Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260008
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
708 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST WAS TO DECREASE
THE FORECAST CLOUD COVER FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO TOMORROW.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL ENABLE SMOKE FROM
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILDFIRES TO MOVE ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SMOKE WILL REACH THE SURFACE SO OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AND HWO FOR NOW DUE TO MINIMAL
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DESPITE AN EMBEDDED WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION NOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...MINIMAL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. WAA CONTINUES WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S WEST
TO LOW/MID 80S OVER MY CENTRAL AND EAST. CONTINUED DRY WITH SFC
BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AND LITTLE TO NO FORCING ALOFT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY . THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

THE 12 UTC SUITE OF MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE AREA. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH SUCH A SCATTERED NATURE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
KEPT ONLY A CHANCE IN ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER NORTH.

THE RIDGE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LOGANSCHRADER/JPM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH



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