Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
349 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Focus in the short term is on low temperatures and cloud cover in
the James river valley and Turtle mountains areas early this

Latest satellite shows low clouds just east of our county warning
area over Valley City up to Devils Lake. Initial short range
models were bringing cloud cover into the James river valley and
Turtle mountains a bit earlier and where low clouds have not
developed temperatures have dropped below the consensus models

With that said do expect the low cloud deck stretching from Devils
Lake area through Dickey county to slowly progress east and expand
a bit through the early morning hours. This should bring
temperatures back into the 40s in those colder spots and stop any
possible frost development in most areas. Temperature gradients
as of 08 UTC differ by as much as 9 degrees between Jamestown and
Valley City where the cloud deck is squarely over.

Otherwise a quiet and pleasant day. Skies should clear by
afternoon and highs will range from around 60 east to around 70

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

A large upper level ridge will dominate North Dakota`s weather
pattern into the weekend.

The 00 UTC model guidance continues to show a weak disturbance
moving in late Thursday into Friday. While Cape values are weak
there will be a chance for a thunderstorm or two embedded in the

A western CONUS trough will begin to impact North Dakota weather
starting Sunday as the large upper level ridge breaks down and
moves east. The 00 UTC ECMWF and GFS both show chances for for
showers and thunderstorms Sunday through early next week. As of
the latest runs the GFS is the most progressive of the two with a
closed low moving through North Dakota Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Mainly MVFR Fog/stratus will impact KJMS early this morning but
will remain east of KMOT and KBIS. Otherwise VFR all terminals for
the 06Z period.




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