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000
FXUS63 KBIS 091958
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
258 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLE IN A RATHER BENIGN NORTHWEST
FLOW FIELD TONIGHT. AGAIN AS TEMPERATURES INVERSION DEEPENS
OVERNIGHT MORE TRAPPED SMOKE WILL BE SEEN. ON THURSDAY AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTH WILL BE MAINLY CAPPED MOST OF THE DAY.
THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO GET THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTH AND HAVE BUMPED THE PROBABILITY TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW HEAVIER
RAINFALL LIKELY TO BE NORTH IN CANADA. AN ISOLATED INCH IN
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL WITH
MORE BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. SO
A FLOODING CONCERN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVE INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z FRIDAY
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HOW MUCH OF THE CAP WILL BE ERODED THURSDAY EVENING FROM
MINOT TO BISMARCK AND EAST TO JAMESTOWN WILL DICTATE IF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN MATERIALIZE THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND
DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE IN A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT. A RETURN LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL SET UP ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. A STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY AND SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL PUSH ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION THREAT OUT OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
MORNING. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW THEN TAKES CONTROL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
70S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD PER
GFS...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES BRUSHING THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE CURRENT ALLBLEND GIVES A DRY SCENARIO AND WILL LET IT
STAND FOR NOW. HOWEVER...EXPERIENCE WITH A NORTHWEST/CYCLONIC FLOW
FROM PAST YEARS IS NEVER COMPLETELY DRY...AND MAY NEED TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE ECMWF IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION WILL BE SMOKE LAYER FROM FOREST FIRES IN
CANADA EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. AS TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS DEVELOP AND
DEEPEN OVERNIGHT SMOKE GETS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. VSBYS
LIKELY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY BUT MAY FALL INTO IFR AT TIMES KISN-
KMOT-KBIS. SINCE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON VSBYS AS SMOKE IS NOT
UNIFORM DID NOT GO IFR...BIT SOME LOCAL LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE. ON
THURSDAY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER 12Z. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING FAR WEST. MORE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NORTH CENTRAL. AGAIN DUE TO TIMING
AND AREA UNCERTAINTY HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA