Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231616
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1016 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations show a
swath of stratus across northwest, north central, and now shifting
towards south central ND. None of the high resolution models are
handling this correctly. Thus manually adjusted sky grids to
current satellite imagery and extrapolated into the afternoon
hours based on current movement. Increased areal coverage of
flurries north and just nudging into south central ND through mid
afternoon. Updates forthcoming.

UPDATE Issued at 843 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Added a period of flurries across northwest and north central
North Dakota this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 620 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Light snow exiting the southeast CWA this morning. Area of MVFR to
IFR stratus spreading from northwest into north central ND. Made
some minor adjustments to PoPs and sky cover. Otherwise no
significant changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Main forecast problem in the short term period will be snow
exiting the southeast CWA and possible cloud/aviation issues
across the north.

Currently, surface low pressure is situated over southern
Minnesota with an inverted trough extending into south central ND.
Light snow continues to dissipate over the south central into the
James River Valley. An interesting note was a local enhancement in
reflectivities on the back edge of the precipitation shield. Rap
analysis shows weak trowal within the deformation zone and some
hints of conditional instability, lending to the enhanced
reflectivities. Latest reflectivities continue to show some local
enhancement on the very back edge of the precipitation shield, but
with no real impacts. This area is expected to dissipate/move
out of the area by mid morning.

To the north, stratus continues to sink south from Saskatchewan
into northwest ND and appears destined to move into KISN shortly
with MVFR ceilings. Latest iterations of mesoscale models bring
the lower stratus mainly east of KISN and into KMOT this morning.
However, latest satellite is showing the leading edge drying up as
it approaches KMOT. Will likely be a last minute decision for 12Z
Aviation forecast as how to handle the stratus at KMOT and KISN.

Otherwise pretty quiet today with temperatures similar to
Thursday.

High pressure tracks across the forecast area tonight and moves
into the northern Great Lakes region by early Saturday morning. We
utilized a blend of Bias Corrected raw model guidance for
forecast lows tonight which was cooler than our given guidance.
This seems reasonable and it has been performing well recently.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Main forecast issue in the long term period will be precipitation
chances on Saturday.

Overall, an active weather pattern in the long term period across
the continental U.S. but the northern plains region looks to be
among the quieter areas during this period.

Another wave moves from the southern Rockies into the southern and
central plains on Saturday, bringing widespread precipitation the
plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. We will be
on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield on Saturday
with light snow spreading from South Dakota Saturday morning into
Minnesota by Saturday evening. glancing the south central into
eastern North dakota with light snow. Snowfall amounts are
expected to be an inch or less over the south central into the
James River Valley with the exception of possibly a little more
than an inch over eastern Dickey and Lamoure counties. The west
and north central will remain dry.

Upper level energy tracking along the international border will
keep a small chance of snow showers Sunday and Monday and
possibly into the middle of next week, but the energy tracking
across the northern plains will be weak as the main storm track
remains well to our south. Temperatures through the period are
expected to be seasonable with highs mainly in the 20s to lower
30s and lows in the single digits to teens.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

An area of MVFR to IFR ceilings from KISN to KMOT will spread
slowly southeast this morning. Kept areas MVFR ceilings at these
aerodromes through much of the morning. Mesoscale models keep
this stratus away from KBIS and KJMS and will follow suit. Light
snow will exit KJMS by 14 UTC, otherwise VFR conditions here and
KDIK and KBIS through the forecast period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH


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