Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300033
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
633 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER A BIT TO TIME
OUT THE EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND TO
CLEAR OUT THE WEST. HAVE ALSO LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A
BIT...MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WHERE TEMPS HAD ALREADY REACHED
PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE OVER AREAS EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED FLURRIES...ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD COVER...SHOULD DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS AN 850MB RIDGE AXIS CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION AND
USHERS IN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION TO THE MID 20S
SOUTHWEST.

DRY CONDITIONS AND A BRIEF WARM-UP IS FORECAST FRIDAY AS A WARM
FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 40S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE HUDSON BAY LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD LEADING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/MUCH COLDER PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PRODUCE ABOUT THREE LIGHT SNOW
EVENTS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF
25 BELOW TO 35 BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC 120KT JET STREAM NOW
POSITIONED NEAR 150W/40N. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY AND THEN DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
MONTANA SATURDAY. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 120KT JET WILL SERVE
TO ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
RESIDE IN EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ALOFT INTERACTING WITH IT. POPS WERE INCREASED TO
CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE WEST WITH DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND PRECIPITATION AREA. HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FORECAST. 1 TO 2 INCHES OCCUR ELSEWHERE
WITH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SEEING LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL DUE TO A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST/DRIER AIR FLOW.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED UP WITH
A LIGHT SNOW EVENT VIA WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A
HALF INCH TO 1.5 INCHES.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
SOUTH FROM CANADA. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WILL INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE
SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
KEPT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SNOW POTENTIAL MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR WITH 850MB TEMPS OF -24C TO
-28C DOMINATE WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO
POSSIBLY THE MID TEENS WEST. HOWEVER DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ULTIMATELY FALLS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THESE POTENTIAL HIGHS. RECOVERY OCCURS THURSDAY WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SCOOTING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
ALSO LOOKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MAINLY IN THE EAST CENTRAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING OVER MOST LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JJS





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