Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 120437
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1037 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1037 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Winds increasing as forecast out of the southwest over my
northwestern and north central counties, in the southern quadrant
of an Alberta Clipper, as the strong low pressure continues east-
southeast across central Saskatchewan. Increasing gradient
forcing over my northwest and north central has produced wind
gusts already to 41 MPH, and has prompted no travel advisories
over northwest ND from local law enforcement due to blowing snow.

Winds will continue to increase over the next few hours across
western and central ND. Main push of winds (out of the northwest)
still expected on the backside of the low around to after
midnight and into Thursday morning from northwest to south.
Upstream observations have shown 40-46KT gusts across SK, but
only for an observation or two. Also strongest pressure rises are
depicted just north of the International Border overnight via
GFS/NAM/RAP. Thus right now confidence is low regarding needing to
upgrade to a blizzard warning. Still not out of the question, but
duration wise (3 hour criteria for a blizzard) may be tough to
get. Will maintain the winter weather adv for blowing snow, with
`near blizzard conditions` wording. We will continue to monitor
closely.



UPDATE
Issued at 757 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

The inherited forecast remains on track this evening. Attention
turns to the overnight when pressure rises and increasing
gradient forcing will ramp up winds. Low pressure currently over
central Saskatchewan. As forecast, southwest winds are on the
increase over the Northern Plains as the low approaches from the
north. Across eastern Alberta and far western SK, gusts to around
40KTs are being observed on the back side of the low. Current
headlines will continue, but will closely monitor upstream obs for
possible upgrading.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Dangerous wind chills through Thursday and the potential for near
blizzard conditions tonight through Thursday morning highlight the
short term forecast.

An arctic surge will overtake western and central North Dakota
tonight through Thursday, with a two fold threat of dangerous wind
chills and significant blowing snow. A 9mb/3hr pressure rise
bubble associated with the surge is forecast by the 12-18 UTC
GFS/NAM to approach northwest North Dakota around 07 UTC and
propagate into the Red River Valley by midday Thursday. The
biggest source of uncertainty with this surge regarding winds are
low level lapse rates and mixing depth. The 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF
depict the strongest winds and the greatest mixing depth and low
level lapse rates. The 17-19 UTC RAP show a lesser wind
potential, and is the middle ground above the 12 and 18 UTC NAM
which show the shallowest mixing depths and weakest lapse rates.

Did trend above the NAM given the strong isallobaric forcing with
widespread gusts of 30-40 kts, the strongest being across the
north central where near blizzard conditions are possible.
However, should Canadian observations show the higher gust
potential of the ECMWF/GFS, wind gusts in excess of 45 kts may be
possible and true ground blizzard conditions could result.
However, another source of uncertainty for true blizzard
conditions is how fast the surge is expected to move through the
are. Thus, issued a Winter Weather Advisory for all of northwest
and central North Dakota tonight through Thursday morning for
blowing snow coupled with dangerous wind chills to -40. This will
have to be closely monitored should an expansion into southwest
North Dakota become necessary or a possible upgrade to a Blizzard
Warning based on upstream observations which is not out of the
question.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Dangerous wind chills Thursday night and Friday morning with a
potential warm up into early next week highlight the extended
forecast.

Dangerous wind chills near -40 are possible Thursday night into
Friday. However, the 12 UTC global models continue the trend of
exiting the arctic high more rapidly into Minnesota Friday
morning. Thus, a warming trend in return flow is possible late
Thursday night into Friday morning after a quick temperature drop
off Thursday evening. Thereafter, potential split upper level flow
transitioning to zonal next week supports a possible recovery to
near to above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)

Issued at 757 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

A strong Alberta Clipper will move across the area later tonight.
Southwest winds will strengthen ahead of the clipper this
evening, eventually shifting out of the northwest with gusts to 40
kts possible. IFR/LIFR reductions in visibility due to blowing
snow are expected tonight into Thursday morning, with conditions
improving Thursday afternoon.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to noon CST /11
AM MST/ Thursday for NDZ004-005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037.

Wind Chill Advisory until 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ Thursday for
NDZ004-005-012-013-019>023-025-034>037.

Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday for
NDZ017-018-031>033-040>045.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon CST Thursday for
NDZ001>003-009>011.

Wind Chill Advisory until 1 AM CST Thursday for NDZ001>003-
009>011.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to noon CST Thursday for
NDZ046>048-050-051.

Wind Chill Advisory until 5 AM CST Thursday for NDZ046>048-050-
051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
AVIATION...NH



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