Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 252044 CCA
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
325 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE PESKY UPPER LOW IS NOW
LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA. ONE LAST TRAILING VORT COMBINED WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS KEEPING A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. THE 18Z HRRR SHOWS
THE SHOWERS HANGING ON THROUGH 00Z. WILL MENTION SOME SCATTED
SPRINKLES NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...IN COMBINATION WITH AN STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PRODUCE INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY A
SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT AND SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ON
TUESDAY. THE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPER THE MERCURY DROP
LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST. BUT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS...AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOWS
INTO THE UPPER 30S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE MOVED EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT.

A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS ARE FORECAST BY FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN SOMEWHAT BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND WEAK WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

MVFR TO LOW VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO ALL LIFT TO LOW VFR
AROUND 22 UTC. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 21 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CAUSED OVERLAND
FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SIOUX...GRANT...AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES SAW
LARGE AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MORTON
COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE
BIG MUDDY CREEK BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT...SOUTHWARD TO
HEIL...CARSON...AND LARK. THESE AREAS CONTAIN SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS THAT ARE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HEART RIVER.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...TWH









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