Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191700
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

No significant changes to the early afternoon update other than
bumping up temperatures in a few more areas. Also updated sky
cover based on latest satellite imagery.

UPDATE Issued at 923 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

No significant updates other than populating latest sensible
weather elements and interpolating to late morning temperatures.
Did bump up temperatures a couple of degrees most areas. Made some
minor adjustments to sky cover based on latest satellite. No
changes to current wind advisory. Latest 06 UTC NAM/GFS soundings
indicate marginal criteria extending toward the Minot area. But
Nothing sticks out enough at this time to expand the current
advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Only minor changes were made with this update, namely to eliminate
the rest of the low-end shower/storm chances over north central ND
early this morning. The surface cold front extends from near Minot
to Dickinson and Hettinger at 11 UTC and will continue shifting to
the southeast this morning. An area of low clouds has formed just
behind the front over western and north central ND, but we expect
them to lift and erode by about 15 UTC as the boundary layer mixes
thanks to diurnal heating and increasing mechanical turbulence as
winds increase behind the front.

UPDATE Issued at 454 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Quick update to cancel the rest of the severe thunderstorm watch
in north central ND and to reduce PoPs there the remainder of the
pre-dawn hours. RAP model soundings show increasing capping aloft
and radar and satellite imagery show no evidence of additional
convective development behind the cluster of intense storms which
is racing eastward around 50 kt and which is in northeast ND as of
0950 UTC. Thus, we are confident that the risk of severe weather
is over with.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Current surface analysis places low over far southwest North
Dakota with warm front looping through north central into
northeast North Dakota. Upper level analysis places series of
subtle short waves moving through the northern plains. Robust
convection continues over northern portions of North Dakota where
strong instability (2-3 KJ/KG) along with very impressive deep
layer shear (~60 kts) are noted. Storms will continue their
eastward progression through the early morning hours.

For the rest of today...storms should push to the east by around
or shortly after sunrise. Cold front will swoop through the area
bringing temperature and humidity relief to most locations...with
the southern James River Valley being the possible exception as
the front may not approach until early/mid afternoon. Windy
conditions expected behind the front, especially over northwest
and west-central portions of the state where cool air advection
may allow stronger winds aloft to mix down. A wind advisory will
be posted over that area. Winds diminish in the evening with a
quiet night expected.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Quiet weather expected Monday through Tuesday afternoon as upper
ridge passes over the area.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday...a shortwave trough working
through the Pacific Northwest scoots into and through the upper
ridge. In doing so, moisture advection increases with
thunderstorms initiating along and ahead a surface low as it
slides into western and central North Dakota. The shortwave trough
exits Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

Occasional thunderstorm chances expected to end the week as a few
weak disturbances push through the area. Near to slightly above
average temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2016

Vfr cigs/vsbys next 24hr. Gusty northwest winds sustained at 20kt
and gusts to 35kt at all terminals except KJMS where winds will be
slightly lower.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...TWH



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