Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250859
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS
THIS MORNING ACROSS MY EAST AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WRAP AROUND/TROWAL INDUCED SNOW ALL BUT OVER ACROSS
MY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS FORCING DIMINISHES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. PRESSURE RISES IN THE LOW`S WAKE AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING INTO EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...WITH THE STRONGER MAGNITUDES AND GUSTS CENTRAL DEVELOPING
EAST.

NAM/GFS BUFKIT ANALYSIS PUTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS MY FAR EAST...ESPECIALLY THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE 40-45 KTS WILL INTRUDE INTO THE MIXED LAYER THIS
MORNING. GUST POTENTIAL TAPERS OFF AT AROUND 18Z AND THEREAFTER.
THUS OPTED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
DURING THE AM HOURS...NOW THROUGH 18Z.

RATHER CHILLY TODAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. WE WILL NOT SEE RETURN FLOW UNTIL TONIGHT
WEST...AND NOT UNTIL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT ELSEWHERE. LINGERING
STRATUS THIS MORNING SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING MORE SCT-BKN AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA MOVING OUR WAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MIGRATES EAST TO ALONG THE
ND/MT BORDER TONIGHT. EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL RIDE OVER THIS
FEATURE AND TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE WARMING TREND BROUGHT TO US
BY THE H500 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST NOW MOVING INLAND. THIS WILL
BRING A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC AND RETURN MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY.
FIRST...THURSDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL
BRING DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WEST (WHERE A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS IN THE FORM OF
A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY). THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE STATE FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
EAST. ALREADY HIGHS WILL WARM TO NEAR 60 WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY
SATURDAY THE WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS
NEAR 70 ARE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 60S
CENTRAL. THE NORTH CENTRAL WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY WHICH WILL HAVE SOME BUT LIMITED
MOISTURE. SCATTERED RAIN IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN THE 50S. A RETURN TO MILDER
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE AGAIN POPS
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN US THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)

ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WILL IMPACT ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. PARTIAL
CLEARING NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL 11-14Z SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
TREND VFR FOR KISN-KMOT. VFR DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE THEREAFTER.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ025-037-048-
051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH







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