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000
FXUS63 KBIS 040946
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

INTERESTINGLY THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW
ON THE SYSTEM...NAMELY THAT IT WILL BE SLOW TO PULL EAST AND
PROLONG THE SNOW OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY INTO TONIGHT...
ALTHOUGH AT A REDUCED INTENSITY. WILL KEEP THE WARNING IN PLACE
BISMARCK AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANOTHER 2
INCHES OF SNOW...MAYBE 3 IN SOME AREAS...GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING...AND WIND CHILLS. HAVE REPLACED THE WARNING WEST
WITH AN ADVISORY...AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW...GUSTY WINDS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING...AND
WIND CHILLS.

AS THE GFS HAS OUTPERFORMED OTHER MODELS WILL LEAN ON IT FOR THE
SHORT TERM. MID LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING. THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH BACK INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS AIDS IN
KEEPING LIGHT SNOW FALLING EAST HALF INTO TONIGHT.

BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES SHOULD BE LEFT.
THEN...VERY COLD.

WILL ALLOW CURRENT WEATHER HEADLINES TO PLAY OUT BEFORE ISSUING
ANY FOR WIND CHILLS THE REST OF THE WEEK. TO DO OTHERWISE WOULD
UNNECESSARILY COMPLICATE SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED...
NAMELY THE ONSET OF A VERY COLD PROLONGED SPELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING HIGHLIGHTS. NO BIG CHANGES IN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO
UTILIZE A MODEL BLEND WITH PERSISTENCE FOR WEATHER ELEMENTS.

BY THURSDAY...ARCTIC AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING A DRY BUT VERY COLD AIR MASS OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO NORTH TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO FAR SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE EVEN
COLDER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH EACH DAY. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 BELOW
AND 15 TO 25 BELOW RESPECTIVELY. WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD. WITH CURRENT WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS IN
PLACE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY WIND CHILL HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
TIME.

WE DO SEE A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ON
SUNDAY OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT
TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALSO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR.

MODELS DO HINT AT MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST WED DEC 4 2013

MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS IN -SN AND BLSN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z. CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SNOW TAPERS TO FLURRIES KISN-KDIK WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND KMOT-KBIS AROUND NIGHTFALL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>021-031>034-040>044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ022-023-
025-035>037-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH