Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 290245

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
945 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Issued at 934 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High pressure remains over the forecast area and east into
Minnesota. Evening convection was limited to just a portion of far
southwest Bowman county. the 00 UTC 29 June NAM and ExpHRRR do
indicate the potential for minimal convection overnight so will
keep the slight chance pops going for only the southwest where
best shear and instability aloft remains. 18 UTC GFS and 00 UTC
NAM have backed off a bit for pops on Wednesday. Have blended a
consensus of short term guidance with previous forecast pops to
indicate a slight downward trend in pops Wednesday. With clear to
partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight we bumped overnight
lows down just a bit.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Isolated convection has developed over southeast MT with a cell
located near Ekalaka and another trying to develop between Beach
and Marmarth. Current forecast looks on track with slight chance
pops over the southwest this evening. Updated latest sensible
weather elements.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A trough continues to set up across the lee of the Rockies today.
This has put North Dakota in southeasterly return flow.
Temperatures today will be about 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
yesterday. The main low pressure center will stay south into
southeastern Montana and western South Dakota. However, moist
upslope flow and an upper level jet may combine to provide enough
lift to spark a few thunderstorms this evening across southwest
North Dakota. The latest runs of the HRRR model depict isolated
thunderstorms moving across southwest North Dakota during the
early evening hours.

A cold front will combine with favorable jet dynamics to spark
more widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Instability and shear appear to be marginal Wednesday, but a few
storms during the afternoon could contain some small hail and
gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

High pressure moves in late Wednesday night bringing an end to
precipitation for most locations Thursday

A more robust surface low is expected to develop across eastern
Montana Friday. This low is expected to remain nearby through the
weekend. This will bring a daily chance for showers and
thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. There are no clear
signals for widespread severe weather, however, each day has the
potential to produce a few severe thunderstorms with afternoon
instability and a decent shear profile due to westerly flow aloft
and southerly flow at the surface. Moisture is generally expected
to be lacking, so widespread heaving rainfall is not anticipated
even with ample forcing and many chances for thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 934 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

VFR conditions are anticipated through the forecast period. Light
and variable winds tonight and Wednesday morning. A cold front
will move through the area Wednesday bringing a north wind to taf
sites by the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase Wednesday afternoon with best chances near KJMS added
SHRA and a VCTS aft 21 UTC. Left mention of thunder out of
remaining tafs at this time.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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