Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 311139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

STILL GETTING SOME THUNDERSTORM REDEVLOPMENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA IN STUTSMAN COUNTY. APPEARS THIS WILL TRACK EAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAS OF FOG SPEADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
THIS WILL LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON THE EXITING RAINFALL THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND THE CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER TODAY.

THE HRRR MODEL HAS DONE A DECENT JOB OF FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND POPS MIMIC THE 05 UTC
HRRR PRECIPITATION AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. MOST ALL HEAVY RAIN
HAS PUSHED EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER A VERY THIN BAND
OF SHOWERS IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. AS OF
0730 UTC THE BAND DROPPED HEAVY RAIN AT THE DICKINSON AIRPORT. DO
NOT EXPECT THIS BAND...AT LEAST THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
IT...TO LAST MUCH LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

LOOKING FORWARD TO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODELS AGREE ON A
BROAD TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE 00 UTC
MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME NAILING DOWN WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL EXACTLY...HOWEVER ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. AT THE MOST EXPECTING A SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH A COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOL IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. BY WEDNESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE
IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. BY THURSDAY THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM BRING
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE A
BIT MORE ROBUST IN QPF FORECAST FOR NORTH DAKOTA. LIKED THE
ALLBLEND VERSION OF POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT 30 POPS FOR NOW.
AFTER THURSDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SEPARATED BETWEEN A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WITH THE GFS MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE FLOW
SEPARATION AROUND A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. THE BASIC
RESULT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FLOW
MERGES ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN WEAK SUDSIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ONLY
KJMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE PAST KJMS.
LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING AT KJMS...KBIS...
AND KMOT PROVIDING IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD...HOWEVER SCATTERED IN NATURE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...MM






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