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000
FXUS63 KBIS 192321
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
621 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

So far this afternoon into this evening there has been one notable
storm that swept through the southern James River Valley,
otherwise the storms have stayed on the tame side. Parameters are
still in place for severe weather over James River Valley, but
with the frontal boundary making its easterly push, severe
potential will be on a gradual decrease. Convection allowing
models have been overplaying the the thunderstorm coverage so far
this afternoon/early evening, so will ease up a bit on
precipitation chances through the evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Convection continues to track east across central ND this
afternoon. Greatest risk of severe storms looks to be along and
east of a line from around Harvey to Linton. Most mesoscale models
show rapid intensification near the current line of convection in
the next 1-2 hours as remaining cap dissipates. With a very strong
synoptic system, all threats remain: Large hail, Damaging winds
and even tornadoes. The severe threat will exit the eastern CWA
during the evening hours. Clearing from west to east tonight with
overnight lows dropping into the mid 30s possibly over the
southwest. Areal extent appears small for areas of frost. Will
mention some frost but advisory not anticipated at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Cooler and much drier on Wednesday. Our main concern will be
possible fire weather issues in the southwest during the
afternoon. Minimum humidities are in the 20 to 25 percent range
with sustained winds around 20 mph. As was mentioned on the mid
shift, it still looks like marginal fire weather conditions may
exist for a brief period. With uncertainty in duration with only
marginal winds, we will not issue a fire weather watch at this
time. Overnight shift can re-evaluate. If we mix out more than
anticipated, fire weather hazards may still be needed.

Relatively dry period Wednesday and Thursday as the first upper
low lifts into Canada. The next round of active weather picks up
Thursday night and continues through the weekend as another upper
low deepens over the western U.S. keeping a southwest upper flow
over the northern plains. However, we also begin to cool down and
the thunder risk beyond today and tonight looks to be minimal
through the weekend. Highs mainly in the 60s and 70s Wednesday and
Thursday. A transition on Friday to cooler highs mainly in the 50s
over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Light rain showers over western North Dakota may lead to some
localized MVFR conditions this evening, with VFR conditions
expected from late tonight onward. Over eastern into portions of
central North Dakota, scattered to widespread thunderstorms will
continue through this evening, with some storms possibly severe.
Conditions will improve by early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions
are expected throughout the area on Wednesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JJS