Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 021432
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
932 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF DEVILS LAKE AT 14Z TRACKING
SOUTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF MINOT.
UPPER LOW CREATING INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND HAVE HAD
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SO FAR.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TEH MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE SHOWERS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL. CLEARING NORTH. CURRENT
FORECAST TRACKING WILL AND JUST UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES
THIS MORNING. AS WE HEAT UP...THE CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
THUS WENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER
COUNTIES SO ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY THERE. ALSO
LOOKS LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING SO EXTENDED POPS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE DESTABILIZE FURTHER...THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE RAP IS INDICATING POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS FAR
NORTH AS WELLS COUNTY AND AS FAR WEST AS WESTERN MORTON AND GRANT
COUNTIES...SO EXTENDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO A LITTLE
FARTHER WEST INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION OF NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
STILL HOLDS...WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OF THE POTENTIAL OF
STORMS NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

HIGHLIGHTS TODAY INCLUDE LOW TOP CONVECTION WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DETAILS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATING
AND SHIFTING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING. A 100KT
JET STREAK WAS SEEN DIVING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER
LOW. CANADIAN/LOCAL MINOT RADAR SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MINOT AIR FORCE BASE
IS THE ONLY REPORTING SURFACE STATION AT THIS TIME WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE
THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THINGS POTENTIALLY GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT (-24C) ASSOCIATED WITH A H7-H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN NOON CDT-6PM CDT
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE 200-300 J/KG AND STEEP (1000-85MB) LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5C/KM...ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 55KT-65KT.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT CAPE/UPWARD MOMENTUM IS LACKING DUE TO
LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ASCENT WILL BE FULFILLED BY THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED 100KT JET STREAK...WHICH
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS EXPECTING LOW TOP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...WITH EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS PER BISMARCK BUFKIT SOUNDING OF AROUND 18KFT. WITH
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY PRESENT/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE VORTICITY STRETCHING INTO
THE VERTICAL COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR COMPOSITE INDICATE THE FIRST SURGE OF
RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SLIDING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING...THEN POCKETS OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS DEVELOP AGAIN
BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR SKY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THIS SHORTWAVE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL HEAD SOUTH AND REACH THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BRIEF/MINOR COOLING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. ELSEWHERE EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL (700MB-
500MB) RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TAKE CONTROL AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY SHORTWAVES RIDING ATOP THE RIDGE TO
REMAIN IN SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AND PEAKING
BETWEEN +16C TO +20C THURSDAY/FRIDAY. TAKING THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN
DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST FRIDAY GIVING WAY TO A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFT ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...A CLOSED
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPIATION SHIELD IS FORECAST INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

-SHRA ARE FORECAST AT KBIS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z AND KJMS 14Z-17Z MONDAY
WITH BKN CIGS AROUND 8000FT. A VCTS WAS MENTIONED AT AT KBIS FROM
17Z MONDAY THROUGH 22Z MONDAY. NOT MENTION OF VCTS ELSE. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AT KDIK AND KJMS. EXPECT A
CLEAR SKY AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. WINDS AROUND 10KT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDIK AND KISN WHERE GUSTS TO 20KT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MID EVENING
AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FOR TUESDAY...JUST A HEADS UP THAT A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUSTAINED AT 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20 AND 25 PERCENT AND WILL COINCIDE WITH THESE WINDS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE TIME DURATION OF
THREE CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH 20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 20 PERCENT APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WITH INSUFFICIENT DURATION AND SMALL AREAL COVERAGE...WOULD NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY HIGHLIGHTS UNLESS THERE ARE CHANGES WITH FUTURE
FORECASTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...KS


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