Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 140243
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Scattered thunderstorms are forming in a very limited area
associated with the warm/cold front and surface low just east of
Hettinger this evening. Ingredients for convection continue to be
weak with limited CAPE and Shear. Will keep an area of
thunderstorms tonight along the path of this surface low across
south central North Dakota. Adjusted POPs a bit to follow the Lows
track tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

The smoke continues to remain as issue this evening. However the
trend has been for improving conditions across the northwest and
if this trend continues there may be much better smoke conditions
on Thursday. Otherwise, scattered light showers remain over the
west with a few isolated lightning strikes southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Continued smoke through tonight into Thursday morning
highlights the short term forecast.

Widespread smoke with reduced visibility is favored to continue
tonight into Thursday morning. Surface smoke is expected to
decrease through the day on Thursday with an airmass exchange via
breezy northerly winds. This is favored by the 12 UTC experimental
HRRR surface smoke forecast, and additional experimental surface
smoke forecasts available at www.airquality.weather.gov.

A series of rapidly propagating impulses will continue the
scattered rain shower and isolated thunderstorm threat through
the night that is currently across the west this afternoon. Severe
weather is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Much cooler temperatures, and widespread rainfall Friday into
Saturday highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites continue to remain in good agreement on
widespread rainfall developing Thursday night and continuing
Friday across western and central North Dakota north of the
surface low across Nebraska as the first of two potent waves
propagate across the Northern Plains. A second and stronger wave
will impact the area on Saturday, however, a dry slot is favored
to impact the southwest and south central limiting rainfall
chances for these areas. Overall, widespread one to two inches of
rain are possible for much of the area, with locally higher
amounts along an axis from the southwest into north central.
Widespread highs in the 50s are expected Friday and Saturday. As
cool surface high pressure builds across the area Saturday night
into Sunday, frost may be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Smoke will continue through tonight into Thursday morning across
most of western and central North Dakota, with MVFR/IFR visibility
confined mainly to south central North Dakota where the smoke
will be thickest. Surface smoke is expected to decrease through
the day Thursday as surface winds turn north to north- northeast.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible west this
afternoon, with the threat continuing through the night west and
central. With low confidence of timing left the mention of
thunderstorms out of the TAFS at this time.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...WAA



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