Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271129
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
629 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

INITIAL WAVE AHEAD OF LOW CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. BROAD CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THIS
AREA AND REGIONAL RADARS ARE INDICATING A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER
THIS AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THEREFORE...FOR MORNING
UPDATE HAVE ADDED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF I-94 FROM BISMARCK
TO JAMESTOWN. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

STRONG WINDS TODAY ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...WITH A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY WAS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A STRONGER
SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MONTANA. AT UPPER LEVELS...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS OVER
THE BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MONTANA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO WYOMING AND COLORADO/UTAH. PLENTY OF UPSTREAM
ENERGY IMPULSES WERE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...BRINGING COOLER AIR...INCREASING CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE...ALONG THE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH AROUND 40-45 KNOTS AT H850. ADDED
GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES TO THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED ARE MINIMAL...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
NOT AN ISSUE. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
MUCH...WITH LOWS FROM THE 25 TO 35 RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING AS UPPER
LOW WORKS ITS WAY OFF TO THE EAST AND RIDGE PUSHES OVER THE
ROCKIES. COOL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA BRINGING
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BIT MILDER TEMPERATURES...THOUGH A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY FOR HALLOWEEN WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING MILD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND. MODELS BRING THE NEXT TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT IN ON SUNDAY BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AROUND
12Z AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO
KISN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR CIGS SPREAD TO KDIK AND KMOT DURING
THE MORNING...AND KBIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND REACHING KJMS BY
AROUND 03Z. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT MAINLY AFTER
00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV






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