Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 121556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
956 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Issued at 954 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Quick update to begin converting the Winter Weather Advisory to a
Wind Chill Advisory as visibility begins to improve.

UPDATE Issued at 753 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Added Grant and Sioux counties to the Winter Weather Advisory for
blowing snow and dangerous wind chills with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Quick update to freshen up the winter weather headlines. Forecast
remains on track this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Blowing/Drifting snow through the morning and dangerous wind chills
through tonight are the main headlines.

Currently, an arctic boundary per MSAS is now into northwest and
north central ND. Initial surge of gusty winds have been very
impressive with gusts between 50 and 60 mph. These strong gusts
appear temporary, lasting between one and two hours as noted by
upstream/local observations. Near blizzard conditions within the
winter weather advisory is on track, and will monitor closely if
duration of gusts change. Otherwise, most gusts behind this
initial surge are in the 30 to 40 mph range. An 8mb pressure rise
sinking into southeast Saskatchewan is forecast to transition
eastward this morning. Main impact will be hazardous travel with
low visibilities in blowing/drifting snow. Winds abate this
afternoon, and current timing of previous winter weather advisory
will be maintained. As the winter weather advisory comes to an
end, wind chill headlines will be needed through tonight. It
appears that a wind chill warning may be warranted for some
counties in the northern James River Valley north to the Turtle
Mountains, with a wind chill advisory surrounding it through
tonight. With our current headlines in place, we collaborated with
neighboring offices and felt it would be best to evaluate the
transition from the winter weather advisory to wind chill
headlines later in the morning during the dayshift.

Otherwise, frigid conditions take control through tonight. The core
of the coldest air shifts east tonight as warm air advection

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Dangerous wind chills Friday morning. A weak shortwave may graze
the southern James River Valley Friday per NAM and GFS. The SREF
and ECMWF keep it dry. The Superblend also keeps the POPS south of
the border as of now. Otherwise a zonal flow sets up with dry
conditions through at least Wednesday. Highs will rise into the
20s Monday, then into the 30s by Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 954 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2017

Gusty northwest winds between 30kt and 45kt will result in blowing
snow and a reduction in vsbys into the MVFR/IFR range across the
central terminals through 18z Thursday. KJMS/KMOT will likely
hold onto the lower vsbys until 21z Thursday. Winds begin to abate
after 21z and vsbys will improve back to vfr thereafter and
through the remaining TAF period.


Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for

Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Friday for NDZ001-



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