Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 141245
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Quick update to increase morning PoPs based on radar, webcam and
surface observation trends through 1235 UTC with a slightly
earlier onset of snowfall this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light snow and blowing snow today, and dangerous wind chills
beginning this evening highlight the short term forecast.

A cold front across southern Saskatchewan and Alberta as of 09
UTC ahead of the next Arctic high pressure system will rapidly
propagate from north to south across western and central North
Dakota through the morning. Light snow showers are expected with
the front, however, accumulations of less than one inch are
favored for most locations. Patchy to areas of blowing snow are
expected as winds increase late this morning and through the
afternoon. The 00 UTC NAM/GFS bufr soundings support widespread
gusts to around 30 kts for most of western and central North
Dakota. Visibility restrictions from blowing snow alone are not
favored to rise to advisory level, winds need to be a bit higher
according to the Baggaley blowing snow model. However, periodic
significant reductions in visibility are possible when the
blowing snow is coupled with snow showers.

As the 1052-1054 mb Arctic high continues to build in this evening
and tonight, dangerous wind chills to 35 below are expected.
Mixing appears to be strong enough to prevent overnight lows from
bottoming out too far. Still overnight lows based on a 00 UTC
guidance consensus should still fall to 15 to 20 below for most
areas. Issued a Wind Chill Advisory for this evening that
continues through Tuesday morning of the extended forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Continued dangerous wind chills through Tuesday morning, with a
mid to late week temperature recovery highlight the extended
forecast.

Dangerous wind chills continue Monday through Tuesday morning with
the impacts of the Arctic high from the short term forecast.
Widespread sub-zero highs are favored Monday by the 00 UTC
consensus. A frigid Monday night into Tuesday morning is expected
with lows for most locations of 20 to 30 below as the high becomes
favorably positioned between the Missouri and James River Valleys
of North and South Dakota. Did trend towards the lower edge of
the forecast enveloped based on the previous Arctic high
temperature pattern. Dangerous winds chills to 40 below are
expected. Some portions of the Advisory may need to be upgraded
to a warning.

For mid to late next week, upper level ridging transitioning to
southwest flow aloft across the Northern Plains suggests a
potential return to above normal and above freezing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

A cold front entering northwest North Dakota as of 1230 UTC will
quickly move from north to south across western and central North
Dakota through the morning. This front will bring gusty northwest
winds near 30 knots and variable MVFR/VFR ceilings. MVFR to IFR
visibility in snow and blowing snow is also expected. Conditions
to improve after 00z Sunday evening with decreasing clouds and
northwest winds decreasing to around 10-15 knots.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM CST /9 PM MST/ this evening to
noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NDZ017>020-031>037-040>048-050-
051.

Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday
for NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...PA



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