Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 010603
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
103 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR HARVEY...WITH SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW IN
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...AND WESTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL...EAST WINDS WERE
TURNING NORTHERLY AROUND THE LOW. AREA OF SHOWERS WAS OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIFTING NORTHWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS
WAS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
HAVE KEPT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL...THEN RAIN CHANCES DECREASING WITH TIME AS THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA BY/BEFORE DAYBREAK.

THE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WAS FAVORED
FOR SOME FOG THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IN THE
NORTH CENTRAL...HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE MAIN FEATURES. HOURLY TEMPS AND
WINDS WERE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SURFACE LOW HAS SHIFTED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHILE
BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS
WAY NORTH. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER FOR EVENING UPDATE AS
ONLY LIGHTNING WITH THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS
SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RES MODELS SO HAVE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS LOW LIFTS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTH/EAST OF BISMARCK DOWN
TOWARDS ELLENDALE IN AREA THAT HAD SOME CLEARING EARLIER AND IS
NOW BEING FED BY WARMER/MOIST AIR PULLING IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW. INITIAL STORM PRODUCED A TORNADO JUST OVER THE BORDER
IN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE STRONGER SHEAR IS NOTED. MODEST SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUES...THOUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA BETWEEN FAITH...PHILIP AND PIERRE. INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS
EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN
DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. LATEST 19Z/18Z RAP/HRRR
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SECOND BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW INCREASING
REFLECTIVITIES ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER FROM AROUND HETTINGER TO
SELFRIDGE AND LIFTING NORTH NORTHWEST. THUS THINK THE MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
WHETHER OR NOT WE GET THE CONVECTION IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. CLOUD
COVER HAS LIMITED INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON THUS MINIMIZING THE
THREAT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE STACKED SYSTEM
MAY YET BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER. IF THAT DOES
OCCUR THE STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR WOULD BE ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF SEVERE WIND GUST OR POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. THE BEST GUESS FOR PLACEMENT WOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE FROM JUST WEST OF THE BISMARCK MANDAN
AREA...EAST TO NEAR JAMESTOWN AND ELLENDALE...AND PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HARVEY AND CARRINGTON AREAS. TIMING IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM BEGINNING AROUND 21 UTC IN THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL...AND ENDING
AROUND 02 UTC WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE WEST COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AND THE COLD AIR PUSHING IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A THE LARGE TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
00 UTC FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER 00
UTC FRIDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DEVIATE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE 12 UTC
GFS IS BY FAR THE FASTEST WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROUGH...PUSHING ALL PRECIPITATION EAST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY FRIDAY 00 UTC. THE 12 UTC ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
OF THE SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION EVEN PLACES A 500 MB CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY AT 06 UTC AND HAS WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION
LINGERING THROUGH 18 UTC FRIDAY. FOR THE FORECAST HAVE WENT WITH THE
LATEST 12 UTC GEM NHEM WHICH SEEMS TO BE A 50/50 SPLIT OF THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION THAT COMES TRUE CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE THURSDAY FRIDAY SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT THE WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION COMES
THROUGH ALONG WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THERE COLDEST ACROSS THE
STATE...LOWER 30S TO UPPER 20S. IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
SYSTEM A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CENTRAL...PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL REMAIN THIS MORNING AS CLOUD
SHIELD ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE LOW - WHICH WAS NEAR HARVEY AT
05Z. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA BY
DAYBREAK. SOUTH WINDS AT KJMS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFT 08Z/10Z. WEST
WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z
AND CIGS TO BECOME VFR BY 18Z. WINDS DECREASING BY 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...JV





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