Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241846
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
146 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS CLEARING THE CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. UPDATES AGAIN WERE MAINLY FOR SKY
COVER AND SHOWERS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED NEAR MINOT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA. DRY SLOT HAS PUSHED
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE STATE. SOME PEAKS OF SUN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL WILL LIKELY CLOUD OVER LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. CHANGES WERE MAINLY TO SKY COVER AND
POPS BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE DRY SLOT HAS PRETTY MUCH TAKEN OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.

RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY ROTATING SOUTH OVER EASTERN MONTANA IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA LATER TODAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH SHOULD NOT
CAUSE ADDITIONAL RUN-OFF ISSUES.

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE
TO THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS.
THE FRESHENED UP PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WITH ITS SURFACE REFLECTION NOW LOCATED OVER
TURTLE LAKE IN MCLEAN COUNTY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE A
NORTHWARD JAUNT FOLLOWING THE 3HR MAX PRESSURE FALLS WHICH WERE
LOCATED IN SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY ADVANCES NORTHEAST
TODAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CIRCULATING AROUND IT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH AS THERE WILL BE A LULL
IN THE PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND MOVES IN.
NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH...BUT THE
GROUND WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB THIS. EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTERNOON THUS
EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM
LIKELY TODAY TO ISOLATED ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER 06Z MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS SOUTH TONIGHT. ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO MID 70S IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S WEST TO AROUND 50 ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW LIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO. WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH READINGS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO ENTER
EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE.

A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY WITH
WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT GENERATING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KISN-KMOT THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK SHOULD LIFT TO LOW VFR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING.
KBIS AND KJMS EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE KNIFE RIVER NEAR HAZEN AND
FOR SPRING CREEK AT ZAP AS RIVER LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE INTO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.

AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RADAR
ESTIMATES WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL REPORTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

AN AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MID MORNING
SUNDAY ACROSS LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OCCURRING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...KS






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