Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250441
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST/TURTLE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND ALSO
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A COUPLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHIFTING THROUGH MONTANA
AND WYOMING. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS. THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF BOWMAN AND
HETTINGER MOVING EAST WITH TIME. FARTHER UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING...A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST TRENDS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR AND 00Z DATA. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...REMOVING AFTER AN
HOUR OR SO. NEXT ROUND OF WEAK WAVES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
THESE SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN AREAS...BRINGING LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION OVER
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITHE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A
CU FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY. THE
FORECAST TRENDS IN THE HRRR PLACE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NAM/GFS
ARE DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING BUT DONT THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY.
WILL FOLLOW THE DRYER NAM SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL BRING THE H500 RIDGE
THROUGH THE STATE. THIS POSITIONS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST US TO BRING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. WILL TREND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
CENTRAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THEN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY
MID-WEEK.

ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPS WEAK
WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY WEAK BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FRONT RANGE...INCREASES MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE FORECAST CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK (MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT). WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE WORDING JUST YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS LIFT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA...BUT ALSO MOVES A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR TO OUR REGION. LOOKING AT HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER A VCTS WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
TERMINALS SATURDAY...WITH KDIK IN LINE WITH THE EARLIEST ONSET AND
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY HAVING SOME PREDOMINATE MENTION OF PRECIPIATION AT
SOME OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS


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