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000
FXUS63 KBIS 142351
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER BASIN THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STATEWIDE
OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE LATE AFTERNOON SNOW/RAIN SHOWER WORDING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.

THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND WEAKENING WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE NICELY OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WHERE WINDS WILL BE WEAKEST DURING THE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS A
RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS A FEW DEGREES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
TONIGHT...AND MAINTAINED LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S WEST.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WARM GROUND AND ROAD TEMPS...NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED...BUT MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS EARLY FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH WAY
BE ENOUGH TO OBSCURE THE LUNAR ECLIPSE OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS
THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH A LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST FROM THE
LOWER 30S IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT HELPING TO STEER AN EMBEDDED S/WV INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION GENERATED
FROM THE MID LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...STRONG
THERMAL UPGLIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL BRING A HEALTHY SWATH OF MOISTURE ACROSS MY
NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES...FROM FAR SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINOT AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY ANOTHER
AREA OF PVA MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS FORCING DECREASES.

MODELS STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON QPF. WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF WATER OVER MY FAR
NORTHEAST (ROLETTE COUNTY) TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z
GEM (WHICH NAILED SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAYS SNOWFALL) IS WETTER WITH A
SWATH OF THREE TENTHS NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST. BASED ON ITS SUPERIOR
PERFORMANCE LAST NIGHT/TODAY...LEANED IN THE GEM`S DIRECTION. CAA
NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY EVENING WILL CHANGES MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX INTO SNOW. APPLYING THE 12Z/GFS/NAM RATIOS...I
CALCULATE 1-3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST...WITH
HALF AN INCH AT KISN AND NEAR ONE INCH AT BISMARCK.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...REGARDING THE TRACK OF A CLOSED LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER RATHER POTENT S/WV CROSSING
THE ROCKIES FRIDAY AND PROGRESSING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THE FIRST HALF OF THIS COMING EASTER
WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO WATCH BOTH THESE WAVES AS EACH HAS SOME
POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO AFFECT THE STATE. LIGHT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (KMOT) TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM