Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 292310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
610 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS PRETTY MUCH
ENDED ALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING POPS AS A RESULT.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY MEADER EAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD LEAD TO AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...LOWERED FORECAST LOWS TO THE UPPER 40S IN MOST SPOTS
AS THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN
BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW INDICATED PATCHY FOG IN THE
GRIDS...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
BASED ON THE EVENING TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WHILE HIGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES TROF PUSHING
OVER THE WEST COAST WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE
SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED AHEAD OF THE WAVE SLIDING
THROUGH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE TOWARDS THE EAST AND DIMINISH BY MID
EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE EXITS THE AREA AND RIDGE PASSES OVER. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST AS BROAD TROF PUSHES OVER
THE ROCKIES. POTENT INITIAL SHORT WAVE MAKES ITS APPROACH AROUND
MID-DAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY WITH PLENTY OF
SHEAR TO SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SEMI-ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

SHOWERS/STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ONGOING OR WILL BE
MOMENTARILY SATURDAY EVENING AS A STRONG EMBEDDED IMPULSE AND DEEP
SURFACE LOW EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
STILL PROJECT PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER. DUE TO THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...DO NOT ANTICIPATE HYDRO PROBLEMS AT
THIS TIME. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA (WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83) IN PROXIMITY TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

ACTIVE FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY WHEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS...EXITING OFF TO OUR EAST LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT. IN THIS FEATURE`S WAKE...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT PLENTY
OF EMBEDDED ENERGY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING
SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR LABOR DAY.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT DRIER WEATHER...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM ORIENTATED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO
IMPACT KISN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 21Z.

OTHERWISE...MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN OVER KJMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...THEN TRANSITION TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER KJMS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TM




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