Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 260901
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
401 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

MORE RAIN FOR THE SHORT TERM.

EARLY THIS MORNING A POCKET OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 850MB
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW. SOME
LOCATIONS AROUND DICKINSON HAVE SEEN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MORNING.

HOWEVER...MOIST...EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN INVERTED TROUGH TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WILL BE THE FAVORED LOCATION TO RECEIVE THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SPAN FROM HETTINGER UP THROUGH WILLISTON.

UNLIKE THE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLIER THIS WEEK...RAIN SHOULD BE
RATHER STRATIFORM AND LIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT TO NEAR
FREEZING...LIGHT SNOW MAY ONCE AGAIN MIX IN ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WET WEATHER APPEARS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FREQUENT WAVES WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK. AS A
RESULT OF THESE WAVES...INVERTED TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE AND KEEP
MOST OF NORTH DAKOTA IN A MOIST...EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AS A JET STREAK PROPAGATES
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL SEE THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE. THANKFULLY IT APPEARS ONLY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
IS LIKELY...AND NOT HEAVY CONVECTIVE DOWNPOURS. WITH LIGHT RAIN
SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS THIS SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS.

UNFORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS CLOSE TO FREEZING. THIS COULD LEAD TO TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR
SOME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA WHERE MODELS ARE INDICATING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AT KDIK AND
RAIN AT KBIS AND KJMS. KISN AND KMOT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF MVFR CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY AT 06 UTC THEY REMAIN VFR BUT
COULD CERTAINLY SEE PERIOD OF MVFR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. SOUTHERN TAF SITES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR-IFR THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT
PICK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM KDIK TO KISN AND KBIS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH



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