Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171736
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
OVERCAST SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF REGION WITH A FEW BREAKS
ACROSS NORTHWEST. GFS/MAV GUIDANCE WAS IGNORED...AS IT IS WAY TOO
OPTIMISTIC. FOLLOWED MORE OF A NAM/HRRR BLEND WHICH IS VERIFYING
BETTER AND HOLDS ON TO CLOUD COVER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE
HITTING IT HARDEST ACROSS CENTRAL ND. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
TRENDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAKE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS AS
NEEDED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY CHANGES WERE TO BLEND CURRENT
OBS TO FORECAST. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WHEN
CLEARING WILL OCCUR. WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENTERING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
WITH REMAINDER OF STATE OVERCAST PER 11-3.9 IMAGERY AND EARLY
MORNING VIS IMAGERY AND OBS. SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING OF CLEARING WITH GFS/MAV MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC
THAN NAM/HRRR GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE THE SLOWER CLEARING THAT IS
ALREADY DEPICTED IN FORECAST GRIDS. NAM/HRRR ARE INDICATING CLOUDS
LINGERING IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WELL INTO NIGHT. WILL SEE HOW
TRENDS DEVELOP TODAY BEFORE ADJUSTING SKY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL GUSTY CENTRAL/EAST BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE WEST IS BEING COVERED BY A BAND OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON SKY COVER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS SO NO UPDATES NEEDED HERE. ONLY CHANGES WERE TO
UPDATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
CONDITIONS COVERING JUST ABOUT ALL OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWEST. NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR CEILING FORECAST KEEP A NEARLY
SATURATED LAYER...ALBEIT SHALLOW...FROM 900MB TO 850MB ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. THE WEST WILL SEE A RETURN TO A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP AND SUBSIDENCE/DRYING OCCURS BEHIND A
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THIS AFTERNOON. A H85 COLD POCKET OF 0C TO +2C
SLIDES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL ZONES TODAY KEEPING UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS IN PLACE AS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 925-H85 LAYER ARE
MAINTAINED FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THUS WITH THE EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM PER FOG/STRATUS
IMAGERY LOOP...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LATEST TIME HEIGHT RH CROSS
SECTIONS...CLOUDS/BRISK WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING
BEFORE CLEARING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH AND EAST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVES...THE FIRST WAS
SHORTWAVE WAS CIRCULATING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
SCALE ASCENT IS LACKING FOR ANYTHING MUCH MORE THAN CLOUDS THROUGH
THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN AS MENTIONED ABOVE SOME CLEARING
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THIS IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORTH DAKOTA TODAY
AS IT MOVES INTO MANITOBA AND MINNESOTA. DECREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 30 TO 35F.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SOUTHERLY WINDS
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE 50S CENTRAL TO THE LOWER 60S WEST.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
MPH...BUT THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS MILD PACIFIC AIR AND HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ACROSS THE STATE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...PUTTING THE DAKOTAS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND SOLUTION BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY...AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
WEAKER/DRIER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...COULD SEE A DRY
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES COOL ONLY SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH CIGS AROUND
1000 FEET. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING ACROSS THE
WEST...INCLUDING KISN AND KDIK. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JNS





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