Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180920

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

A large area of showers and storms continues to push east across
the southern part of the forecast area early this Tuesday
morning, right on track with the CAMS and as expected in an area
of low level convergence, mid level lifting in positive vorticity
advection, and upper level diffluence. Storms were supported by
weak to moderate shear and 1500-2000 J/KG CAPE.

Ongoing convection is on track to exit the area (Jamestown) by 9
AM or so. However, other convection was across southeast Montana
and also pushing east. This is expected to hold together, although
not be as strong in the wake of previous convection resulting in a
less unstable boundary layer.

For tonight the right rear quadrant of an exiting jet is forecast
over the northwest part of the state along with weak mid level
lifting for at least some chance of showers and storms there.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Unsettled best describes Wednesday through Friday with chances for
storms through the period, especially Wednesday with a quite
rigorous mid level wave, and again Thursday night through Friday
night with a trough passing through the mean ridge.

The weekend looks dry as the mean ridge amplifies through the
Northern Plains.

Temperatures mainly in the 80s though some 70s northeast and into
the 90s southwest.

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Thunderstorms around KJMS as of this writing were moving east and
will be out of the area by 18/1300Z. Other showers and isolated
-TSRA will continue moving through southern North Dakota until
18/1600Z. VFR KDIK-KISN-KMOT. Isolated storms are possible
in northwest North Dakota after 19/0000Z.




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