Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
327 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Forecast highlights today and tonight - a very warm day ahead
with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees above average for this
time of year. A potent cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast tonight, prompting wind concerns for northern North
Dakota, followed by fire weather concerns Wednesday. Please see
the fire weather discussion below for further details.

Sunny, with breezy conditions evolving this afternoon with
southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Afternoon highs will range from 80F
in south central ND (includes Bismarck), to mid and upper 70s
elsewhere. In the far north, highs will be around 70F.

A dry, but very strong cold front in terms of an abrupt wind
increase and a temperature change, will plow through northwest
North Dakota near midnight, and quickly sweep through central ND
overnight. West to northwest winds will increase, with the
strongest winds along and north of Highway 2 tonight. GFS Bufkit
soundings near Sherwood would favor a brief period of high wind
warning criteria being met, while the NAM is not quite as strong.
3hr pressure rises of 4mb to 5mb push through western and northern
ND tonight with steep low level lapse rates. A solid wind
advisory looks in order tonight in the north, and will let the
dayshift have another look with the latest data.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Wednesday will feature strong winds from sunrise through late
afternoon and early evening before diminishing. Sustained winds
of 20 to 35 mph will encompass all of western and central North
Dakota, with wind gusts mostly between 35 and 45 mph. Wind
advisory headlines will likely be needed for northern ND and into
the James River Valley. Much cooler Wednesday with highs in the
mid 50s north to lower 60s south.

Thursday and Friday will feature another significant warmup,
similar to Tuesday. No record highs anticipated, but high
temperatures both days will reach well into the 70s along with
a few lower 80s. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph can be expected
both days. Another strong cold front will push through from west
to east Friday night. The upper trough follows quickly with a
period of strong synoptic scale ascent across western/central ND.
This results in a high chance for rainshowers late Friday night
through Saturday morning. Breezy and much cooler Saturday with
highs in the 50s. Another system quickly follows for Sunday and
Monday with another surge of cooler air and chances for rainshowers.
Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the 50s to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

SKC dominates this TAF period, however periods of low level wind
shear will affect all terminals. A weak warm front propagating
from west to east through mid Tuesday morning will result in
stronger westerly winds just above ground level. Low level wind
shear returns after 00z Wednesday as southwest winds aloft increase
in advance of a potent cold front which pushes into KISN at 06z


Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Based solely on expected sustained winds and minimum relative
humidity criteria Wednesday afternoon, critical fire weather
conditions would likely cover a good portion central North Dakota.
However, the latest fuel status, both from FMOs/Fire Management
Officers, and observational equipment, reflect fuels that have
not fully cured enough to sufficiently produce/sustain a rapid
rate of spread needed for critical fire weather conditions and
hence a Fire Weather Watch or a Red Flag Warning. Will let the
dayshift evaluate this again (if needed), with any additional
Fire Management Officers. Sustained westerly winds 20 to 35 mph,
combined with minimum relative humidities of between 20 and 25
percent are forecast to coincide across most of central North
Dakota, with the Turtle Mountains and the James River Valley
experiencing the strongest winds.




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