Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 172345
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

REMOVED HETTINGER...ADAMS...GRANT...MORTON...MERCER AND OLIVER
COUNTIES FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463. SEE THE RECENTLY
ISSUED SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565 FOR DETAILS ON EXPECTED
TRENDS THROUGH 0045 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 VALID THROUGH
10 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SEVERE CONVECTION WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL...IN AGREEMENT WITH SPC THINKING FOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEE SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION #1563 FOR DETAILS. IN GENERAL...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL FILL IN ALONG THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
US HIGHWAY 85 AS OF 20 UTC...AS THE 17 AND INCOMING 18 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS SHOW LITTLE BETWEEN THE ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST. THIS IS IN OPPOSITION TO THE 12 UTC WRF-ARW
AND NMM AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE WIDESPREAD
STORMS BY 21-00 UTC. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK...CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN POTENTIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 03 UTC. NON-
SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SUNSET...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW ALOFT.

FOR MONDAY...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...BEST
CHANCES EAST...WILL LINGER GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTING INTO MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AFTER A DRY TUESDAY...THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SUPPORTS A RATHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT...POSSIBLY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR SOME LOCATIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AS OF 2345 UTC...A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. SEE TAFS FOR
TIMING AND DETAILS OF THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PREVIOUS CONCERNS FOR THE KNIFE RIVER AT HAZEN AND THE APPLE CREEK
NEAR MENOKEN ARE GREATLY DECREASED. A CONTINUED RISE IS POSSIBLE
AT HAZEN AS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. APPLE CREEK NEAR MENOKEN TO SOME
SURPRISE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NEAR COMPLETE LACK OF RESPONSE FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND WILL COORDINATE WITH THE MISSOURI BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER ON THE FORECAST. FINALLY...IN REGARDS TO THE AREAL
FLOOD WARNING ACROSS THE WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO GATHER
INFORMATION WHETHER THE WARNING CAN BE DROPPED IF OVERLAND
FLOODING IS BARRICADED AND SIGNED FOR PUBLIC AWARENESS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
HYDROLOGY...AYD






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