Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261423
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
923 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

AS OF 14 UTC...THE OCCLUDING WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST MONTANA...THROUGH BOWMAN AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...ENTERING THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING
AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM IN AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOOKS
TO BE A BIT OF CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. HAVE ALSO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF
SURFACE TROUGH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM LAKE WINNIPEG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM ALBERTA ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA TO EASTERN WYOMING. THIS HAS SET UP A RATHER
TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT RESULTING IN A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
STATE...WITH THE STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AT THIS TIME.

AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS TODAY. THE
SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL DEVELOP/MOVE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW IS IS
FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING...REACHING
THE JAMES VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD WARM ADVECTION AHEAD AND
ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOWER
60S NORTH AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS WILL ACT TO BRING
A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA TONIGHT AND
APPROACHES THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. HAVE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
MAIN ENERGY FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

UPPER TROUGH/LOW WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION BEHIND PROGRESSING FRONT. MOST OF
THE LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH...THOUGH EXPECT
SOME PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH. GREATEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...PARTICULARLY
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE AMPLE MIXING DEVELOPS
RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO GIVE THIS ANOTHER LOOK ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO SEE IF A HEADLINE WILL BE NECESSARY. INTO THE
EVENING SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SLOW EASTERLY TRACK AS COLD AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH IN WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW...PARTICULARLY
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. IF ANY DOES OCCUR EXPECT IT TO BE VERY LIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPERING THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH MOST LOCATIONS BELOW AVERAGE.

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY EAST. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND...THOUGH STILL SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER THE WARMING WILL START
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. EITHER WAY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY FOR
HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL REACH KISN/KDIK
AROUND 14Z-15Z...WHEN WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE STATE. BY 18Z
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WITH WESTERLY WINDS REACHES
KISN/KDIK...MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY
PUSH OF MUCH COLDER AIR TAKES PLACE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS BEYOND THIS CURRENT TAF
CYCLE AND MVFR STRATUS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






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