Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW AREAS WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY CLOSING IN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES
WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT BRINGING
ANOTHER FRIGID NIGHT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WIND CHILL
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT AT 8 PM CENTRAL...THROUGH 10 AM CENTRAL
FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST. UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS
WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE PACIFIC BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH LIGHT WINDS
STARTING TO SWITCH WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN DROP BELOW ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MORE OR
LESS EAST AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE WILL
BE PRESENT WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO BRING WIND CHILL CONCERNS
OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...SO HAVE GONE WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...FRIGID WIND CHILLS REMAIN INTO THE MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND DEPARTING HIGH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE TEENS OVER MOST
LOCATIONS...20S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET AND MAINLY
CLEAR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HIGHLIGHT THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY EVENING THE ARCTIC HIGH IS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODERATE WARMING SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO RISE INTO
THE 20-30 DEGREE RANGE...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DEEPEN AN EXISTING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST/ROCKIES...AND ALLOW SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
MONDAY...THEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW THE
MODELS SUGGEST ANY PRECIPITATION KEEPING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND
MORE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOW AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00 UTC FRIDAY TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-021>023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH





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