Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 031721
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1221 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
ADDRESS THIS IN EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. HAVE ALSO CLEARED OFF
CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO LITTLE BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...THOUGH
HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST HOUR IN LINE WITH HIGH RES
GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...DRYING OUT BY MID-DAY. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING...CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET ALOFT SUPPORTING A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONLY VERY LIGHT
AMOUNTS EXPECTED AND THESE SHOWERS SHOULD END BY MID MORNING
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL CLEARING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MADE SMALL
UPDATED TO POPS AND CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH
DAKOTA WITH A 90KT 300MB JET SLIDING OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.
A SHORTWAVE WAS SEEN CIRCULATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SOME
INTERACTION/PLAY BETWEEN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE JET ATOP AN H85-H5 BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW ENHANCED VERTICAL MOTION/OMEGA FIELD MAXING OUT AT AROUND
500MB WHERE THE HIGHEST RH IS LOCATED. DRIER AIR WAS SEEN BELOW
THIS LEVEL. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT CEILING OBSERVATIONS
WHICH SHOW MOST CLOUD BASES AROUND 10-11KFT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE THE BOWMAN RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN
AREA OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY`S. IT WOULD APPEAR BASED ON RADAR THAT
THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITYS HAVE LARGELY BEEN IN BETWEEN OBSERVING/REPORTING
STATIONS...BUT WITH CLOUD BASES NOT LOWERING MUCH BELOW 10KFT...THINKING
IS MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS AREA WELL THROUGH 12Z AS IT PUSHES IT
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE WEAKENING IT AT THE SAME
TIME. THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO END BY AROUND
15Z. A MOSTLY SKY WILL RETURN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70 IN THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
VEER AROUND FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY
ADVECTING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHC BY 12Z MONDAY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE
NORTH ARE FORECAST CLOSE TO FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA/35-36F...BUT
FOR NOW WITH AREAL COVERAGE MINIMAL...WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINE. THE
DAY SHIFT CAN LOOK FURTHER INTO THIS WITH THE LATEST DATA AND
ADJUST IF NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THE WESTERLY FLOWS TO ONE DOMINATED BY
A LARGE MIGRATING UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST THAT BRINGS A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THE CURRENT TREND OF AT LEAST A DECENT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH CONTINUED CHANCES THEREAFTER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

UNTIL THEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY WITH JUST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS
BOTH DAYS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
US WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE ASTERN US, THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEND IMPULSES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OPEN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE EQUATION. WENT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY COOL A BIT AS CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COOLING INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
20 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRIEFLY ALIGN WITH WIND GUSTS TO
25 MPH. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH GRAND FORKS WEATHER OFFICE...WE
DECIDED TO FORGO A RED FLAG WARNING BASED ON THE FACT THAT WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
REACH THEIR MINIMUM. THAT LEAVES ROUGHLY A 3HR WINDOW WHERE
CONDITIONS WILL MARGINALLY ALIGN...FROM AROUND 20Z TO 23Z. DUE TO
A MARGINAL EVENT WITH LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION...THIS
IS BEST HANDLED AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
DISCUSSION AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY CHANGES THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...KS



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