Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 201139
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH
DAKOTA PUSHING TOWARDS THE EAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE. GOING
FORECAST AND CURRENT HIGH-RES MODELS REFLECT THIS DEVELOPMENT
PRETTY WELL...PUSHING THE ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...THEN WINDY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR TODAY.

CURRENTLY...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER ADVECTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT THE MOMENT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG ACROSS MY NORTHEAST.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
S/WV TROUGH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH...CENTRAL...AND EAST AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG PRESSURE
RISES MATERIALIZE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS WAVE LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY MOST LOCATIONS. BUFFER DATA
INDICATE MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL REEVALUATE LATER THIS
MORNING. COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SURGE ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MT/WY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL COOL BY
10-15F DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE DECREASE AS SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS DROP INTO THE LOW 40S TO MID
30S BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

QUIET NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS.
THE CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE DRIER AIR...WILL
RESULT IN OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE 30S WEST AND 40S CENTRAL AND
EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE PLAINS TO
START THE WEEK WHILE A CUTOFF LOW LIFTS ITS WAY OVER THE
SIERRA/GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE RIDGE...APPROACHING THE PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO START THE
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES COMING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY OPENS UP AND MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...WITH OUR AREA REMAINING ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGES SO WILL KEEP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. RIDGING THEN RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TO
CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCT -SHRA WITH SOME -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY. LCL MVFR
VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30-35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS





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