Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 060534
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST NOW ONSHORE OVER NORTHWEST
WASHINGTON STATE PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP. A LONE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE WAS DETECTED RECENTLY NEAR WICKERSHAM
WASHINGTON...JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUED WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE NET RESULT BEING SCT TO BKN CLOUDS STREAMING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CURRENT FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON
TARGET OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

MAIN FOCUS NOW AND INTO THE NEXT FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE
EVALUATING THE LATEST BUFKIT DATA AND BAGGALEY BLOWING SNOW MODEL
TO DETERMINE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION REGARDING THE HIGH WIND
WATCH AND BLIZZARD WATCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 03 UTC.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS A
RATHER MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION UNDER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY A BLEND
OF THE 20-22 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION...RAPIDLY UPDATING SUITES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH TROUGH STRETCHING FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. QUIET
WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AS RIDGE BUILDS
EASTERLY AS A TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD.

ON SATURDAY...TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTERLY WITH UPPER LOW
CLOSING OFF NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND
SLIDES OVER SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA. STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP ALOFT...THOUGH WILL
NOT MIX DOWN UNTIL AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.
COOLER AIRMASS STARTS TO WORK INTO WESTERN LOCATIONS LATER IN THE
DAY WITH WESTERLY WIND INCREASING...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING 50-60KT
WINDS MIXING DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE ANTICIPATED HIGH WINDS AND
SNOW...WITH MORE CERTAINTY IN ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW IN THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WE HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...TO RUGBY...HARVEY...TO CARRINGTON. WE HAVE ALSO EXTENDED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH SOUTH THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE CLIPPER LOW ON SATURDAY EVENING IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TO LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM WITH WARM ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH H850 WINDS OF 60-65 KNOTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SURFACE WIND SPEEDS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL INTO THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY (SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH)...AND REACHING INTO THE HIGH WIND CATEGORY
(SUSTAINED AT 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 58 MPH) AT TIMES. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING THAT THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 65 MPH IN SOME
LOCALES. THEREFORE WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING
IN THE WEST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

REGARDING SNOWFALL...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW SATURDAY EVENING...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW
FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT AROUND 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE TURTLE
MOUNTAIN AREA...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AREAS FROM BOTTINEAU TO RUGBY
TO HARVEY AND CARRINGTON. WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOWFALL WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW.
THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW LOW THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE IN THE
BLOWING SNOW. A BLIZZARD REQUIRES 1/2 MILE OR LESS FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
VISIBILITIES CAN CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS AS WELL. THUS THE
BLIZZARD WATCH WILL HEIGHTEN AWARENESS REGARDING THE AREA OF CONCERN
FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER WITH COLD
AIR TO THE EAST YET MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH KMOT WILL BE ON THE
FRINGES OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ002-010-019-020-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY TO 9 PM CST
/8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ003-011-021-022-035-036-046-047-050.

BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-025.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR NDZ012-037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS


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