Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130621
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1221 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

The center of the surface arctic high pressure was over Minnesota.
Southerly winds had developed over the western Dakotas with steady
temperatures. Expect temperatures in the west to begin rising
through the early morning hours with warm advection commencing. May
take a while longer for central ND...with current temps around 20
below...and temps in the central may be steady for much of the early
morning hours. Models still hinting at some mid level clouds
developing/moving northward from SD early this morning, which would
help increase surface temperatures. Current forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 939 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Frigid wind chills continue with the coldest readings of around 45
below zero showing up over north central into far northwest North
Dakota at this time. A few clouds have been showing up from time
to time over various parts of the area, but have been forming and
dissipating rather quickly. This has lead to some temperature
moderation for very brief periods, but as the clouds move along or
dissipate temperatures drop right back down to where they were.

UPDATE Issued at 647 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Frigid wind chills continue to develop with a few locations
already dipping to 40 below. Going forecast reflects this well and
updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Dangerous wind chills through Friday morning highlight the short
term forecast.

Arctic high pressure across western and central North Dakota this
afternoon will propagate into the Upper Mississippi Valley Friday
morning. Thus, given a cold start to the evening expect a rapid
drop in to the -20 to -25 degree range central this evening and
-10 to -15 west. Thereafter, return flow commences with a rising
temperature trend late tonight into Friday morning. However, this
increasing return flow will lead to dangerous wind chills to as
low as 45 below across much of the central and northwest during
the early overnight before temperatures begin to sufficiently
rebound. Thus, have issued a Wind Chill Warning for most of
central and far northwest North Dakota through Friday morning with
a Wind Chill Advisory elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Moderating temperatures this weekend into next week highlight the
extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite is in agreement on split flow across much
of the central CONUS this weekend into early next week,
potentially transitioning to zonal thereafter. This favors a
warming trend to near normal temperatures this weekend and
possibly above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Surface arctic
high center was over Minnesota with broad low pressure along the Lee
of the Rockies. Expect southerly winds over western ND to
continue...and winds in eastern ND will be light and become
southerly during the early morning hours. Models are hinting at some
VFR ceilings possible around daybreak with the warm advection flow
at mid levels of the troposphere.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ001>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037.

Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ this morning for
NDZ009-017-018-031>033-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
AVIATION...JV



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