Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 182024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
324 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Weather features as of Tuesday afternoon include a cold frontal
boundary extending from low pressure across Minnesota through
South Dakota. The frontal boundary/baroclinic zone then extends
into Montana in what will remain a quasi-stationary frontal zone.
This will be the focus for increasing chances of rain across the
west and south late tonight and Wednesday.

There is some uncertainty on the potential for fog tonight. On one
hand the cool boundary layer and area of stratus across much of
central North Dakota will be favorable for fog formation as the
stratus erodes this afternoon and evening. This combined with the
abundant low level moisture from the rainfall last night would
increase the likelihood for fog. On the other hand increasing mid
level clouds may tend to inhibit fog. Will favor the fog argument
initially then diminish it late tonight as the clouds increase.

On Wednesday the best chances of rain will be south and west with
the influence of surface high pressure across the northeast
holding off precip chances there.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The extended period will be at first mainly dry as h500 fractured
flow/rex blocking across the north central CONUS Thursday and
Friday breaks down to a broad flat ridge by the weekend. This will
support at least near normal to above normal temperatures with
low or no pops until Monday and Tuesday when progressive short
wave energy brings the next chance for rain. Highs will be in the
mid 50s and 60s through the weekend then cooling to the 40s/50s
Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Low pressure over central Minnesota will continue moving east today.
High pressure over Manitoba will move south into the eastern Dakotas
and Minnesota today and tonight, while low pressure continues to
develop over the Front Range.

MVFR and IFR CIGS will continue to rotate around the departing low,
keeping MVFR and IFR conditions at KJMS through the TAF period.
MVFR/IFR CIGS at KMOT and KBIS should improve to VFR by this
evening, while KISN should improve during the afternoon. KDIK had
already improved to VFR.

Later tonight as the low pressure develops over the Front Range,
southeasterly winds will develop over western ND and MVFR/IFR
CIGS should move back into the TAF sites. Another low pressure
system will bring a chance of rain showers to western and central ND
on Wednesday...with the better chances after 18z Wednesday.




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