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000
FXUS63 KBIS 090711
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
111 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE AS THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK
AND BLENDED TO THE 05-07 UTC OBSERVED TRENDS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...SCATTERED STRATUS WITH FLURRIES HARD TO
PICK UP ON RADAR AND SATELLITE WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES STEADY IF NOT
SLIGHTLY RISING SOME LOCATIONS THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND SOME
MIXING. EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS SUBSIDE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A REINFORCED
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 715 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

ARCTIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST...NOW DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST...INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AND ISOLATED FLURRIES
ALONG TO BEHIND THE FROPA. FURTHER IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALONG WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING TO MORE WESTERLY.

STILL EXPECT THE CLIPPER MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSIONS BELOW TO
IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY.

MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WAS TO REINTRODUCE
FLURRIES INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING WITH SEVERAL
OBSERVING SITES REPORTING LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 309 PM
CST SUN DEC 8 2013

MAIN ISSUES ARE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW WIND
CHILLS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WEAK ECHO RETURNS OF LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ARE FINALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE HIGH POP/LOW QPF COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
TROUGH REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE MAINLY RESULTING IN A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY -15F TO -20F. THESE
LOW TEMPS COMBINED WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILLS OF -30F TO -35F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM ARE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEING
ISSUED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN AND MOST
OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HEADLINES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWING UP ON THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT...AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
A DECISION WAS MADE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING
SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN AND MOST OF
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE  LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURE/ALBERTA
CLIPPER RESIDING OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS UNDERNEATH THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT AT
INUVIK/CYEV...AND NORMAN WELLS/CYVQ...HAVE BEEN INDICATING LIGHT
SNOW WITH WINDS BETWEEN 21KT AND 34KT...AND VISIBILITIES OF AROUND
ONE MILE. THESE UPSTREAM TRENDS WILL BE REPRESENTATIVE IN
WESTERN/NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
NAM/GFS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25KT TO 30KT WITH A MAXIMUM
COLD AIR ADVECTION POCKET COMMENCING BY 00Z-06Z IN THE WEST. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A 7 TO 10MB/6HR PRESSURE RISE SLIDING INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z TUESDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ALSO
FORECAST WITH THE CLIPPER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE
COMBINATION OF EXISTING LOOSE SNOW...THE STRONG WINDS...AND
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF AROUND ONE INCH...WILL PRODUCE LOW
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
IT IS POSSIBLE AN EXTENSION OF THIS ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER
EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY EVENING...BUT BY THAT TIME WE WILL HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON HOW THINGS ARE VERIFYING IN THE WEST. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS SUBSIDE TOWARD 06Z AS AS EVERYTHING MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH IN THIS AREA FOR
AN ADVISORY AND FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT IN THOSE COUNTIES NOT IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

A WIND CHILL HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING FOR WINDS CHILLS TO 35 BELOW.

FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR/WEAKER
CLIPPER SYSTEM COMES INTO PLAY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW MAINLY WEST AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL. WIND CHILL VALUES
TO 35 DEVELOP IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST WIND CHILL HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED.

FOR WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COLD FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL WHERE A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
ADVECTION PRODUCES LIGHT SNOW ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A SEMI-AGITATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING AND
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES INTERACTING WITH IT RESULT IN PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW. THE COLD AIR IS EVENTUALLY SCOURED OUT BY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO
THE 20S WITH MID 30S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CST MON DEC 9 2013

ANOTHER NIGHT OF SCATTERED STRATUS DECKS WITH FLURRIES THAT ARE
HARD TO SEE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR NDZ001>004-009>012-
017>019-021-031>033-040-041-043-044.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD