Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281734
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH
ONLY A SMALL PATCH LEFT OVER THE FAR NORTH. THIS SHOULD BE GONE
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES PUSHING UP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOG OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAS STARTED TO DIMINISH ON ITS EDGES THIS
MORNING...THOUGH VISIBILITY STILL REMAIN QUITE LOW OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF FOG
THROUGH MID DAY OVER THIS AREA...THEN EXPECT IT TO ERODE AS WINDS
START PICKING UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...GOING
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WITH THIS UPDATE WILL REFINE THE FOG AREA. CLOUDS ARE FOG ARE
ERODING FROM THE EAST. BY MID MORNING MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG
SHOULD BE GONE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEVERAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM RANGING FROM
FOG...TO THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.

THIS MORNING WE START OUT WITH FOG ACROSS THE JAMES AND MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEYS. SOME LOCATIONS WERE ALSO EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOG AND LOW CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS WINDS INCREASE AND
SHIFT FROM AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TO DUE SOUTH...FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CEILINGS RISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 30 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE MAIN WIND EVENT WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND LATER TONIGHT FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE
THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH
(RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HIGH WIND WARNING). THE SHORT TERM HIGH RES
MODELS (WRF/RAP/HRRR) ALL HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY AROUND 4 PM CDT. FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
YEAR THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY (BETWEEN 200 AND 700 J/KG
CAPE DEPENDING WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT) TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ENHANCED UPDRAFTS...SOME
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO THE AREA
(MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER). BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VERY IMPRESSIVE STEEP PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS.
WITH PRESSURE RISES AROUND 8 OR 9 MB/3HR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
MIXING DOWN WINDS ALOFT...STRONG WINDS AROUND 40 MPH APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THEREFORE
A HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND NOT AS MILD BUT GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL.
A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME AT 500MB WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
REGULAR PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH
WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERY
PERIODS. AFTER WEDNESDAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT 500MB CENTRAL
CANADIAN LOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS OVER KJMS WILL ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LCL -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS...WITH CHANCES SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES IN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY. AREAS
OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP WITH THE FRONT. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 MPH. THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM MDT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRY LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH. ANY FIRES
COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY AND SHOW ERRATIC BEHAVIOR. DANGEROUS BURNING
CONDITIONS WILL WILL EXIST.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>004-
010>012-019>022-034>036-046-047-050.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 PM CDT /3 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040>045.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031-032-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JJS
FIRE WEATHER...WAA






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