Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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179
FXUS63 KBIS 252247
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
547 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 519 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Surface low pressure continues to lift northeast out of the
region. Currently winds are gusting to around 45 mph from Minot
to Jamestown. Expect winds to diminish below advisory criteria by
6 PM or shortly thereafter. Will let the wind advisory expire as
intended at 6 PM. Otherwise no significant changes other than
populating latest sensible weather element and blending to early
evening temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Frost potential tonight highlights the short term.

Strong northwest winds will continue this afternoon southwest of
deep low pressure across northeast Manitoba and western Ontario in
the wake of a cold front entering northwest Minnesota. No changes
needed to the current wind headlines at this time.

While winds will diurnally decrease, they are expected to remain
between 7 and 10 kts for most areas through the night. This should
be sufficient to prevent frost formation tonight despite the
relatively cool airmass in place. The area that would have the
best likelihood for patchy frost is the far west where winds will
be weakest. Given uncertainty, will forgo any frost headlines and
allow the conditions to be monitored into the evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Mostly dry conditions will dominate the long term forecast.

Cyclonic flow aloft is expected into Wednesday, as a closed low
lingers over the Great Lakes region. The 12Z global ensemble and
deterministic suites depict an upper level ridge building over
the Northern Plains by Wednesday afternoon, transitioning into
southwest flow aloft by Friday. This favors a return to possibly
above normal temperatures. As flow transitions to southwest aloft,
precipitation chances, including the potential for a few
thunderstorms, return to the forecast late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 519 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Strong northwest winds with gusts of 30 to 40 kts will continue
across much of western and central North Dakota through the late
afternoon and into the early evening. VFR cumulus fields this
afternoon will fade with sunset.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ003>005-011>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH



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