Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280547
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

We dropped forecast lows slightly into the upper teens in the Glen
Ullin, Dickinson, and Hazen areas where observed surface dewpoints
are in the 15-20 F range as of 05 UTC. Otherwise, there was little
change to the forecast with this update. A broad surface ridge is
in control of the weather and will make for a quiet night.

UPDATE Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

With clouds persisting in the northern James River Valley this
evening the temperatures there have been slow to fall. However per
the CAM models the skies should clear later tonight allowing
temperatures to fall to the forecast lows. Updated the clouds to
keep them in a bit longer this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

A region of surface high pressure clearing skies over most of west
and central North Dakota this evening. Current forecast looks
good. Will watch temperatures this evening as this mornings lows
dropped into the teens southwest under clear skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Dry, cool and quiet weather is expected tonight and Friday.

Broad cyclonic flow aloft today with cool surface high pressure
centered over central Canada...and its southern ridge axis extending
south across North Dakota. North to northeast surface winds
persisted across western and central ND. The lower clouds across
southern counties this morning has moved south and had nearly
dissipated. The short term high res models show no indication of a
re-development of the low clouds, or any advection northward into ND
tonight. Therefore, we are thinking we should see a clear to partly
cloudy sky tonight. The cool and dry air in place should allow
temperatures to drop back into the 20s across the area. Dropped
overnight lows a tad from guidance, given expected mostly clear
skies and a light east to northeast wind, and dewpoints in the upper
teens to mid 20s. There may be some locales that drop into the teens
as happened this morning, and this will need to be monitored this
evening and overnight.

Only slightly warmer on Friday as the surface ridge axis moves only
slightly eastward. We are still expecting fairly light east to
northeast winds Friday under mostly sunny skies. Highs should range
from the upper 40s in the James Valley to lower 50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

The long term period will be dominated by a broad large-scale trough
over North America, keeping temperatures at or slightly below
average. At the base of the large-scale trough - over the
southwestern US - the global models develop a rather large shortwave
low over the 4-corners area on Friday/Saturday and develop it
farther east across the southern plains Sunday, lifting it northward
into the mid/northern Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes on Monday.
Most of the precipitation with this system will remain south and
east of western and central ND, but this system may affect eastern
ND...and any relatively small change in this track could lead to
some light rain/snow into central ND as well by Monday. This system
and the global model solutions each day will need to be monitored
closely regarding the track of this system, as a more westward track
of this low may result in more significant rain/snow amounts into
eastern and parts of central ND.

While this southern stream system shapes up, a smaller northern
stream shortwave scoots east across southern Canada Saturday,
with any precip staying north of the international border. Another
northern stream shortwave ejects out of British Columbia Sunday and
tracks southeastward across ND on Sunday night/Monday. This will
bring some chances of rain - possibly mixed with snow at times -
Sunday night and Monday. Northwest flow aloft will set up after this
shortwave, with small chances of precipitation Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

OVC Cigs at KJMS of 4500ft agl will improve to SKC by 07z Friday.
Otherwise, vfr cigs/vsbys and light winds next 24hr at all
terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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