


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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716 FXUS63 KBIS 092102 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 402 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions are expected into this evening. Dangerous heat index values expected across south central North Dakota through much of the evening. - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening, and again Thursday afternoon into the night. - Temperatures will cool down to the 70s on Friday, before warming back up again for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Hot and humid conditions with chances for severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening. Southerly flow along a warm front has brought dewpoints into the 70s for much of central and southern North Dakota. The hottest areas in this moist southerly flow could see heat index values above 100 degrees through much of the evening. A Heat Advisory remains and was expanded slightly eastward through much of this evening. Meanwhile, a pseudo dry line is currently progressing across western and portions of central North Dakota. As this boundary meets the moist unstable air mass, isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible tonight. MUCAPE is very high and up to 6000 J/KG, with surface based CAPE about the same and becomes uncapped late this afternoon and early this evening. There is a lack of shear forecast, with effective bulk shear 25 to 30 knots through the evening. The shear vector is angled to near perpendicular to the mentioned boundary. Thus discrete cells are possible initially along this boundary this afternoon and early evening, likely forming into a line as storms progress through the evening. Initial threats will be large and abundant hail with the high amounts of CAPE expected. The lack of shear may limit the size of hail to around golf ball size. As storms collapse if a linear mode takes over, strong wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are possible given DCAPE values over 1000 J/KG. East of Highway 83 would be the area to monitor for a tornado or two this evening given high amount of SRH and 0 to 1 km wind shear. Uncertainty on storm mode, if it is still discrete by the time storms move into this area later this evening, could be the limiting factor for tornadoes today. Something to monitor throughout the evening. Slow moving thunderstorms and high pwat values today could also lead to some locally heavy rainfall through this evening. Initial thunderstorms push eastward tonight, although a few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the west and central through tonight, with a low chance of severe weather in this additional development. Lows tonight look to be in the 60s. True cold front looks to push through on Thursday. This could bring an isolated threat for severe weather to much of the state. Instability and shear look to be lower for Thursday, and SPC now has a Marginal Risk across much of the state for severe weather. Slower moving thunderstorms and high PWAT values could bring another locally heavy rain threat on Thursday, with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the east. Temperatures will again be warm for Thursday, with slightly cooler temperatures in the northwest. Lower dewpoints should lower the heat risk for most areas, although could be something to monitor in the east. Front fully moves through Thursday evening through the night. Chances for showers and thunderstorms could be found as this moves through, with perhaps an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. Lows behind the front will be in 50s west to 60s east. A post frontal day then looks to be found on Friday with highs in the 70s and a few lingering showers and thunderstorms, with low chances for severe weather. Some breezy northwest winds could also be found. Lows Friday night look to be quite cool with lows in the 50s to perhaps upper 40s in some areas. Shower and thunderstorm chances also diminish Friday night. Weak ridging then looks in store for the weekend. Temperatures look to warm each day with 80s to lower 90s forecast. Chances for precipitation also look limited through the weekend. Precipitation chances return to start the work week. NSSL machine learning guidance has some low probabilities for severe weather Monday and Tuesday. Warm temperatures in the 80s and 90s could continue for Monday, then perhaps cool into the 70s on Tuesday behind the front. Perhaps some breezy winds are found behind this cold front, although the signal for strong winds is currently not found. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period, with some showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. Look for clear to partly cloudy skies today. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return this afternoon and continue through this evening, mainly for southern, central, and eastern sites. Confidence was only high enough to include PROB30 mention in TAFs at this point. An isolated to scattered severe storm is possible through this evening. Shower and thunderstorm activity becomes isolated tonight into Thursday morning, with confidence not high enough to include precipitation mention. Overall VFR conditions expected through tonight, with brief MVFR conditions possible with any thunderstorm activity. Southerly winds today will eventually become a westerly wind throughout the forecast period as a front moves across the state from west to east. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ019-020-034>036-042-045>048-050-051. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin