Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 012341
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
641 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

CONVECTION SEEMS A BIT WEAK/LACKING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IN THIS
REGARD LATEST 18Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF LOOK A BIT OVERDONE WITH
QPF FOR THE EVENING HOURS. ACROSS THE WEST...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN MONTANA WILL SOON BE MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TOO WEAK IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. ADJUSTED POPS
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE EVENING CENTRAL-EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

CURRENTLY...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWESTERN
SASKATCHEWAN SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WEAK SURFACE LOWS WERE CENTERED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
RIDGE...ONE IN WYOMING AND THE OTHER OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. AT UPPER LEVELS...NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUED
ACROSS THE STATE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS HAS MAINTAINED MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH
OVERLAYS LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS RESULTING FROM DISSIPATING FOG AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE STATE AROUND
60F. VERY SMALL-SCALE RAIN SHOWER CELLS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SOME
PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT ON SAT PICS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF MONTANA.
REGIONAL RADARS WERE PICKING UP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THIS REGION. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES FROM THIS
SHORTWAVE CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE CONVECTION OVER
ALBERTA/SASK/MT TO REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE BEST
FORCING FOR STRONG STORMS IS MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THIS IS WHERE INCREASING BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST
RESULTING IN PART FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET STREAK. THE BEST
CAPE IS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WITH BETTER CAPE VALUES
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS THIS EVENING SOUTHWEST.

OTHERWISE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 60...AND
HIGHS THURSDAY FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DESPITE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINKING THAT MIXING OF THE ATMOSPHERE
AND INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY KEEP DENSE FOG FROM
FORMING. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH BUT WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AS THE THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES OUT THURSDAY EVENING.

THE MAIN FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THIS WEEKEND. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CANADA THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. STRONG WAA AND COMPRESSIONAL COOLING AHEAD OF THE LOW/COLD
FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S SATURDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA SAT NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A STRONG COLD
FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS
THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE FURTHER WEST...THEREFORE WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR MONDAY. WARMING TREND TOWARDS MID-WEEK AS
RIDGING TRIES TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. EXPECT THE IMPACTS OF SMOKE (FU) TO LESSEN
OVER TIME AS THE LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES SHOULD CARRY
THE DENSER SMOKE LAYER FURTHER EAST OF THE REGION WITH TIME
TONIGHT. AT WORST BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS KISN-MOT-KJMS. OTHERWISE
VFR. HANDLED THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH VCTS (VICINITY) DUE TO
THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA



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