Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220248
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
948 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Updated the cloud cover with the latest satellite data. The
satellite shows a very defined cloud line with clear skies
northeast and cloudy skies southwest. Otherwise current forecast
looks good.

UPDATE Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Current forecast looks good so far. Clouds cover the southwest
and will slowly move northeast tonight eventually reaching the
north central. Overnight lows are warmest southwest and coolest
over the snow covered and mainly clear areas north central.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

A return above normal temperatures minimal chances for light
precipitation on Wednesday highlight the short term forecast.

Surface high pressure across the Northern Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley this afternoon will propagate into the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. Return southeasterly flow will commence across
the region tonight and continue through Wednesday. A warm front
will enter western North Dakota Wednesday afternoon with highs in
the 50s expected along and west of US Highway 85 with 30s ahead of
the front across the James River Valley through the Turtle
Mountains. The 12 UTC global suite continues the trend of less and
less QPF expected with weak impulses embedded in the upper level
right, with now only slight chance at best expectations for light
snow on Wednesday central.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The development of split upper level flow is favored on the 12
UTC global suites as an upper level low cuts off across the
Southern Plains Thursday night and into the southern Great Lakes
potentially by Sunday. This favors continued above normal
temperatures with highs in the 40s and 50s. The best chance for
precipitation is on Thursday associated with the influence of a
stronger shortwave north of the aforementioned low. There is a
slight chance for freezing rain Thursday morning across southern
North Dakota, however, the presence of rather dry warm layer aloft
may mitigate how much precipitation can hit the ground.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Large arctic high pressure covering Manitoba through the Northern
Plains is forecast to move slowly east tonight. A warm front
associated with a lee side trough in Montana will move to western
North Dakota by 00Z/7 pm Wednesday. Expect MVFR conditions to
develop at KDIK after 13Z then become VFR after 20Z. Otherwise vfr
to low VFR KISN-KMOT-KBIS-KJMS. Gusty southeast winds to 28KT
will develop most areas after 13Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
AVIATION...WAA


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