Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240253

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
953 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017


Issued at 953 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

No significant changes with this forecast issuance. Showers
continue to stream north across the Dakotas as multiple embedded
waves lift out of the closed low over the Desert Southwest.

Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Forecast remains on track. Adjusted POPs now through the evening
based on latest radar imagery and high res guidance (ESRL HRRR,
RAP, etc). Also expanded thunder wording to encompass more of the
James River Valley based on latest SREF thunder probs.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread rainfall is expected by this evening. Broad scale
lift produced by a significant upper trough over the western US
and a surface trough draped across the eastern Dakotas will
produce scattered showers across southwest and south central
North Dakota this this afternoon. Showers will become more
widespread this evening and overnight as a shortwave trough ejects
across North Dakota and provides enhanced widespread lift in a
strongly baroclinic environment. Rainfall amounts near 2 inches
are forecast for the far southeast with about a half inch central
and lesser amounts northwest.

A small area of thunderstorm chances will exist across Dickey and
Lamoure counties today, otherwise only showers are expected. Low
probability of hydrology issues from the rain at this time as its
forecast over a 18 to 24 hour period in an area that should be
able to absorb the rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread showers will linger on Sunday across much of central
and eastern North Dakota, diminishing Sunday night. Otherwise,
we`ll see cool temperatures through mid week with scattered frost
chances Monday and Tuesday morning. Low temperatures fall into
the mid 30s west and south central during that period. Highs
Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid 50s to around 60. A slow
moderation of temperatures is expected by the end of the week with
highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday through Friday with mainly
dry weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)

Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

MVFR/IFR ceilings will spread north across western and central
North Dakota tonight, lasting through Sunday morning. Showers will
also develop north across the state and will continue off and on
for all terminals. Moderate to heavy showers at times, especially
for KJMS. Precipitation chances decrease west and central 18Z and
onwards. KISN will have the lower chance for precipitation
through the period.




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