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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270809
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
309 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WITH A COMPENSATING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. FOG/STRATUS LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEVERAL
POCKETS OF BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. PER HRRR CEILING
FORECAST...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING THEN
LIFT INTO A FAIRLY LARGE SCT/BKN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY/EASTERN LAMOURE AND DICKEY COUNTIES PER
GFS/ECMWF FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE
REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE DRY. 850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY THE SAME OR 1C COOLER OVER SATURDAYS. WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING MORE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 70S. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEST
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A CLEAR SKY AND
COOL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 50F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE A BLOCKING
WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US
AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
GENERALLY CUTOFF FROM GULF MOISTURE AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
LOW. ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN OFTEN BRING SURPRISE CONVECTION AS
WEAK IMPULSES ARE INEVITABLE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. FOR TEMPERATURES EXPECT A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND FROM BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY TO NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCT/BKN LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
15Z SUNDAY...THEN TREND TOWARD AN ALL SCT/BKN LOW VFR BY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SKC SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...KS