Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151130
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
630 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions much of southwest and south
  central North Dakota this afternoon and evening.

- Well above average temperatures today, with gusty southwest to
  west winds, switching northwest towards evening as a clipper
  drops through the area. Windy conditions continue Saturday.

- A cooling trend will bring seasonable temperatures through
  Sunday. A quick warm up is then anticipated through Tuesday,
  before again cooling broadly to or below seasonable normals
  through much of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Only minor forecast changes were made for this morning. The low
level stratus deck has just about left south central North
Dakota this morning, so made some small adjustments to the sky
grids accordingly. Otherwise, winds are generally light and
southwesterly, though they are anticipated to begin picking up
over the course of the next few hours. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Surface high pressure lingers over northern Plains this morning. A
deck of low stratus and patchy fog lingers over portions the south
central and James River valley, but is anticipated to quickly move
eastward and out of the area by the mid morning. Winds are generally
light, between 5 and 10 miles per hour, out of the west to
southwest.

Today, a clipper system will move southeast out of central Canada
into the northern Great Lakes region, and with it an attendant cold
surface boundary will be brought across the forecast area. Strong
CAA and a strengthening pressure gradient will promote windy
conditions across the forecast area, with model soundings indicating
advisory level winds will be able to mix down in eastern central
North Dakota after noon today through the late evening, with s
sustained winds up to 30 miles per hour and gusts up to 45 miles per
hour are possible in this area. Elsewhere, winds will be up to 20
miles per hour along with gusts up to 30 miles per hour. Winds will
begin from a southwesterly to westerly direction through the
afternoon, then begin to turn toward the northwest through the
evening and overnight.

Of note are the lower relative humidities that area expected across
southern North Dakota today, with the minimum forecast RHs from 15
to 20 percent across much of the southwest and south central. Along
with the windy conditions in the south, critical fire weather
concerns are anticipated across much of southern North Dakota this
afternoon. See the Fire Weather Discussion for more information.

Behind this system, cooler temperatures return as northwesterly to
near meridional flow is established aloft through the weekend, with
highs by Sunday broadly at or slightly below seasonable normals. A
longwave ridge axis aloft then begins to intrude late Sunday and
into Monday, with an associated warm front pushing highs on Monday
back into the 50s and 60s. This ridge rapidly begins to squash down
through the early week, however, promoting a cooling trend back
toward seasonable temperatures through the end of next workweek.
Chances for precipitation look to return some time during the second
half the workweek, as around half of ensemble members begin to
resolve a deep shortwave trough pushing across the rockies next
Thursday through Friday, with accumulating snow currently being
favored by this cluster. The other scenario (also 50% buy-in)
membership instead a much shallower tough pushing more limited
precipiation through the forecast area, possibly as a wintry
mix.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through much of the 12Z period,
though MVFR ceilings will drop in from the north by the end of
the period Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds are are
anticipated veer westerly and strengthen considerably through
the morning and into the afternoon, with sustained winds from
20 to 30 knots and gusts from 30 to 45 knots possible through
the evening at all terminals, especially at KJMS. Winds turn to
the northwest through the late evening and remain through the
end of the TAF period, with sustained speeds from 15 to 20 knots
and gusts from 20 to 30 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop over
much of southwest and south central North Dakota this afternoon
into early this evening. Minimum relative humidity values more
or less along and south of Interstate 90 will range from around
15 to 20 percent, while westerly to southwesterly winds will
increse to 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph this afternoon.
Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas. There
is some concern for the northern part of the Red Flag Warning
meeting criteria, as if cloud cover moves in, temperatures may
be a bit cooler and relative humidity values may be a bit
higher. There also is a chance that the critical fire weather
conditions could push a bit further north if humidity values
drop more than anticipated, but at this time the forecast rate
of spread for any fire that does develop is notably lower than
areas to the south, which nudged us to hold back for now.
Therefore, will mention near critical conditions for those areas
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 8
PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Adam
FIRE WEATHER...Adam/JJS


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