Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 211822
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

WILL AGAIN REVISIT THE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. VERY GOOD MIXING
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. THINKING LOWER 50S NORTH
CENTRAL A GOOD BET THIS AFTERNOON. RAISED HIGHS ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGREES MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

GOOD SOUTHWEST MIXING WIND EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO
THE LOWER 30S SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL. THIS LOOKS GOOD FOR
HIGHS AROUND 40 TODAY. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO CLOUDS TO INDICATE MORE
SUNSHINE TODAY AND RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST. FARTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS (WHICH OCCURRED BEFORE
MIDNIGHT) IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY SCATTERED MID AND THIN HIGH CLOUDS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE
UPDATE LOWERED SKY COVER MOST AREAS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WARM FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AROUND NOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY...AND AROUND 40 FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
STATE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...BUT COLD AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN IN THE WEST TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

AFTER A MILD START ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MID LEVEL S/WV TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE MONTANA ROCKIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL TRIGGER LEE SIDE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE...COUPLED WITH A S/WV
RIDGE MOVING EAST AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL RESULT IN
MILD DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY...MID/UPPER 30S MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST.

WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE AND DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SEE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MATERIALIZING IN THE AFTERNOON WEST.
WILL KEEP P-TYPE AS ALL RAIN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UP THROUGH
800-750MB ABOVE FREEZING.

FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND P-TYPE
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKING TO GENERALLY SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN BY 00 UTC SUNDAY AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL ND/SE MANITOBA BY 12 UTC SUNDAY...THE GREATEST
THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST FROM THE WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES THAT WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN AT
MINOT AND DEVILS LAKE. FARTHER SOUTH...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY
DRY...BUT THE LATEST 21 NOV 06 UTC NAM IS DEPICTING AN AREA OF WARM
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SPREADING WEST TO EAST AND EXTENDING SOUTH TO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIG FACTOR
AS TO IF THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTH
IF THE NAM SHOULD VERIFY. FOR THE TIME BEING USED A MODEL BLEND
WHICH KEEPS PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL.
THIS DOES RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY
EVENING...INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE MORE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF WEST/CENTRAL ND WITH FORECAST QPF ON AVERAGE
CLOSER TO A TRACE TO THE SOUTH.

COLD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z SUNDAY AND
MODELS ARE NOT SPREADING THE QPF AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR...THUS WILL
NOT MENTION ANY MIX AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. WILL MENTION THE WINTRY MIX
IN THE HWO SATURDAY NIGHT AND CLOSELY MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE
COMING DAYS.

NEXT WEATHER IMPACT QUICKLY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE REST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE LATE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD INTO THIS WEEKEND. FOR BLOWING SNOW
IMPACTS...THINK IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK SHOULD HAVE CRUSTED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TUESDAY-FRIDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TRACKS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT
TIMEFRAME WHICH WOULD BRING ANOTHER SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR LASTING
INTO THANKSGIVING. LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME RESOLVING THE COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT THANKSGIVING WILL BE COLD...BUT THEY HAVE
FLIPPED THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING UPPER
RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT COLD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

DRY SOUTHWEST AIRFLOW EXPECTED AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT. VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






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