Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 040030
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Latest surface analysis shows low pressure over southeast
Saskatchewan with a surface trough southward through western North
Dakota. Pressure falls continue over central and eastern ND with
an area of isentropic lift working its way eastward across central
ND. This is producing a north to south band of snow which will
make its way across central ND in the next few hours. Have bumped
up pops across central ND with snow just beginning in the Minot
area and a narrow band poised to move through Mandan and Bismarck
shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

For the near term late this afternoon, a shortwave was seen
approaching Aberdeen with some increase in radar reflectivity`s
near Oakes and Ludden. For now, it appears the main swath of
precipitation remains just south and east of the border and will
keep pops out of the southern James River Valley at this time.

Latest water vapor imagery shows our main shortwave trough aloft
now working its way into southwestern Saskatchewan with an
attending surface trough across eastern MT. Radar reflectivity`s
were increasing over northeast Mt this afternoon. Isentropic
upglide per GFS 290K pressure surface will continue to propagate
across western and central ND this evening into tonight. Will
maintain a chance of light snow across western and central ND with
a dusting of snowfall, except in the Turtle Mts where up to one
inch is possible.

The light snow exits our eastern zones before daybreak Sunday with
a transitory 700mb-500mb shortwave ridge arriving during the
daylight hours. This will keep western and central ND dry with a
mix of sun and clouds for most of the day before overcast conditions
begin to impinge into northwest ND Sunday afternoon. Highs Sunday
will generally be around 30F with mid 30s southwest. This will be
our warmest day for the next several days.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Main headline continues to be snow, blowing snow Monday; then
blustery northwest winds and frigid temperatures both leading
towards dangerous wind chills Tuesday through Thursday. Will be
re-issuing an SPS to reiterate and highlight dangerous wind
chills to 30 below zero for Tuesday through Thursday of next
week; and the potential for an advisory or possible blizzard
headlines in our northeastern zones Monday evening through Monday
night. At this time, models show varying placements on where the
strongest forcing will occur. The GFS favors the north, while the
NAM favors a more southwest to northeast alignment. The latest EC
resembles the NAM but with less snowfall. Right now, snowfall
expectations for several inches resides from the northern James
River Valley into the Turtle Mts where 4 to 6 inches is currently
forecast. Elsewhere expect 1 to 3 inches for all but the northwest
and southern James River Valley - where these areas look to miss
the main brunt of the snow. The Baggaley snow model suggests an
advisory is likely in the Turtle Mts with possible Blizzard
conditions. Will let subsequent shifts assess the latest data. For
now, the SPS and HWO/Hazardous Weather Outlook will serve to advertise
the above.

Dangerous cold air/wind chills set in Tuesday through Thursday
with blustery winds through this period. The weather pattern
remains active with possible snow shifting through Friday night
and Saturday, followed up by another system next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

A band of light snow has just exited western ND including KISN and
KDIK. This band will move through KMOT and KBIS in the next couple
hours, and will move to KJMS by 04-05 UTC. MVFR Cigs and Vsbys
expected with this band of snow. Behind this band, mainly mvfr
cigs and scattered snow showers. Occasional lower IFR cigs at KJMS
this evening until light snow approaches. Occasional VFR cigs
possible tonight at KDIK and KISN behind the low pressure system.
South to southwest surface flow will shift west to northwest
from west to east tonight, and eventually back to the south on
Sunday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH


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