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000
FXUS63 KBIS 091758
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1258 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NECESSARY FOR MIDDAY UPDATE. GOOD WARM-UP IN
PROGRESS...WITH 40S/L50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT/BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES CONTINUING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN DURING THE DAY TODAY...ALLOWING MORE OF
A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW COMPONENT INTO NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE RAP13 AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...SHOW INCREASING WINDS/MIXING HEIGHTS FROM
NEAR HETTINGER TO DICKINSON AND INTO WATFORD CITY...RESULTING IN
WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLY. THE
SOUTHWEST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WIND ADVISORY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE EXPECT WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS BEING FLATTENED BY A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA...AND THEN SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. ONE
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL AFFECT NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR 45N/135W. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z MONDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ALL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS...KEEP THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE NORTH
OF THE BORDER. THE GFS ADVERTISES SOME LIGHT QPF SNEAKING INTO
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS AS
THE 4KM WRF-NMM PRECIPITATION GRAPHICS AND THE 4KM NAM COMPOSITE
RADAR REFLECTIVITY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION IN MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL POPULATION.

UPSTREAM HIGH TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING FROM
SATURDAY SUGGESTS OUR CURRENT/PREVIOUS MAX TEMPERATURE GRID FOR
TODAY REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60F SOUTHWEST...TO
LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH CENTRAL...AND LOW TO MID 40S NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OF PACIFIC ORIGIN THAT TRACKS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DID NOT SEE
SUFFICIENT REASON TO DEPART/CHANGE FROM THE ALLBLEND FORECAST. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING AND CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS WITH THE SURFACE LOW
FORMING ACROSS WYOMING AND TRACKING ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO OKLAHOMA.
LOWERED HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
CANADA WILL TRANSPORT SUB 0C AIR AT H50 ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL QPF
FORECASTS WITH THE ECMWF BY FAR THE MOST ROBUST IN GENERATING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...DRY NORTHEAST FLOW
INTO PRECIPITATION OFTEN LIMITS THE FALL. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO PLACE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST`S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY IN COLD ADVECTION...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE DRY BENEATH A WEAK PROGRESSIVE RIDGE/TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL BRING A MOSTLY DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE PICTURE FOR SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME INDICATIONS OF LOWER CLOUDS/BR POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ND...BUT OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS ARE NOT AS BULLISH SO WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA