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000
FXUS63 KBIS 080127
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
727 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 727 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ADJUSTED HOURLY WEATHER
ELEMENTS BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT...THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE OFF
TO OUR SOUTH...LEAD EMBEDDED S/WV`S LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
PARENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE CLOUDS FROM FAR SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW STILL
FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BOWMAN TO GARRISON AND
RUGBY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ALSO DRAG ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WHILE NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR STEEP
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE FLURRIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE COLD TEMPS/WIND CHILLS AND CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH EXCEPTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
EAST. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...BUT ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES TO EASILY REMAIN IN ADVISORY RANGE FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THAT ARE MOVING
NORTHWARD WITH NEXT WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD IMPACT TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SPREADING
LOW POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GFS/ECMWF/SREF ALL GENERATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
MAINLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. ALSO KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES IN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AS COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM WAS THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...TWO ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL
QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH...ONE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE
SECOND NEARLY 24HRS LATER SLATED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS WITH EACH
SYSTEM...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 25KT TO 30KT. WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. PER GFS...THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH TUESDAYS CLIPPER AS A 10MB PRESSURE
BUBBLE RISE IS FORECAST TO ENVELOP WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEW SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH ONE TO TWO INCHES FORECAST ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 85...AND LESS THAN ONE INCH ELSEWHERE. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...EXISTING SNOWFALL ON THE GROUND...AND
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...WILL RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND
IMPACT TRAVEL. WILL HAVE SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THIS FURTHER AND
ADJUST AS NEEDED THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

IN TERMS OF WIND CHILL HEADLINES...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH
INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS MAY BE NEED AN ADVISORY...AND ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWEST WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTER WEDNESDAY MORNING...NOT EXPECTING ANY
FURTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINES FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.

FOR WEDNESDAY...SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE LONG RANGE MODELS.
PER GFS...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES MAINLY
THROUGH THE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
DOES NOT SHOW THIS. THE GEM IS IN BETWEEN WITH A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW BEING ADVERTISED. THE GFS HAS A SURFACE REFLECTION WHILE
THE GEM DOES NOT. THE ALLBLEND HAS DIMINISHED THE PRECIPITATION THREAT
TO A SLIGHT CHC IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND EAST AND CONCUR WITH THIS.

FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AS ADVERTISED BY
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A CHANCE OF SNOW VIA WARM AIR
ADVECTION PROCESSES THURSDAY IN THE NORTH AND ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS. A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY DEVELOPS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOWS SOME WEAK
DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH WITH A SLIGHT CHC/CHC OF SNOW.

THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTH TO 25 IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 727 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREAFTER...MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA FROM 10Z-18Z SUNDAY...IMPACTING KBIS AND KJMS AND POSSIBLY
KDIK. LINGERING LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA 17Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND SCATTERED FLURRIES AND MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040-043.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH