Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 191833
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1233 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS UPDATE.

CHANGES INCLUDE...INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...DECREASED SKY COVER NORTHEAST...INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASED COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH CONTINUE ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

COOLER AND DRYER AIR IS ADVECTING IN TO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS ERODING THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
JAMES AND SOURIS RIVER VALLEYS. A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES HAVE ARE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. LIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND IS SLIGHTLY LARGER
IN AREAL COVERAGE THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE
AREAL EXTENT OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MORNING RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH NO UPDATES REQUIRED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. ACTIVITY HAD DISSIPATED
SOMEWHAT BUT A NEW STREAMER HAS FORMED FROM HAZEN TO CENTER AND IS
NOW APPROACHING CROWN BUTTE LAKE IN EASTERN MORTON COUNTY. OVERALL
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN POPULATING LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUDS...AND AT LEAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE OPEN
WATER OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA WILL INDUCE BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PLETHORA
OF STRATUS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME BREAKS
NOTED UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CANADA. HAVE KEPT THE
TREND FOR CLOUDS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS THE BUFKIT POINT SOUNDINGS
SHOW HIGH LOW LEVEL RH THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER
AIR WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DOES BEGIN TO CREATE A SHALLOWER MOIST
LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH PER RAP13.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING NARROW STRIATED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ADVECTING OFF OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA. EXPECTING THIS TO CONTINUE AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAVE MENTIONED
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LAKE SAKAKAWEA VICINITY EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS TODAY OF 15 TO 30 MPH. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
15 TO 22.

AT THIS TIME...WILL TREND CLOUDS DOWNWARD TONIGHT AGAIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN
AS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN STRATUS TO REDEVELOP
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

GENERALLY QUIET WITH A WARMING TREND TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND WE TRANSITION
TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MAIN ISSUE EARLY WILL LIKELY BE
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE A NON-DIURNAL TREND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS DURING THE EVENING...THEN RISING TEMPERATURES
LATE. LOW STRATUS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH
COULD ALSO CAUSE ISSUES WITH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS INTO FRIDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 19 NOV 00 UTC ECMWF HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WE REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD.

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KBIS WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES OVER THE REMAINING
TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DROP TO BETWEEN 4SM
AND 6SM MILES AT KDIK AND KBIS FOR SHORT DURATIONS. WITH THE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER AT KMOT/KJMS AND EVENTUALLY
AT LIFT TO LOW VFR AT THE REMAINING AERODROMES BETWEEN 21Z AND
06Z THURSDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AJ






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.