Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251355
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BLENDED FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY TO THE WARMER EDGE OF THE 06 UTC
GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST THIS MONTH. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE FOR UPDATE WAS
TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER A BIT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE AREA...WITH CLOUD
COVER DIMINISHING LATER TODAY AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST.
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A QUIET AND MILD SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO THE
DAKOTAS. THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS A WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND DECREASE WITH TIME TODAY. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COOLING TREND WITH DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HIGHLIGHT
THE FIRST PART OF THE LONG TERM. ON SUNDAY SFC LOW SHIFTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE ROCKIES. WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING ONE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. COLD FRONT THEN WORKS INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SPREADING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER TROF WORKS TOWARDS THE EAST MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING FROM EAST TO
WEST...THOUGH COOL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BRINGING
NORTHWEST FLOW TO OUR AREA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH A FEW WEAK WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING AN
OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCE TO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH MODELS ARE HINTING
AT A POSSIBLE WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD






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