Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
252 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Surface high pressure over Saskatchewan/Manitoba continued to push
south into North Dakota. Gusty north/northwest winds this afternoon
will decrease this evening as the high pressure center moves into
central North Dakota tonight. Cloud cover will be problematic and
latest thinking is that cloud cover will persist over the eastern
half of the state tonight. Lows should be in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Thursday winds become southeast as the surface high moves east and
general low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

By Thursday night a closed upper level low reaches the Pacific
Northwest, deepens, and moves inland reaching western Montana Friday
afternoon. By Friday late afternoon the upper level flow over North
Dakota becomes southwesterly. Friday should see very
warm conditions with temperatures well into the 90s over our
southern areas. In addition, low level moisture will increase due to
southerly flow resulting in dew points climbing into the 60s. The
H700 thermal ridge of temperatures of +10C to +14C in southwestern
North Dakota should keep the environment capped through Friday
afternoon. However, late night showers and thunderstorms are
possible - not severe - Thursday night into Friday morning and early
afternoon before the cap builds.

By Friday night the upper level low will have moved into central
Montana, and the leading edge of upper level impulses will reach
western and central North Dakota. The best instability Friday
afternoon over south central and southeastern North Dakota will
spread northward along a strong southerly low level jet. Increasing
0-6km bulk shear will coincide with the increasing instability -
especially across northern and central North Dakota. This
pattern supports the possibility of another severe storm outbreak.
SPC has highlighted a slight risk of severe storms for Friday night
along and north of I-94 due to the combination of instability,
strong shear and strong nocturnal low level jet along with a warm
front that will develop over the northern part of the state.

As the upper low pushes east across the North Dakota/Canadian border
Saturday, there will be a continued chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly north. Attention then turns to strong westerly
winds developing behind the departing low. Model runs suggest
surface winds linking up to H700. A wind advisory may be needed
across portions of western and central North Dakota.

There will be a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday, mainly across the north, as the low moves east. High
pressure aloft will then build in behind the trough placing our
region in northwest flow and mostly dry weather for the early part
of next week. There is a hint of a chance of showers Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a shortwave moving through the northwest flow
aloft may bring enough instability for showers or thundershowers.

Following the warm weather on Friday, temperatures will return to
near normal readings for the weekend and early next week, generally
in the upper 70s and low 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2016

Area of MVFR clouds in northern North Dakota continued moving
southward towards the South Dakota border...but were beginning to
show signs of scattering in the far south. Maintained MVFR cigs at
KISN and KMOT until around 21z. Expect KBIS and KDIK to have
occasional MVFR cigs. KJMS however can expect occasional MVFR this
afternoon, and mainly VFR cigs overnight. Confidence not high
regarding whether KJMS will see a return of MVFR overnight, and
later TAF issuances may reflect this.

North/northwest winds continue today and decrease this evening
becoming light. Return southeast winds begin on Thursday.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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