Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 111132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
632 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Main change for this update was to delay the onset of pops by a
couple hours this afternoon. This is in line with the latest high
resolution model output. The 11.06z NAM and GFS also hold off on
chances until at least 21z. The remainder of the forecast is
generally on track with only minor changes to sky cover to reflect
the clouds moving through the central part of the state.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The main concern in the short term period will be the chance of
thunderstorms. An H5 wave will drop southeast from Canada into
Montana today. This will be the main focus for showers /
thunderstorms today into Saturday. The main rain chances today
will begin in western parts of the state before spreading east.
The Storm Prediction Center has put a marginal risk for severe
weather in the far southwest corner of the state, and could see
the potential for a few stronger storms in that region this
afternoon / evening. MUCAPE values rise to near 1000 j/kg with
0-6km shear of 30 to 40 kts.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The aforementioned wave will continue to move across the region on
Saturday. Instability is better by Saturday afternoon with MUCAPE
of up to 2500 j/kg in the southwest and deep layer shear up to 30
kts. The day 2 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center brings a
marginal risk into the southwest and south central parts of the
state, along with a very small slight risk area which looks

A few showers could linger into Sunday morning towards the
southern James River Valley, but most of the forecast area should
dry out as a H5 ridge builds in from Montana. The ridge quickly
breaks down / moves east with southwesterly flow taking hold early
next week. This will bring more chances of rain, especially for
the first half of the week. Overall, the blended model guidance
has a good handle on the long term period trends and did not stray
far from what it gave.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF forecast
period. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon into tonight. These will mainly impact western TAF
sites. Light winds this morning will become east at 5 to 15 kts.




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