Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251431
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
931 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The fog has ended across the southwest. The showers were
progressing east and will be out of the area before noon. Made
minor adjustments to POPs across the northeast.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Main forecast change was to add some fog to portions of southwest
North Dakota as reduced visibility is being reported at KDIK, and
can also be seen on NDDOT webcams in Dickinson and Kildeer.
Coverage appears to be limited, and this should erode in the next
couple of hours. Some showers continue to slide through central
North Dakota, so have adjusted precipitation chance a bit to line
up with current activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The cold front will push into eastern North Dakota, with chances
for precipitation remaining near the surface low just along the
Canadian Border. Today will be another breezy day across western
and west central North Dakota. Winds around 30 mph out of the
west with gusts around 40 mph are expected. Current greenup and
cooler temperatures will again keep fire danger below the high
level even with the gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

The weekend appears cool with scattered showers possible. Models
are a bit more dry than previous runs and don`t have the best
agreement. Therefore, only minimal chances for light rain is in
the forecast. An upper level low will circulate around Ontario
funneling several more shortwave troughs through the Northern
Plains in what could be a modestly active northwest flow regime
early next week. This pattern often produces an active
thunderstorm pattern in early June, but the latest guidance
suggests only minor precipiation chances and amounts through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Patchy dense fog over southwest North Dakota will result in
localized LIFR conditions affecting the KDIK terminal. The fog
will erode by mid-morning. Some showers continue over north
central North Dakota, which may bring localized MVFR visibility.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will continue to
shift southwest to west and become gusty today as a front moves
through the area.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JJS


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