Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 292037
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
237 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The unusually large and long lasting winter storm continues this
afternoon with another surge of moisture moving into North
Dakota. Quasi-steady state moderate to occasionally heavy snow
will set up across central North Dakota this afternoon and
continue this evening. Environment Canada radar networks and the
US 88D radars show a very long fetch of moisture moving around the
upper low along the warm conveyor belt from as far away as western
Ontario.

Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches are very likely by
Wednesday morning across a wide swath of central North Dakota.
To the the west, winter storm warning criteria may not quite be
met across the far western portions of the county warning area,
but many of these counties will see winter storm criteria across
the eastern end of the counties. For this reason do not expect to
cancel any of the warning.

Across the James river valley snow will finally start tonight.
Three to 5 inches still looks reasonable.

By Wednesday the snow and blowing snow will end from west to east.



.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The main concern in the extended forecast will be the potential
for much colder temperatures early next week. Artic air will
finally form across the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies
then move south into the northern plains. GEFS plumes for 2 meter
temperatures showing some potential for 10 to 15 below zero
and this not out of the question based on the relatively deep and
fresh snow cover. Used blended temperatures which show around
zero for lows across western North Dakota next Wednesday morning.
This would imply wind chills of 10 to 15 below with not too much
wind. Otherwise the extended will see highs in the 20s and lows in
the teens and generally dry until teh cold front ushering in the
arctic air arrives Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

A winter storm system will impact all of western and central ND
through Wednesday. Snow with areas of blowing snow for the west half
of the state, including KISN, KMOT, KDIK, and KBIS. A rain/snow mix
is in store for KJMS. IFR/MVFR visibilities and ceilings expected
through the forecast period. An enhanced area of snowfall is
expected from 18z through 06z tonight, where moderate to heavy
snowfall is expected. Northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts will create areas of blowing and drifting snow for the west
half of the state.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Wednesday for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>047-050.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for NDZ025-037-
048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV



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