Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 281130
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
630 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A FEW STRAY SHOWERS EXITING THE NORTH CENTRAL...OTHERWISE DRY
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AND WILL KEEP THIS THROUGH 15 UTC. RAISED
SKY COVER A LITTLE ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE BORDER OF
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...MOVING EASTWARD. THIS
FEATURE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD PERSISTED FROM THURSDAY EVENING OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND WAS NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME CONVECTION THAT APPEARS TO BE FORMING ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE STORMS MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN PART OF BOTTINEAU COUNTY AND INTO
ROLETTE AND NORTHERN PIERCE COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNRISE THERE.

AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...SOUTH WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S MAKE
FOR A POTENTIAL FOR FOG THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST. HAVE A
MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG UNTIL AROUND 9-10 AM CDT.

LATER THIS MORNING DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN US RIDGE WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS DEVELOPING.
THIS OCCURS AS THE MORE HUMID AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY REACHING
THE LOWER 90S WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SHOULD BE REPLACED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
(MAYBE UPPER 30S) WEST AND IN THE 50S CENTRAL...BUT HUMID AIR
LINGERING IN THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

THE DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP INTO THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SMOKE ALOFT
FROM THE WESTERN US FIRES MAY DIM THE DAYTIME SUNSHINE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL U.S
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATE TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT
WEEK PUTTING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
UPPER RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY DAYTIME.

CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES EXCEPT
FOR JAMESTOWN AND WILLISTON. JAMESTOWN WILL BE EAST OF THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND THE RECORD HIGH OF 98 LOOKS SAFE...WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 90S. AT WILLISTON THE RECORD HIGH ON SATURDAY IS 99
DEGREES...SET IN 2012. THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE IN JEOPARDY AS
FORECAST HIGH SATURDAY IS 101. ON SUNDAY WE ARE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. THE THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THUS MINOT AND BISMARCK COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING RECORDS...BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
ENERGY ALOFT AND A SFC BOUNDARY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR
MONDAY.

BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS DEPICTED...BUT WE CAN
EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ANY
SHORTWAVES WHICH TRAVEL THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH ANY
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS FRIDAY MORNING UNTIL AROUND 15Z. KJMS/KBIS HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FRIDAY. SMOKE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. NOT SEEING ANY IMPACTS OF SFC VSBY FROM SMOKE AS YET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF
THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 100 DEGREES OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT
AS WE MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE EXPECTING A HIGH FIRE
DANGER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AS
OF NOW A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE WINDS. THE SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS
RATHER WEAK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NAM/GFS BUFKIT
INDICATING SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A MAX OF
AROUND 20 MPH AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HUMIDITIES AROUND 15 PERCENT.
THEREFORE RIGHT NOW WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.
LATER SHIFTS CAN INTERROGATE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE WINDS
INCREASE OR AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP EVEN LOWER ON SATURDAY. IF
SO...FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WOULD LIKELY BE ISSUED. COORDINATED
WITH SURROUNDING WFO`S GGW BYZ AND UNR AND THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT
WINDS WERE CURRENTLY THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH


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