Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 200623
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1223 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOWER VISIBILITIES IN FOG
REMAINING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLY STRATUS-FREE. THE HRRR ALSO INDICATES SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO MAINLY TIOGA/STANLEY TO MINOT/GARRISON...TO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMESTOWN AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 9
AM SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AREA THE HRRR IS TARGETING IS ALSO WHERE
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THIS
REGION...EXITING INTO MINNESOTA LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK AND HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON FOG...WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM CROSBY/WILLISTON TO MINOT/BISMARCK TO THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS/JAMESTOWN. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS MORNING FOR
ANY CHANGES/EXTENSIONS OF THIS ADVISORY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE LOOP...SURFACE OBS AND REPORTS...HAVE
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. REPORTS AND OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITIES DURING THE PAST
HOUR SHOW QUARTER MILE OR LESS VSBYS FROM THE HAZEN AREA EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN BURLEIGH COUNTY AND INTO KIDDER AND STUTSMAN
COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...VISIBILITIES ARE NOT AS LOW
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO FOSTER COUNTY NORTH OF
JAMESTOWN. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR DOES INDICATE LOWER VISIBILITIES
WORKING THIS WAY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE HAS
BEEN LOW STRATUS AND FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA
ALL DAY AND ROADS MAY BE SLIPPERY. ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO
REPORTS AS OF YET...THERE HAS BEEN REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
JUST TO THE NORTH IN CANADA AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

MAIN UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON IS TO EXPAND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...AND MCLEAN...SHERIDAN AND WELLS COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WEATHER CAMERAS INDICATE
THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES ARE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRATUS
LAYER FROM DIVIDE AND WILLIAMS COUNTIES SOUTHEAST TO AROUND
GARRISON IN MCLEAN COUNTY AND THEN EAST TOWARD HARVEY IN WELLS
COUNTY. LATEST HRRR MODEL ITERATION SHOWS THE STRATUS EXPANDING
SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVENING...WHICH LOOKS TO VERIFY FROM LAST FEW
SATELLITE IMAGES. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR UPDATES FOR SKY COVER AND
POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PERSISTENT FOG ACROSS THE NORTH WITH CURRENT SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING
THE  STRATUS IS EXPANDING SOUTH INTO THE JAMES NORTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE A SOLID STRATUS AND FOG LOW LEVEL
SOUNDING FROM WILLISTON THROUGH MINOT WHILE THE GFS MIXES IT OUT
THIS EVENING. WILL LEAN TO THE NAM AND KEEP FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
THOUGH THE NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL TONIGHT. FURTHER ISSUES INVOLVE
VSBYS AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE NEAR TIOGA TO STANLEY. DO NOT
SEE MUCH IMPROVEMENT THERE AND SHOULD SEE LOWER VSBYS IN MINOT
LATER TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET. WILL GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM
TIOGA TO STANLEY THROUGH 9 PM THEN EXPAND IT EAST THROUGH MINOT
AND TO BOTTINEAU AND MCHENRY COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FOG WILL ALSO INSULATE A BIT SO HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES FOR
OVERNIGHT NIGHT LOWS.

ON SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING LIGHT AND SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION. EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SOME SLEET AND
SNOW BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND DEEPENS SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

PAST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LATEST 12 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BACKED THE SYSTEM
UP A BIT...DEVELOPING A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
MONDAY WHICH SLOWLY PROPAGATES EAST INTO TUESDAY. THESE SOLUTIONS
BOTH SHOW MORE QPF OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

VERTICAL PROFILES ALSO LOOK TO BE BETTER MIXED AFTER THE WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...RAIN...AND SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT THE SOUTHWEST MAY
SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW...HOWEVER FOR THE REST OF
THE STATE ALL SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. MONDAY AND TUESDAY PRECIPITATION
IS FORECAST AS ALL SNOW AS WELL FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WITH THAT SAID IF MODEL SOLUTIONS PROGRESS THE TROUGH ALONG
QUICKER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PROFILES ALOFT COULD BE TO DRY FOR
ICE CRYSTALS AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA COULD ONCE AGAIN
SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

EARLY ESTIMATES ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGE
FROM AROUND 2 INCHES WEST TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES CONTINUE AT KISN KMOT AND KJMS. LATEST
SATELLITE AND MESOSCALE HRRR INDICATE THE STRATUS/FOG SHOULD MOVE
INTO KBIS SHORTLY AFTER 06 UTC. WILL LEAVE KDIK OUT OF THE FOG
TONIGHT AS LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR BACK OFF ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STRATUS. STRATUS WILL ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
KISN AND KBIS SHOULD CLEAR DURING THE MORNING...KMOT AND KJMS
CLEARING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025-035>037.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...TWH






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