Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 241241
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
641 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 635 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Adjusted POPs based on latest radar imagery and high res model
trends. NAMNest seems to have the best handle on light rain
placement so leaned in its direction.

Some gusty winds starting to materialize with 34KTS at Beach. We
will be reevaluating wind headlines over the next few hours.
Models are def not as favorable for the coverage we are currently
advertising. Feeling is best placement for wind adv headlines this
morning will be along the Missouri River and points south and
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Issued at 415 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be strong winds
and areas of light rain this morning/early afternoon.

Currently, strong embedded mid level S/WV over northeast Montana
moving east-southeast, with an associated inverted sfc trough
extending west across northern North Dakota. Cloud cover rapidly
increased across much of western and central ND the past 3-4 hours
ahead of the wave, with light rain also quickly developing
eastward along to south of the sfc trough/cold front. Boundary
layer temperatures remain mild south of the sfc trough keeping
overnight temperatures south of Highway 2 thus far in the 40s and
50s. Colder temperatures in the 30s along to north of the trough.

Mid level S/WV will push east-southeast across the Northern Plains
this morning, with dry northwest flow aloft in its wake for this
afternoon and tonight. Areas of light rain will continue to move
across western and central North Dakota ahead of the wave and
along the sfc trough/cold front as it moves south now through 18Z.
Most if not all precipitation will have ended by early this
afternoon. Precip type will remain all liquid with warm air aloft
and at the surface including road surface temperatures.

Regarding winds, latest model guidance take the pressure rise
bubble on a slightly more southerly track, into west central ND
(Beach to Watford City) 11-15Z, then into south central ND
15-18Z, then out of our area by 21Z. Upstream obs across southeast
Alberta where models have the peak pressure rises now show peak
gusts to 42KTS. The wind advisory went into effect across western
ND at 09Z, and will go into effect for central ND at 12Z. The
timing and path of the pressure rise bubble, coupled with BUFKIT
analysis of winds within the mixed layer, would all support this
morning as seeing the strongest winds with gusts afterwards
quickly tapering off to sub-advisory. ALso, rain activity is
mixing some stronger winds aloft to the surface with a few obs
across eastern MT over 30MPH. Thus will keep the advisory as is
for now and adjust through the morning hours as needed. Still
think by early this afternoon most of the wind headlines will be
allowed to be expired.

Much cooler and seasonal tonight behind todays CAA as winds taper
off, the sky clears, and a cooler airmass moves into the area.
Lows in the 20s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 415 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Mainly quiet with above normal temperatures through the extended
period.

After the slight cool down today and for Saturday in the wake of
this mornings cold front, boundary layer temperatures recover for
Sunday with southerly return flow developing underneath a mid
level ridge with forecast highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

Ridge pushes east early next week with a mid level trough moving
through the region Monday/Monday night. This wave will bring a
chance for some light rain. Strong CAA in the troughs wake Monday
night will see another cool down for Tuesday.

Large scale pattern remains fairly progressive through the rest of
the work week. Any storm systems will be fast moving and
temperatures look to remain seasonal to above seasonal for the
first week of December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)

Issued at 635 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Light rain was moving east/south through western and central ND this
morning. Areas of low VFR ceilings accompanied the rain; MVFR
ceilings are also possible. Strong northwest winds are forecast to
impact western and central areas however uncertainty remains as
to how strong winds will become. Current guidance suggest forecast
winds may be too strong.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening for NDZ003-
011-012-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon for
NDZ001-002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AC


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