Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220941

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
341 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This morning through tonight)

Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The main forecast highlight in the short term period will be fog
and low stratus today.

Currently, deformation zone col centered over central ND with
strong areas of low pressure northwest and south-southeast, and
high pressure centers northeast and southwest. This results in
weak to non-existent flow from the surface up through the boundary
layer and into the middle layers of the atmosphere across much of
central ND. Coupled with recent snow melt and moisture wrapping
back to the west into the eastern and central Dakotas north of the
Southern Plains low results in a large area of low stratus
central and east with dense fog central within the center of the
deformation zone/col. A west/southwest sfc wind over my west
keeping the stratus and fog confined to my central and eastern
counties at the moment. Temperatures depend on where clouds are
or are not.

Low level surface pattern remains unchanged through the morning
so will maintain dense fog headlines as is with this forecast
issuance through 18Z. Some models are suggesting fog lingering
into the afternoon hours so an extension of headlines is
definitely a possibility.

Eventually tonight winds will transition to westerly from west to
east along with increasing mid to upper level clouds as a mid
level S/WV trough moves east into the region. This should act to
erode any lingering low clouds and/or fog. High res models hint at
some light snow activity southwest, though nothing impactful.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Mid level trough passes east across the region Tuesday with dry
conditions as a sfc ridge builds east into the Dakotas. Warming
trend along with dry conditions Wednesday into Thursday daytime as
an upper level ridge builds across the Rockies and then across
the Great Plains. We transition to southwesterly flow aloft during
the day Thursday, with a long wave trough then developing east
across the central CONUS Thursday night and Friday. This will push
a cold front through the region along with some chances for snow.
This wave is fairly progressive and models maintain low QPF

Both the GFS/ECMWF bring an embedded mid level wave/clipper-type
system through our area Friday night into Saturday, which will
bring a reinforced shot of colder air along with some light snow.
Return flow on Sunday should then moderate our temperatures a bit
for the second half of the weekend. This warming trend is
currently advertised to continue into the early parts of next week
ahead of another cold front. No major storms within the 10 day
period at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Issued at 110 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Widespread low to very low IFR conditions continue from across
the James Valley and the Turtle Mountains to just east of KMOT but
does encompass the southern Missouri River Valley of south
central ND including KBIS. Fog and low stratus will continue to
expand west towards KMOT overnight. The fog and stratus will then
likely persist through Monday morning with conditions slowly
improving during the afternoon.


Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for



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