Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 292153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
453 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

Issued at 447 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Quick update mainly for thunderstorm chances based on latest
radar. Still some outflow boundary interactions around Bismarck
with an area of moderately unstable air just to the north of
Bismarck. Did have a local gust to 51 knots at the Mandan airport
with the earlier storm so an isolated severe wind or hail report
is possible, but think most storms will remain below severe
levels. Also adjusted pops slightly for convection dropping south
from Canada into the northern tier counties. Updated text products
out shortly.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Current surface analysis places cold front sagging southward near
the international border with low off towards northeastern
Ontario. Upper level analysis places ridge over the Rockies with
low over southwestern Hudson Bay, bringing northwest flow to our
area. Weak short wave trough sliding through western North Dakota
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms in area of enhanced
instability where deep layer shear is also elevated a bit. So far
reports have been sub-severe hail though recently some higher wind
reports have come in.

Expect aforementioned showers and storms to continue to shift to
the southeast as short wave continues to slide through. Another
round of showers and storms will be possible as the front slowly
slides through, though these should remain tame, especially over
the north where instability is lower and shear is weak.

On Thursday...quiet weather is expected behind the front. Cooler
airmass settles in which will bring below average temperatures to
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Cooler temperatures remain into Friday with a warming trend
developing into the holiday weekend bringing near to above
average temperatures going into next week. Westerly upper level
flow develops with a variety of short waves moving through
bringing a near daily chance for thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 447 PM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon into
this evening. Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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