Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272320
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
620 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Very little change was made with this update other than blending
recent observations and rapid-refresh guidance into the hourly
forecast fields. Cumulus fields are already beginning to dwindle
per late afternoon visible satellite trends, so the chance of any
showers has ended. The surface high centered over northern ND at
23 UTC will slowly shift southeast tonight. We might need to lower
overnight temperatures a bit given the proximity of the high, but
we would like to watch dewpoint trends (as a proxy for efficiency
of radiational cooling) the next few hours before making changes
to forecast lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The main focus for the short term is cloud cover and potential
rain showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.

A very weak upper level circulation and cold air advection are
producing scattered to widespread cloud cover early this
afternoon. Forecast sounding profiles suggest steep lapse rates
this afternoon. While any noticeable forcing is lacking, with
steep lapse rates afternoon heating may produce enough
instability to spark some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. If any showers and thunderstorms do initiate they
will be rather limit both spatially and temporally.

This evening cloud cover and shower activity is expected to
diminish as surface high pressure slides off to the southeast and
return flow kicks in.

Tomorrow, SPC has placed far southern North Dakota in a marginal
risk for severe storms. However, at this time most models keep the majority
of the thunderstorm activity in South Dakota, leaving most of
North Dakota clear of any severe threat.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Northwest flow aloft will remain through the rest of the week.
This will bring a near daily chance of shower and thunderstorms.
Pinpointing exact locations and times are a challenge giving the
variability in number and strength of upper level waves moving
through the flow. At this time indications are that Wednesday
evening and this weekend have the best chances at more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity.

With a mainly northern Rockies storm track this week, strong gulf
moisture advection will be lacking. This should limit the amount
of moisture and instability available this week.
Therefore...widespread severe storms aren`t anticipated at this
time.

Temperatures will be near or slightly below normal with highs
from the 70s to the lower 80s. However, upper level ridging is
expected late this weekend. This would favor much warmer
temperatures across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central ND tonight
and Tuesday. Cumulus clouds will dissipate with sunset, then are
forecast to redevelop over parts of the area Tuesday afternoon as
low-level winds become more southerly and near-ground moisture
content increases.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CJS



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