Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 112018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
218 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

No big highlight in the short term period. Mild temperatures
return for Tuesday west and central.

Currently, trailing embedded S/WV impulse within northwest flow
aloft pushing south across the western Dakotas behind the clipper
from last night. Precipitation associated with this wave all but
done over my western counties as forcing exits the region.
Gradient forcing continues to quickly decrease as weak high
pressure builds into the Northern Plains. Winds thus continue to
wind down. CAA stratus starting to break up from south central
Canada south into North Dakota.

For tonight: Warm air advection commences from west to east
tonight as a warm front slides east into the Dakotas. Mostly
cloudy conditions will trend scattered tonight west into central,
with another increase in clouds across central and eastern
portions of the state after 03-06Z as an upper level jet streak
moves south into the region and produces mid to upper level
clouds. Increased overnight lows with the WAA and expected clouds,
into the low/mid 20s.

Another clipper system approaches from the north during the day
Tuesday. Mid level S/WV will be moving into southern Saskatchewan
by 00Z Wed, with associated surface low pressure over
southwestern Manitoba and a warm front draped north to south
across the eastern Dakotas late Tues aft. This will put western
and central ND in the warm sector with daytime highs climbing into
the 30s from the Turtle Mountains south through the James River
Valley, 40s central and lower 50s southwest. Boundary layer
temperatures would support even warmer daytime highs, though lack
of good mixing via BUFKIT analysis so opted to maintain close to
the inherited forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Mid level low moves southeast across eastern Montana and
southwestern ND Tuesday night, with associated surface low
pressure moving south-southeast across the Red River Valley. CAA
with this clipper on the weak side but still expecting an uptick
in winds Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. Some light QPF is
advertised by the GFS/ECMWF across the central part of the state,
though high res models mainly dry. A wintry mix will be possible
with any precipitation that does fall given thermal profiles and
road sfc temperatures. Something to keep an eye on for the next
few forecast cycles. Temperatures cool for Wednesday as a
secondary cold front moves south into region.

Barrage of clippers continues with the next wave Wednesday night,
followed by another Friday/Friday night. Much uncertainty with
these smaller scale features 4-5 days out. Safe to say each will
bring chances for precipitation, period of strong winds, and
larger than normal temperature swings with WAA & CAA.

Both the 12Z GFS & ECMWF now maintain this active northwest
pattern through the weekend. Earlier runs of these models were
advertising more of zonal flow pattern developing which at the
moment is gone.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR stratus will continue across western and central North
Dakota this afternoon, though with a few breaks developing as dry
air starts to push south into our region. VFR conditions will
develop across western North Dakota this evening spreading into
central ND by 06Z. Periods of MVFR stratus will persist the
longest at KJMS through 14Z Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds will
continue to slowly decrease through this afternoon.




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