Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 231710
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1210 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR TROTTERS TO KILDEER...GLEN
ULLIN TO HETTINGER. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT LOCATED
NEAR/ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER. LOCAL RADAR INDICATING PERIODS OF
LIGHTNING NEAR NEW SALEM/MORTON COUNTY AND NEAR KENSAL/STUTSMAN
COUNTY. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C/KM AND 9C/KM OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...HAVE EXPANDED THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS MOSTLY COVERS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE MAXIMUM ASCENT NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT. CIRRUS CLOUDS MOSTLY DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

WE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
ARE ONGOING FROM SOUTHWEST ND THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE
12 UTC BISMARCK SOUNDING REVEALED AROUND 160 J/KG OF MUCAPE DUE
TO STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUFFICIENT FOR THE IN-CLOUD
AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING DETECTED
BY THE LIGHTNING NETWORK WITH THE CONVECTION IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING. ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE MORE CAPPED FURTHER
WEST...WHICH IS PERHAPS WHY THE ACTIVITY WEST OF BISMARCK HASN/T
YIELDED LIGHTNING THUS FAR /THOUGH WE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING AS WELL/.

OTHERWISE...WE ALSO INCREASED EAST-NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS TODAY IN
MOST AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST ND. THAT WAS BASED ON A
MIX OF BIAS-CORRECTED SHORT-RANGE...RAPID-REFRESH MODEL GUIDANCE
AND LAMP OUTPUT. THAT MIX MATCHES OBSERVED TRENDS THUS FAR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
THUNDERSTORM WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES DID DEVELOP ACROSS
MCINTOSH COUNTY DURING THE 10 UTC HOUR. THE 08-10 UTC HRRR
ITERATIONS AND 06 UTC NAM NEST SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

FOR THIS MORNING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND UPPER JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED. THIS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED ON THE
00-08 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION SUITE ITERATIONS. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT...A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE THE MENTION AS SHOWERS FOR NOW.

FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH
OF THE LOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SPC DOES HAVE SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THEIR DAY ONE OUTLOOK. SEE
THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNDER
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE...WITH PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 GIVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD WRAP AROUND AND DEFORMATION
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING OFF DRAMATICALLY
NEAR CANADA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY MORNING IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH ARE
FAVORED ACROSS THE I-94 AND ND HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDORS. AS SUB-
FREEZING LOW LEVEL AIR IS ADVECTION INTO THE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DWINDLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAY YIELD
ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND AND DEFORMATION ZONE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA. HOWEVER...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION MAY BE ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL STEADILY INCREASE WITH 25 TO 35 KT GUSTS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO LOWER TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY TO GO WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THAT SAID...WE HAVE ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE ONSET OF
LOWER CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION AT ANY SPECIFIC TERMINAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...CJS



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