Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
908 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

ONLY CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE HIGH CLOUD COVER A
BIT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.
OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC WITH A MILD DAY EXPECTED WITH DOWN-
SLOPING WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A CLIPPER
ACROSS NORTHERN MANITOBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CURRENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TONIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE
WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TO ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
HERE WITH PATCHY FOG HAVE PLAGUED THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

TODAY THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND
REACHES NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES - HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST
AREAS AND REACHING 40 IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF MID
CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MAKING FOR A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.

TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL HOVER AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK - AND EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. FORECAST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ALONG
WITH A RAPIDLY PROPAGATING CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.

HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RAPIDLY PROPAGATING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...CO-LOCATED
WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. GIVEN HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 40S WEST...AND 30S CENTRAL ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST QPF TOTALS ARE MINIMAL
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

IFR STRATUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 12 UTC IS EXPECTED
TO MISS KJMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 12
UTC TAF CYCLE. BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AT 25-30 KTS
ARE FORECAST TODAY AREA WIDE.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD






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