Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 120023
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
723 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

REGIONAL RADARS ARE DEPICTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE SURFACE. THE 00Z
KBIS SOUNDING SHOWS A VERY DRY LAYER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND
700MB. MOST...IF NOT ALL...PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE.

AS A RESULT...LOWERED POPS A BIT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THEN MAINTAINED THE CURRENT POP FORECAST FOR THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WET BULB COOLING SHOULD AID IN
SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE REMAINING FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO OTHER MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS
PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THE LATEST WINTER
WEATHER DESK GUIDANCE INDICATES BORDERLINE ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES. TIMING OF THE
RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER WILL BE CRITICAL. THUS...CONFIDENCE NOT
THAT HIGH IN GETTING A SIGNIFICANT AREA WITH 3+ INCHES...WHICH
WOULD WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THE 11/12Z ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH
TOTAL QPF NORTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT DOES SPREAD UP TO
A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST...THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DAY TIME
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BE LIMITED NORTH...BUT AFTERNOON READINGS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR
SURGE. ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE INCREASED SPEEDS A FEW MPH
FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK.

LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN/TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION BEFORE
ENDING BY SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. S/WV MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY BRINGING A
REINFORCED SHOT OF COLD AIR. SFC FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH A
SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. EXPANDED THE AERIAL COVERAGE OF LOW POPS AS WILL
LIKELY SEE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY ON THE CHILLY SIDE...LOW 30S-AROUND 40.

MODELS TREND TOWARDS DISARRAY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION/TRACK OF DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY IN
ADDITION TO EMBEDDED WAVES ORIGINATING OVER THE PACIFIC TRACKING
EAST THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STUCK
WITH THE ALLBLEND OUTPUT. MORE CERTAINTY THAT COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A LACK OF WAA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING NORTH (KISN-KMOT) LATER
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM




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