Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 132006
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
306 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front dropping south will bring very low clouds and a
  slight (20%) of a rain snow mix along the International border
  tonight.

- Patchy fog tonight in the north central and northeast.

- Slight cooldown Thursday, turning to well above average
  temperatures Friday, with another cooldown to average this
  weekend.

- Breezy this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The area of fog on the Missouri Coteau still continues in Burke
and northern Ward counties. Visibility is much better than
earlier today and should continue to improve. Tonight a cold
front dropping south out of Canada will bring very low stratus
clouds and slightly breezier winds Thursday. These low clouds
will most likely also be in the form of fog. Based on the fog
performance of the NAM NEST today, we went with that for timing
again tonight. Along the front as well, a slight chance (20%) of
a rain/snow mix is possible on the border.

With the low clouds overnight, temperatures will be mild again
in the upper 20s and lower 30s tonight. Thursday with the
blanket of clouds, high temperatures will only slightly warm
into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Friday we get back into the 50s with northwest flow and warmer
850mb temperatures. A clipper will then pass by north and east
of us Friday. This will create a tighter pressure gradient over
the state. However cold air advection and a high pressure
bubble is not evident in the models. So we lowered the NBM
winds, because they were advisory level, using a mix of the NBM
and NBM Experimental Friday to Friday night around midnight.
Saturday there is some cold air advection and a slight pressure
bubble so we left winds as is for now. Strongest winds Saturday
should be in the lower James River Valley. Temperatures will be
back down around average Saturday and Sunday.

The rest of the forecast period has uncertainty with where a
ridge axis will be located. The temperature spread in the NBM is
large still. Looks like either way we will be slightly above
average.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR this evening with northerly winds as high as 10kts. A cold
front will move in from the north bringing a wind shift to the
north with gusts around 15kts overnight. LIFR ceilings still
look to come in with is and stick around all day Thursday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith


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