Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 080915
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
315 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Early morning regional radar mosaic and surface observations show
the light snow is now mainly confined to eastern portions of the
state. The general model consensus is that the snow chances should
gradually wane through the day as it ends from west to east across
the forecast area. Winds have remained gusty, especially from the
Turtle Mountains southward towards the southern James River
Valley. Visibilities remain restricted in the 1-3 mile range where
the current winter weather advisory is in place. Will hold onto
the headline for now and allow winds to subside a little more this
morning.

Wind chills have already reached advisory criteria in parts of the
west this morning. Temperatures should continue to drop for
several more hours, so will also keep the wind chill advisory
going this morning.

The challenge for later tonight will be clouds and temperatures.
It appears clouds could remain in some locations, but it may not
be a solid overcast. Anywhere the clouds break, temperatures will
quickly drop with arctic high pressure in place, potentially
leading to very cold temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

The next chance for accumulating snow appears to still be on
track for Saturday. There is still spread within the models
solutions and this is easily seen in the GEFS and SREF plumes. For
now, continued with a model blend for pops and qpf which is also
in line with WPC. The remainder of the forecast should be
dominated by cold temperatures. Highs should generally be in the
single digits above zero, with lows in the single digits and teens
below.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

STRATUS COULD AT TIMES BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO KISN THIS MORNING.
KBIS/KMOT/KJMS will trEND TO VFR AS LOW CLOUDS IMPROVE AND
BLOWING SNOW BECOMES LESS OF A CONCERN. Wind will diminish through
the day today.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ004-
005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ



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