Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 060043
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
643 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 643 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Will reassess in the next hour whether to expire or extend the
winter weather advisory across the west. Light snow will continue,
the main question is if the winds will diminish or not. Model
analysis suggests yes and current observations not showing
drastically reduced visibilities within the advisory area at this
time. For now will leave be with this product issuance.

Main update was to POPs and sky cover, to adjust based on latest
high res model runs. Frontal boundary will shift westward late
tonight into Wednesday, and will result in clouds trending
scattered to clear east to west into the day Wednesday along with
snow chances decreasing. Overnight lows were also bumped up west
where cloud cover lingers and for those locations west of the
frontal boundary.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Current surface analysis places deep low over Ontario while high
stretches from the Pacific northwest towards the southern plains.
A weak secondary low/boundary continues to settle through western
portions of North Dakota. Upper level analysis places low over
Ontario with broad fast cyclonic flow over our area. Broad area of
light snow continues in the vicinity of the aforementioned
boundary, while gusty winds over western portions of the area
continue to result in areas of blowing snow and reduced
visibilities.

For the rest of this afternoon into tonight...broader area of snow
will continue to settle to the south, but models continue to show
some snow showers lingering over the area, with a primary line
stretched along a boundary draped over western North Dakota. Winds
will continue into this evening, strongest over the west, so will
allow the advisory to continue into this evening. Some patchy
blowing snow will then continue overnight.

On Wednesday...broad cyclonic flow remains over the area which
will bring continued snow chances mainly over western locations.
Breezy northwest winds will result in patchy blowing snow
throughout the area. Quiet weather returns Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Quiet conditions are expected the rest of the week as the main
weather maker, the Hudson Bay low, shifts further east. A very
modest warming trend will develop as well. An active weather
pattern is expected to re-develop to start the upcoming week
bringing precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)

Issued at 643 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

Light snow and MVFR conditions continue west and central tonight,
with conditions improving late tonight into Wednesday morning
from east to west. VFR all terminals after 18Z Wednesday.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening
for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...NH



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