Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250245
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA PROVIDING SOURCE OF THE LIFT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
BELIEVE THE INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY PINCH OFF AND TREND TO
MAINLY RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAIN UPDATE WILL BE TO KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA GENERATING LIFT TO
THE NORTH RESULTING IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND FAR SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. EXTENDED THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MID EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL. SEEING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SOUTHWEST AT DICKINSON EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE ON THE THRESHOLD OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR INDICATIVE OF A
LARGE/BROAD MID/UPPER COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION EMINATING FROM
A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WANING THIS EVENING...WILL
CONTINUE END THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 00Z. WILL MAINTAIN
NO MENTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN
WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A MID LEVEL/700MB
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
AND THEN RETROGRADES A BIT TO THE WEST MONDAY...PUSHING LIGHT RAIN
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL
FOLLOW THE SREF/NAM/GFS/ECMWF WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ABATE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SIMILAR WET PATTERN RELOADS AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS TIME WILL BE COLDER
H85 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL GIVE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...AND
POSSIBLY ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. WPC SNOWFALL MAP SHOWS 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL GENERATE LIFT FORMING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
IMPACTING KBIS-KJMS THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD IFR TO LOW
IFR EXPECTED KDIK- KBIS-KJMS THROUGH MONDAY. A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AT
KDIK TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. MVFR KISN-KMOT.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA



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