Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 291756
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

ONLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON WAS TO CUT BACK ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IS PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
LIFT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST...WITH AREAS OF FOG. AS YOU GO NORTH
AND EAST...MOISTURE IS MORE SCARCE...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED LOW CEILINGS AND FOG. THIS AREA COULD BREAK OUT
LATER TODAY BUT THE SOUTHWEST WILL REMAIN UNDER LOW CLOUDS WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE
WARRANTED. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES WERE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. ONLY
ADJUSTED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE LOW WAS OVER COLORADO. THIS WAS KEEPING A
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WAS PROMOTING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REGENERATING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN...AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
APPARENTLY THE VERY WEAK TAIL END OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SHOWERS. THUS HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THERE UNTIL
DAYBREAK.

MEANWHILE...THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUED MOVING
NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WYOMING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING MAINLY OVER THE BLACK
HILLS...BUT RECENT CONVECTION IS EVIDENT ON RADARS IN THE PLAINS
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE LOW ROUNDS ITS BASE AND
LEADS THE LOW AS IT LIFTS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA BY TUESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...PLENTY OF LEADING UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRECEDES THE MAIN LOW AND WILL PROVIDE GOOD
INSTABILITY - ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN
MONTANA/WYOMING - TODAY AND TONIGHT.

BEST CHANCES TODAY FOR SHOWERS IS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
STATE. TONIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE
BEGINNING THIS EVENING...AND STORM PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.75 TO 1.50 OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 8 -
HALLIDAY/RICHARDTON/LEMMON SD LINE) FROM TODAY THROUGH DAYBREAK
TUESDAY MORNING.

REGARDING TEMPERATURES...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY TODAY WITH
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY MAINLY 50 TO 60. LOWS
TONIGHT 40 TO 50.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A POTENT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE DAKOTAS
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUED TO PAINT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. ALSO CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER AS THE COLD CORE OF THE
SHORTWAVE LIFTS OVER THE STATE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

ON WEDNESDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...INDICATED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH
WEDNESDAY.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS THEN
PROGGED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE ON THURSDAY...LEADING TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL LEAD TO A DRY CONDITIONS STATEWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW HIGHS TO GET INTO THE 50S FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AT AT UTC. EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING AROUND KJMS TO POSSIBLY KMOT...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ESPECIALLY AT KDIK
WITH ENHANCEMENT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AROUND KDIK TODAY...BUT SPREAD INTO KISN...KMOT AND KBIS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF
AT KJMS UNTIL AFTER 18 UTC TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH







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