Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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765
FXUS63 KBIS 291349
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
849 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 846 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A few thunderstorms have developed over portions of the area
mainly along the Missouri River and southwest in an area of
modest instability. Do not expect these storms to get to strong
with instability remaining on the low side. Additional showers and
thunderstorms still possible later today. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Scattered thunderstorms currently confined to the far southwest.
Upstream convection in montana currently seeing a diurnal minimum.
Will update current conditions and trend thunderstorms down
southwest this morning. Expect gradual increase in thunderstorms
this afternoon on approach of upstream shortwave.

UPDATE Issued at 415 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

Will update the chance for thunderstorms across the southwest
this morning. Current Line of storms extends from adams county
northwest through golden valley county. Uncertain how long they
will remain nearly steady state but should last a few more hours
as a line.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

The relative lack of moisture and instability will play a
significant role in the thunderstorm trends across west and central
North Dakota. First, due to the lack of significant CAPE and shear
the threat for severe storms is low.

The CAM models and the GFS have been over developing the convection
so far today so these models initially have been limited in their
usefulness for short term trends. Thunderstorms that have developed
have done so in weak upslope flow across the southwest where CAPE
and mid level lapse rates are more favorable. Across the remainder
of the region mid level lapse rates have been more unfavorable for
convection.

Have had to adjust the pops for the short term through early
afternoon focusing on the southwest and south central. By late this
afternoon and evening a shortwave trough in northwest flow aloft
will bring better dynamics and support for thunderstorms across
northern and central North Dakota. Both the ECMWF and GFS have a
strong diurnal trend to the storms, with late afternoon areas of
storms in southern canada trending quickly down in the evening as
they move into North Dakota. The lack of moisture/precipitable
water is the likely reason for not sustaining more widespread
convection through the night.

Highs today will be still be slightly below normal from teh mid 70s
north central to the lower 80s southwest. tonight lows will be in
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

For Thursday, a north to northeasterly flow Thursday both at the
surface and aloft will produce a dry and cooler day behind a
departing cold front. Highs will be in the lower to mid 70s.

Thursday night through Sunday night, a low level southerly flow
initiates in the far west Thursday night, then overspreads all of
western and central ND Friday through Sunday. Several shortwaves
embedded within a broad to nearly zonal flow will interact with the
ongoing low level moisture advection and increased instability, to
produce several chances for showers and thunderstorms. The most
widespread activity looks to occur Saturday night through Sunday
night. Surface dewpoints are forecast into the lower and mid 60s
across central ND during this time along with the highest cape and
shear.

For Monday into Tuesday night, both the GFS and EC show shower and
thunderstorm potential through 00Z Tuesday, but then produce a
period of dry weather Monday night. Tuesday onward, little or no
relief with near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a
progressive flow and incoming shortwaves create more opportunities
for precipitation. Temperatures will rise into the 80s over the
weekend and continue into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

A cold front over south central Saskatchewan and Manitoba will be
the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms as it moves south
today into this evening. A vcsh/vcts was utilized at all terminals.
Precipitation exits KJMS by 06z Thursday, with potential for
mvfr/ifr cigs developing 09z-14z Thursday at all terminals. For now
have hinted at this idea with a sct low cloud deck, and later
forecasts can further address this with the latest data.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS



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