Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300259
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
959 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 02 UTC...OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10KTS WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 752 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH
THIS UPDATE AS WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 KTS WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY RECOVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS...ESPECIALLY CLOUD
COVER THROUGH 2230 UTC...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE EVENING. WHILE WINDS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN THE RED FLAG
WARNING ARE MARGINAL...WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO CONTINUE GIVEN
THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND AREAS
OF SMOKE. H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH H850 DRY AIR MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA AND
WYOMING MIXING TO THE SURFACE. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 39
DEGREES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 YIELDING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 MPH BRING RED FLAG FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION SMOKE FROM THE FIRES IN WASHINGTON AND IDAHO CONTINUE
TO BRING OPAQUE SKIES TO THE REGION. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES OUT
THE SMOKE FUMIGATES TO THE SURFACE AND WHILE THE VISIBILITIES ARE
GENERALLY 3 MILES OR BETTER THE SMELL IS EVIDENT. ALSO SMOKE
THICK ENOUGH AT MINOT AND BISMARCK TO BE DETECTED AS A CLOUD LAYER
ON ASOS`S IMPACTING AVIATION.

TONIGHT THE THICKEST PART OF THE SMOKE MAY DRIFT EAST OF THE
REGION ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER AREA UPSTREAM TO MOVE IN. SO
WILL CONTINUE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. APPROACHING
WEAK COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE H500 FLOW
ALOFT AND THUS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST. AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE WIND SPEED SWILL BE MERCIFUL AND DO NOT SEE
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARISING FROM THE COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
FEATURES. INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AND FORCING ROBUST SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORMS.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH WEST TO EAST IN THE
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

BEYOND MONDAY...OUR SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND RIDGING OFF TO OUR EAST. A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
TROUGH COMBINED WITH ANY EMBEDDED WAVES ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES STILL APPEAR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT...IF NOT ALL DAY
SUNDAY...ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SMOKE EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD


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