Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
306 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

A split flow regime will develop across the western CONUS and Canada
leading to the eventual development of a closed low over the Great
Basin by Thursday. During this development, southwest flow aloft
will become predominant over the northern plains allowing both
shortwave energy and mid to high level moisture to stream north into
the region. This will set up a scenario  that will support both
precipitation efficiency due to the tropical plume, and due to
the slow movement of the closed low, a rather extended period for
rain chances.

For the short term period, rain showers and scattered thunderstorms
will develop across western and North Dakota late this afternoon
and tonight as the first in a series of weak shortwaves move
through the region. The CAM models all are in agreement with the
best chances across the north tonight. With Cape very limited will
generally go with showers across the north tonight. By Wednesday
the wave moves through and scattered showers and a isolated
thunderstorms will linger. Highs on wednesday will be cooler, in
the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Main feature in the long term will be the negatively tilted h500 low
forecast to move from the Great Basin region Thursday eventually
merging into the northern stream trough over the northern and
central plains by Saturday-Sunday. While both the GFS and ECMWF
are in general agreement the ECMWF is definitely more progressive
in merging this upper low with the northern stream on Saturday.
With a fair amount of uncertainty on the track and timing will
end up focusing the highest pops west Thursday and Friday where
there is more certainty. Then Saturday a good push of moisture
should swing through the central sections of the region as the
upper low swings through. Storm total rainfall is forecast to be
nearly 2 inches far northwest to around a half an inch south


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the 18z TAF period. Rain showers
will begin moving in across western North Dakota later tonight with
KISN likely being impacted with rain most of the night.




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