Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 110220

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
920 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Issued at 918 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Increased overnight lows a few degrees into the mid to upper 30s
for most areas given mixing ahead of low pressure across Montana,
following the 01 UTC NBM.

UPDATE Issued at 601 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Did increase mid to upper level cloud cover through the night
based on GOES16 trends through 23 UTC and the 22 UTC NBM
iteration, which depicts these decks well, and propagates them
east through the night.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

The short term period will be dry with few forecast challenges
through Wednesday. The only concern will be some gusty southerly
winds of 20 to 30 mph forecast to develop across the James River
valley Wednesday afternoon. The winds develop in response to
increasing gradient flow from a dry trough of low pressure in
eastern Montana and high pressure in place across Minnesota. At
this time do not expect the winds to reach advisory criteria, but
wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph with some higher gusts definitely
look reasonable by mid afternoon from Jamestown south to the South
Dakota border. Highs Wednesday will be in the lower to mid 50s.

Minimum relative humidity is forecast to fall to around 20
percent southwest Wednesday afternoon, however the gusty winds
will be east of there. So low fire weather concerns on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Cooler temperatures look likely by Friday into the weekend
as the main H500 trough over the west coast moves east bringing
lower h500 heights in southwest flow aloft through the Northern
Plains. However the potential precipitation likely will still be
modest as return gulf moisture is largely blocked by a frontal
boundary moving slowly across the southern plains. The best
chance for precipitation will be Friday night through Saturday
night. During this time there could be some rain and and snow mix,
however any accumulations should melt and not be of consequence.
Highs will be in the 50s and 60s Thursday cooling to the 40s and
50s Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures should moderate back
into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday. The 8 to 14 day extended
forecast is pointing to above normal late October temperatures
and below normal precipitation.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 918 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 00 UTC TAF cycle. Low level wind shear is possible
across most of the area tonight with strong winds off the surface
in an inversion. Southerly winds with gusts of 25-30kts are
expected across central North Dakota late Wednesday morning and
through the afternoon.




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