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000
FXUS63 KBIS 151659
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1159 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 30 TO 40 MPH FROM TIOGA TO MINOT AT 11
AM CDT. BELIEVE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE APPROPRIATE ALONG AND NORTH
OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA SOUTHWEST THROUGH BEACH AND MEDORA AND
DICKINSON. SOUTH OF THIS AREA WINDS GRADIENT NOT ENOUGH FRO STRONG
WINDS. OTHERWISE TEMPS LOOK OK WITH SUNNY SKIES MOST AREA EXCEPT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE HIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND
ADVISORY THROUGH 7 PM CDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF WEAK RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH A H250 JET OF
135 KTS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST ND. BELIEVE THIS IS LARGELY VIRGA
AND NOT REACHING THE GROUND. SO TOOK THE MORNING SHOWERS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER LOW SWIRLING AROUND IN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BORDER REGION THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE LIGHT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND BREEZY TODAY. 00Z MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WITH 35 KTS. SHOULD SEE 20 TO 30 MPH
WINDS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. NOT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT
BREEZY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND
WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CWA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER IN RESPONSE
TO FORCING FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT+ JET WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SOME WEAK ECHOES CONTINUE TO CLIP OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WAS
CONTINUED FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE OBSERVED HOURLY TEMPS
WERE CLOSE TO FORECAST. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ALSO WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED STATIONARY LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASKATCHEWAN WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
BEHIND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING MINNESOTA.

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH WV IMAGERY
SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA COINCIDENT WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT JET MOVING ACROSS ND. THIS HAS SUPPORTED
DEVELOPMENT OF AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS JUST
SOUTH OF SIOUX COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. WOULD NOT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PUSH FAR INTO OUR CWA BUT HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS FOR
EARLY MORNING ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF OUR SOUTH EAST CWA.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
MORNING WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP LOW POPS ACROSS THIS REGION
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM BOTH SUPPORTING THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CLOSE TO CANADIAN BORDER WITH
CAPE OF 600-800 J/KG. REMAINDER OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD ON A RELATIVELY QUIET NOTE WITH A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO OUR NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THE FILLING LOW WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA BY MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS DRY. IT WILL BE BREEZY ON
SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 30 MPH.

UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE ON MONDAY...OVER NORTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE
SOURIS AND JAMES RIVER VALLEYS AS WE BECOME MORE CAPPED AS YOU GO
FARTHER WEST.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WE BECOME UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A
CAP TO INHIBIT CONVECTION.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED ONTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. COAST
AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER
THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SATURDAY...ALLOWING MULTIPLE WAVES TO
ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE WARM AND HUMID NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT IS TO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT...BUT WE
GENERALLY HAVE A BROAD BRUSH OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH A ROUND OR TWO OF SEVERE WEATHER CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
DURING THIS ACTIVE PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WARMING INTO THE 60S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON ANY
CONVECTION BUT GENERALLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. FROM KISN-KMOT EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 38 KTS POSSIBLE 18Z-00Z. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA