Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 170342

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
942 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017


Issued at 940 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Band of 700-650MB frontogenetical forced precipitation
materialized as the RAP/HRRR portrayed from west central ND into
my north central. Area web cams showed precipitation started to
reach the surface around Dunn County though air temperatures are
on the rise with the precip with no travel hazards reported as of
yet west. However, road sfc temperatures over my northeastern CWA
at Rugby and Dunseith in the 20s so expect even light rain to
freeze on contact with the ground so we opted to throw out a
winter weather advisory for freezing rain across my northeast and
east central through 3 am CST.

Issued at 700 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Main forecast challenge this evening will continue to be the
threat for light freezing rain and/or sleet and associated impacts
to travel.

Combination of low, mid, upper level forcing generating clouds and
some light radar returns at the moment. Most of the radar returns
across western ND are elevated with cloud bases at or above 10K FT
AGL. However, across far southwestern ND cloud bases have been
dropping the past hour or two along with a few obs reporting light
rain where 700-650MB frontogenetical forcing is developing, north
of sfc low pressure across northwest SD and ahead of a cold front
dropping south from Canada. Models portray this frontogensis
increasing this evening east-northeast across west/central ND
along with both the HRRR and RAP showing a decent band of light
precipitation. Warm air aloft ahead of the cold front will allow a
window of freezing rain/sleet coupled with road surface
temperatures already dropping to freezing and below.

Have mentioned this in the HWO and considering a special weather
statement for now rather than a winter weather advisory for
freezing rain as expect any precipitation to quickly move to the
northeast with minimal amounts of QPF.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Challenges for the short term include clouds and temperatures
associated with wrm/cold frontal passages well as a light mix of
rain/snow and sleet/freezing rain. All this would be of
significance except the precipitation amounts are very light. Its
hard to find much QPF in the models. So kept the POPs low tonight
and let the process generate the precipitation type. Mostly
rain/snow chances southwest and central with some snow/sleet and
freezing rain across the northern James River valley late this
evening and after midnight. With trace amounts of QPF do not think
this will rise to a significant event.

Daytime Friday will start with the cold front moving through the
region and high pressure building into the north. The frontal
baroclinic zone will remain across far southern North Dakota and
this is where a chance of rain and snow will linger through the

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

After Friday, a dry period is forecast through Tuesday as the h500
flow remains westerly and dry. A short wage trough will move
across southern Canada Early next week bringing a cold front
through and cooling temperatures for Tuesday. Some light rain or
snow shows up on Wednesday as return flow brings warm advection
into teh region. So far Thanksgiving looks mainly dry with near to
above average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)

Issued at 700 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions at all terminals through the 00Z period. There will
be a window for light freezing rain/sleet this evening for mainly
KDIK and KMOT. For now held off on mentioning in the TAFs with
uncertainty high.


Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for NDZ004-005-012-



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