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000
FXUS63 KBIS 130534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

ONLY CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER MIN TEMPS A TAD BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS. LOOKING AT LOWS AROUND 20
IN THE NORTH AND FAR WEST...TO THE 25-30 RANGE SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

ONLY UPDATED THE HOURLY SENSIBLE WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/TRENDS. THE REMAINING FIRST PERIOD FORECAST WEATHER ELEMENTS
ARE ON TRACK. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

QUITE A SOLID STRATOCU DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 IS SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING. UPDATED THE FIRST
PERIOD FORECAST TO INCREASE SKY COVER TO OVERCAST THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH A STRONG TRAILING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND 3MB 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THUS FAR...WINDS HAVE STAYED IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE FOR
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...A BIT BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
LOWS IN THE 20S WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHWEST WIND TO PRODUCE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. HAVE MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER STRATUS LOCATED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCED SHOT OF COLD AIR. SFC
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT WITH A SUBTLE SFC TROUGH/AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS AS THINK WE WILL SEE A SNOW SHOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...POSSIBLY LINGERING ACROSS MY EAST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS MAINTAINED MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT
TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED
S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN STRONG RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
STATE. WAA LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO MY SOUTHWEST WHILE COLDER AIR
IS MAINTAINED NORTH AND EAST. THUS A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL BE REALIZED TUESDAY DAYTIME WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S NORTHEAST
AND AROUND 50 SOUTHWEST. MODELS A BIT DIFFERENT COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO...BUT ARE QUASI-AGREEABLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF MY AREA. GFS IS MORE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AREA...WHILE THE
LAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF MORE OVER ND. THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTS
RAIN/SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY.
CONSIDERING QPF DURING THE SNOWFALL NEAR THREE TENTHS...IN
COMBINATION WITH SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS...WILL WANT TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS PERIOD AS WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO.

MODELS NOT MUCH OF A HELP AFTERWARDS AND WILL GO ALL IN WITH THE
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV