Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 030531
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1231 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED ON LATEST HOURLY TEMP TRENDS
AND EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING RADIATIONAL
COOLING. OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER MIN TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT MOST AREAS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CURRENT
DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. EXPECT GENERALLY
LOWER 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING LEAVING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
EVENING. UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

QUIET WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY...WITH OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY OTHER
THAN A WEAKER WIND FIELD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S INTO
TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STARTS TO MATERIALIZE LATER ON TUESDAY WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF AN EMBEDDED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WYOMING ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINING
IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SPREAD EASTWARD MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW A
TRANSITORY RIDGE SOMETIME FRIDAY/FRI NIGHT REPLACED WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
70S TO 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH NO BIG WARMUPS OR
COOLDOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING. LATER TODAY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS
AROUND 5-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...AND A MORE EASTERLY FLOW OF 5
TO 10 MPH AT KISN AND KDIK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV


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