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000
FXUS63 KBIS 101816
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1216 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THIS AFTERNOON NORTH CENTRAL.
HOWEVER... COLD WIND CHILLS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ADVISORY IS LIKELY AFTER THE CURRENT WIND CHILLS CLEAR THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW IS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE SNOW AREA WILL
MOVE SOUTH BY THIS EVENING AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES THE SNOW SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING IN CLEARING SKIES WHICH
ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ACROSS THE NORTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 839 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

BOWMAN RADAR SHOWS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AN DICKINSON NOW REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW AT 7 AM MST.
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE
MORNING. MODELS PIVOT THE SNOW AREA SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH AS COLDER
AIR POURS IN THIS AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION. DO NOT HAVE THE WINDS TO CREATE MUCH HAZARD TODAY ALTHOUGH
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ALSO TRIMMED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO JUST THE NORTHEAST...ROLETTE AND PIERCE COUNTIES
THROUGH NOON CST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

UPDATE MAINLY FOR EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS. INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESULTED IN RISING TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR IS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE
NORTH. AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY SOUTHWEST...ALONG
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM IS AGAIN WIND CHILLS...LIGHT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN TRIMMED TO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH STUTSMAN
COUNTY TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBSERVED WIND CHILL TRENDS THROUGH 930
UTC. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18 UTC. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER
WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...AS THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER REINFORCING...BUT SHORT LIVED...ARCTIC
AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS TO 35 BELOW ARE POSSIBLE.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS...A WEAK CLIPPER WILL
PROPAGATE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AROUND ONE
INCH OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM TROTTERS...THROUGH
MEDORA...BOWMAN AND HETTINGER. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IS BY FAR
NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...GOOD ISALLOBARIC FORCING
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS
THE PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE PROPAGATES THROUGH. THIS WILL CAUSE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
AT THIS TIME A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONCERNS
DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING NUMEROUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...INCLUDING THE
10/00Z GEM/GFS/ECMWF...FAVORS NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODS OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
THE FIRST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH FAVORED
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE BITTERLY COLD
CONDITIONS...WITH RELATIVELY MILD WESTERLY FLOW BOOSTING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW. CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST WARM-UP POSSIBLE BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

AT NOON CST...AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA WAS POISED TO MOVE
INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FROM KDIK-KBIS- KJMS WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR AFTER 00Z. VFR FROM KISN- KMOT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25KTS WILL CAUSE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....WITH VSBYS GENERALLY 3 TO 6
MILES IN THE BLOWING SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE BEYOND 00Z/6
PM CST TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
AVIATION...WAA