Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181911

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
111 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

A surface trough is developing across eastern Montana today. This
is leading to warm air and moisture advection across most of
North Dakota. Early tomorrow morning a weak, fast moving upper
level wave will swing through North Dakota. This may spark some
light rain/freezing rain across far north central North Dakota in
the morning. As the main upper level trough moves into the plains
Sunday night more widespread rain is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1258 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

For Sunday night and Monday, an upper level and surface trough
will swing through the Dakotas rather quickly. A winter mix is
possible across northern North Dakota Monday morning with rain
showers likely elsewhere. A chance of thunderstorms in the
southern James River Valley is also possible with this potent
shortwave trough. SPC Day 3 has south central ND and the James
River Valley in a General Thunderstorm Outlook.

Another wave will move through northern North Dakota Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

There is another impressive shortwave Thursday and Friday, but
trends continue to favor a southerly track and keep North Dakota


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Low pressure over southeast Montana and the northern High Plains
will move slowly east through the forecast period. Easterly
surface flow over western and central ND are forecast to produce
IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities over the northern TAF sites of
KISN and KMOT toward 12 UTC Sunday, and spreading into KJMS around
15 UTC Sunday. At this time have kept the lower ceilings and
visibilities out of KBIS and KDIK. However this will need to be
monitored. A lot of the mesoscale model guidance is much too
bullish in developing widespread IFR ceilings/vsbys across the
forecast area, and have leaned more toward the GFS based guidance
rather than NAM or mesoscale.




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