Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 192143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Tonight, a shortwave trough will begin to sweep across the
Northern Plains. A cold front associated with it will shift
through western and central North Dakota, with increasing chances
for precipitation after midnight. The bulk of the precipitation
should be rain, however, light freezing rain is a possibility
across north central North Dakota tonight into Monday morning.
Temperatures should only marginally support freezing rain for a
few hours during the early morning hours. Therefore, impacts
should be limited, but even a brief period of freezing rain can
cause hazardous travel.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Monday looks breezy as the surface cold front and upper shortwave
trough sweep through. The system looks a little faster than
previously forecast, so the bulk of the low level cape and
shear should be further east by the time afternoon heating kicks
in. This will limit chances for thunderstorms to far southeast
North Dakota.

Another system slides through beginning Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday afternoon, mainly affecting northern North Dakota.
Colder air will filter in behind this system late Wednesday into
Thursday. Rain is forecast to change over to snow across the
north Tuesday night. There is the potential for up to one inch in
the far north. Across the south, expect mild temperatures Tuesday
with highs in the 50s, and possible lower 60s southwest. Cooler
Wednesday with highs in the lower 30s north to mid 40s south.
Another system slated for Thursday through Friday continues to
trend snow chances south of Interstate 94. Because of this more
southerly track, colder air via a northerly flow will encompass
all of western and central North Dakota. Expect highs only in the
20s Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

An area of low stratus is currently over portions of western and
north central ND. This area of low stratus will remain mainly over
the northwest and far north central this afternoon and then expand
in areal coverage tonight. Late tonight into Monday morning, an
upper level system will swing through the area bringing a period
of rain showers followed by clearing skies as winds shift west.
There is a small threat of mixed precipitation, including freezing
rain. Confidence too low at this time to mention in the TAFs.
Clearing expected to be moving through KJMS around 18Z Monday.




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