Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 230354
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
954 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AT 930 PM CST. LIGHT PRECIPITATION...MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED NORTH CENTRAL.
RAIN EARLY AT JAMESTOWN HAS ENDED WITH ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO ROTATE UP INTO THEM LATER THIS EVENING. VERY
COMPLICATED MIXED PRECIP PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD
LATER TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. DO NOT SEE
SUFFICIENT REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT FORECAST AS ITS TRENDING
OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION.

CURRENTLY...DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SNOWFALL FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH AN INVERTED SFC
TROUGH SOUTH TO NORTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND...CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION FROM GRAND FORKS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY
AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. RAIN/SNOW LINE FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN THE EASTERN JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEY REGIONS...WITH RAIN
REPORTED IN VALLEY CITY AND SNOW AT JAMESTOWN. THIS TRANSITION
LINE WILL REMAIN NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WHEN IT SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT SNOW SOME LOCATIONS ALONG WITH FOG AND
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FOR HEADLINES...WILL LEAVE AS IS WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
WEST AND EAST. THE DEVILS LAKE REGION HEADLINES FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AS WE SATURATE ALOFT.
OPTED TO THROW OUT A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
NOT UNDER HEADLINES AS HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND EXPECT WET ROADS THIS AFTERNOON TO BECOME ICY THIS
EVENING ONCE ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO FREEZING AND BELOW.

DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW ACROSS THE WEST WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST UNDER THE TROWAL. A FEW MODELS
BRING THE SNOW AXIS FARTHER WEST INTO BISMARCK...SO POSSIBLE
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT. FOR NOW LEFT AS IS.

WRAP AROUND SNOW BECOMES MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WIND ON TUESDAY WILL BLOW THE
SNOW AROUND AND CAUSE SOME TRAVEL HEADACHES. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO SHOULD BE GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

SNOW POTENTIAL ON CHRISTMAS DAY WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED.

THE CURRENT MODEL SUITE PROVIDES GOOD CONSENSUS FOR LOW
PRESSURE...PROPAGATING FROM THE ROOKIES...TO PRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY LIES WITHIN HOW FAR
NORTH THE PRECIPITATION BAND WILL PUSH INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE GEM
BRUSHES THE SOUTH...KEEPING MOST OF THE SNOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF ARE A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE...PUSHING SNOW NORTH AGAINST THE INTERSTATE 94 BORDER.
CHANCES FOR SNOW BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...CHRISTMAS
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

ARCTIC LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD
FRIDAY...PRODUCING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA...LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDE FREEZING DRIZZLE...SNOW AND VERY
LOW TO VERY IFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS
MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE ABOVE IFR TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ025-036-
037-045>048-050-051.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001-009-017-031>033-040>044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...WAA





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