Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300518
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF 05 UTC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
NO FOG ACROSS THE STATE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG IN ACROSS
THE AREA...HOWEVER DO ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.

ALSO DROPPED LOWS TONIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 45
DEGREES AS OF 05 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING...WITH A STRATUS DECK SLOWLY ROTATING EAST OUT OF THE
JAMES RIVER BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE 40S STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE TEMPERATURES
FALL FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE UPDATED
GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS PRETTY MUCH
ENDED ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MEANDER EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST SPOTS
AS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY FOG IN THE
GRIDS...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON THE EVENING TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE HIGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROF PUSHING
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA AND RIDGE PASSES OVER. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST AS BROAD TROF PUSHES OVER
THE ROCKIES. POTENT INITIAL SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH AROUND
MID-DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF
SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ONGOING OR WILL BE
MOMENTARILY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND DEEP
SURFACE LOW EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
STILL PROJECT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HYDRO PROBLEMS AT
THIS TIME. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83) IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

ACTIVE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY WHEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS...EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THIS FEATURE`S WAKE...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PLENTY
OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ORIENTATED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF SITE KJMS BY 07Z. THE PROBLEM FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW...FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE
MOST LIKELY SITES TO SEE FOG WILL BE KMOT...KBIS...AND KJMS
BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. AT TIMES FOG COULD BE DENSE CAUSING LIFR
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER ONLY PATCHY FOG IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LATER IN THE 06 TAF PERIOD A COLD FRONT WILL PASS FROM WEST TO
EAST. FOR NOW HAVE VCTS IN FOR KISN...KDIK...KMOT...AND KBIS. MORE
DETAILS ON THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE AVAILABLE
FROM THE 12Z AND 18Z TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...MM






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