. Forcing also shifts into central ND this
morning, reflected in the 3hr surface pressure falls which are
also moving in this direction. A cold front in eastern Montana
will gradually move into western ND this morning, then into
central ND this afternoon. Used a blend of the HRRR/ExpHRRR/RAP13
for Pops this morning. Expect the majority of the precipitation
exiting central ND by 18z, with clouds decreasing from west to
east. Clouds and associated precipitation will probably limit
viewing of the solar eclipse initially, with better prospects
developing in the afternoon as clouds decrease before the eclipse
ends. Highs today will be in the 70s, with lower 80s far southwest.

Northerly flow at the surface and aloft will result in cooler/drier
air this evening and tonight. Overnight lows will range from 45F
to 50F.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Northwesterly flow aloft dominates Tuesday through Thursday, then
briefly transitions to southwest flow Friday, before returning to
northwesterly over the weekend.

The end result will be a sunny and dry Tuesday with highs in the
70s, to lower 80s southwest. An embedded shortwave within the
northwest flow slides east of the Turtle Mountains Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Expecting another dry day Wednesday with highs
similar to Tuesday. A transitory ridge crests western/central ND
Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures and dry weather.
Southwest flow emerges Friday/Friday night with a shortwave and
associated cold front pushing through resulting in a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. This lingers in the James River Valley
Saturday. Generally dry weather returns Sunday. Highs through the
period mostly remain in the 70s to lower 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Scattered showers will impact the KJMS TAF early this morning
otherwise generally clearing skies today with VFR conditions.




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