Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272040
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
340 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
evening across western North Dakota. An upper level wave continues
to push southeast across the region. This is producing the needed
lift for precipitation. A moderately unstable atmosphere may
produce some strong thunderstorms, but severe weather is not
anticipated as shear and lapse rates are rather unimpressive.

Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
western and southern North Dakota as moist upslope flow and upper
level divergence continues across the region. Additionally, low
stratus and fog may develop as the boundary layer remains rather
moist and flow remains weak. At this time it appears western North
Dakota is the favored location for any fog and stratus development
as dry northerly winds will help erode boundary layer moisture
across portions of eastern North Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through
next week...with perhaps the exception being Saturday. North
Dakota will be in northwest flow through the remainder of the
week. This will bring wave after wave across North Dakota. Timing
individual waves and associated precipitation is difficult at
best, but general model consensus is western and southern North
Dakota have the best chance at seeing precipitation through the
rest of the week.

Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend as a ridge begins
building into the Northern Plains. Readings in the 90s will be
common.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 27 2016

High pressure over the eastern Dakotas and low pressure in eastern
Montana will keep a east to southeast surface flow over western and
central ND through the 18Z taf period. VFR conditions expected at
KMOT and KJMS through the forecast period. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms with periods of mvfr cigs will be possible at
KISN...KBIS and KDIK through the period. Areas of IFR cigs and
visibilities in fog will be possible Thursday morning at KDIK.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH


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