Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211155
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
655 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

No significant changes made to forecast. Blended most recent
observations into forecast, mainly to match temperatures.
Otherwise, radar shows some weak returns across the west, but
webcams show dry conditions and no reports of any precip reaching
the ground.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

The main focus for the short term is the potential for severe
storms late this afternoon through the overnight hours.

Strong return flow will continue to advect moisture into the
region today. Exactly how much moisture is able to return remains
to be seen. Models indicate enough moisture will pool along the
trough just in time for thunderstorm development late this
afternoon and evening. While an elevated warm layer aloft will
accompany the approaching surface low, afternoon heating and
strong forcing should overcome any remaining cap by the late
afternoon and evening. With steep lapse rates, very strong shear
(around 80 knots of 0-6 KM possible), low and upper level ascent
and modest instability...discrete supercells capable of producing
all types of severe weather (including tornadoes) are possible.
While hodographs indicate a very strong veering profile
throughout, limited moisture and high LCLs may act to limit the
threat for tornadoes. During the overnight hours, short term
models are indicating a line segment or QLCS will develop and push
eastward across the State.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

Thunderstorms diminish Wednesday and breezy northwest winds
develop. An upper low will track across the northern Rockies and
into the northern plains by Friday. This will bring a chance of
showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Temperatures
through the week will fall generally in the 70s and 80s except
for some 90s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through most of the period. Showers
and thunderstorms will begin to affect the far west late this
afternoon and spread eastward this evening. Some of these storms
could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Locations
directly under any of these storms could drop down briefly to
IFR/MVFR.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JNS



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