Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
000
FXUS63 KBIS 170234
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
934 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy northwest winds, with a 20 percent chance of snow,
through tonight mainly central and eastern North Dakota.
- Cooler temperatures expected Sunday. Breezy northwest winds
lingering across portions of the south and the James River
Valley.
- Much warmer, dry, and breezy to windy conditions expected
Monday.
- Unsettled weather pattern middle through end of the upcoming
week bringing daily snow chances and cooler temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Isolated to scattered snow showers continue across central North
Dakota this evening. Other than the brief quarter mile vsby at
Rolla this afternoon, most areas that received snow remained in
the 3-6SM range, but a few areas did drop down to 1-3SM
briefly. As of 9:30 PM, there were some scattered snow drifts
on the NDDOT website from the Turtle Mountains into the Devils
Lake Basin. Some of the areas far north that saw the snow
earlier, already looked to be at least partially dry. However,
any wet areas that do not dry off tonight will likely ice up so
there will probably be some patchy icy spots tonight over
eastern portions of central ND, mostly from the Turtle Mountains
south through the James River Valley.
Currently, RAP analysis shows the snow squall parameter
maximized over eastern Stutsman, Lamoure and Dickey counties and
dropping south. Although snow squall parameters lined up this
afternoon/evening overall they were pretty weak. Potential
instability and low level moisture were modest at best and there
wasn`t a strong low level focus for ascent. Lapse rates were
steep and winds were strong so there was a convective nature to
the precip and enough winds lower visibilities in the heavier
snow shower, but stronger more focused convective snow showers
didn`t really develop. There should be enough forcing though to
keep a mention of light snow through the evening hours, with
chances likely tapering overnight as high pressure builds from
the northwest.
Sky cover and PoPs were updated based on latest radar and
satellite imagery and a blend of short term guidance through the
early overnight hours.
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Isolated to scattered snow showers continue from north central
ND into the James River Valley. Current obs and webcams show
minimal impacts so far. However, Rolla did drop down to a
quarter mile briefly as a heavier snow shower moved over.
Currently, the strongest reflectivities are over eastern Foster
and northeast Stutsman counties and moving south southeast.
Latest RAP analysis shows better parameters for snow squalls
moving into the far northeast CWA in the next 1-2 hours and then
sliding through the JRV around mid evening. Will continue to
monitor. Made some minor adjustments to sky cover based on
latest satellite imagery. Otherwise no significant changes to
the going forecast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Cyclonic unsettled flow aloft will allow snow showers to become
abundant through the evening, and possibly lingering into the
overnight hours. Still of note is an increased snow squall
parameter in some of the higher res guidance mainly in the
northeast and east of Highway 3. Looking closer into this, there
is increased 0-2 KM moisture in these areas through tonight.
Winds in the lower levels are increased as well with some weak
convergence at times, yet start to diminish tonight. Instability
is present, although on the to modest end. There is decent
lapse rates, with surface based CAPE generally less than 75
J/KG. Thus looking at individual components of the snow squall
parameter cannot rule out an isolated burst of heavy snow,
especially in the northeast and areas east of Highway 83 where
decreasing theta-e will be found through the night. Otherwise
look for some breezy west northwest winds to linger across the
east through tonight. Low temperatures will be in the teens with
some lower 20s. Perhaps some clouds and isolated snow showers
lingering through Sunday morning. Clouds then diminish in
coverage through the day, with cooler temperatures expected.
Some breezy northwest winds may also linger, mainly in the south
and east. These winds then diminish Sunday night and become
southerly. Lows Sunday night will once again be in the teens to
lower 20s.
With a passing surface low and building ridge aloft, Monday is
expected to overall be warm and dry. A light and variable wind
in the morning will become a breezy southwest wind, switching to
a breezy to windy west northwest wind later in the day. These
winds could perhaps approach advisory level, although a quick
glance at the ECMWF EFI shows low confidence in this. However, with
warming temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s, afternoon
humidity values could drop into the 20s. This could lead to
perhaps some near critical fire weather conditions, especially
south of Interstate 94, and even more specifically in
southwestern ND where afternoon high temperatures could be in
the 60s. Ridge starts to flatten on Tuesday perhaps allowing a
weak front to push across the area. This will cool down
temperatures, although they could remain above normal. Mainly
dry conditions are also expected through Tuesday.
This flattening of the ridge could open the door for more active
weather starting mid week. The chance for at least 1 inch of
snow in the NBM Wednesday through Thursday is in the range of 40
to 80%, with the chances for at least 6 inches less than 20%.
There remains uncertainty on timing and strength of the
disturbance that pushes through. This is also seen in the
temperature spreads in the NBM, although most still indicate
cooler than recent pattern. Late in the week into next weekend
could also remain cooler and potentially active. The spread in
ensembles provides the NBM to keep in chance pops for snow each
day, while temperature spreads remain somewhat wide yet still on
the cooler side. Of note is currently the NBM has higher chances
for at least 1 inch and 6 inches of snow in a 48 hour period
over the upcoming weekend compared to the mid week event. This
could be from some ensembles showing a deeper wave moving across
the US. This is currently about 50% of ensembles, so the finer
details will still need to be worked out and monitored.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 935 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Low VFR to MVFR ceilings are possible at KMOT, KBIS and
especially KJMS this evening through Sunday morning. Scattered
snow showers could produce short periods of MVFR to IFR
visibilities at these TAF sites this evening and possibly
lingering into the overnight hours. VFR ceilings are expected to
prevail across western ND including KXWA and KDIK through the
00Z TAF period.North to northwest winds sustained around 20-25
knots gusting to around 30-35 knots early this evening will
diminish but will remain breezy across the forecast area around
10 to 15 knots western ND and 15 to 20 knots central ND.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH