Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 250510
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1210 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
LOCAL RADAR DEPICT THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA WITH ITS ENERGY TRANSFERRING INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REMAINS IN
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PER 00Z GUIDANCE AND LATEST
HRRR. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MIXED THUS FOG NOT AN ISSUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND LOW OVER WESTERN NUDGING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS A BIT
FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST TO ADDRESS THIS. SHOWERS SHOULD THEN
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

FOR EARLY EVENING UPDATE HAVE PUSHED LOW POPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA A BIT FURTHER EAST AS THEY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW.
EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY WITH THIS TO ON THE LIGHT SIDE...CONTINUALLY
DECREASING AS IT PUSHES EAST. HAVE ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FURTHER EAST WITH CURRENT TRENDS. OTHER THAN THAT...THINGS LOOK
GOOD. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

BESIDES ONGOING FLOOD ISSUES...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR MINOT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH. LATEST
RADAR AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK THE POPS A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE LOW. GRADIENT WINDS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH IS A GOOD THING SINCE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE MID 40S.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

FOLLOWING THE LARGE HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
LIFTED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. COOL EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES.
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXCEPT IN KJMS
WHERE CIGS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY 10Z MONDAY. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z MONDAY WITH CIGS
LIFTING TO LOW VFR THEREAFTER. SCATTERED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE AT
KISN/KMOT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND ENDING BETWEEN 13Z AND
17Z MONDAY. REST OF THE AERODROMES WILL BE DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

THE HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CAUSED OVERLAND
FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SIOUX...GRANT...AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES SAW
LARGE AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MORTON
COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE
BIG MUDDY CREEK BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT...SOUTHWARD TO
HEIL...CARSON...AND LARK. THESE AREAS CONTAIN SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS THAT ARE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HEART RIVER.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN
AFFECTING MORTON AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
HYDROLOGY...KS/JV






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