Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221639

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1139 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Near term highlights, scattered thunderstorms in northern Rolette
County continue to slide east and expect to taper to isolated
before shifting east by 18z. Increased high temperatures south
central to around 70F per MAV guidance which is reflected with
current trends.

Concern for isolated late afternoon thunderstorms along the 850mb
front, stretched from around Halliday to Bismarck and Jamestown
between 21z and 00z. Visible imagery shows a well defined 850mb
vorticity center/lobe moving south from McHenry County. This is
forecast to slide atop the surface front during max heating as it
works into central ND. Some indications from the high resolution
models for isolated convection near/along and south of I-94 this
afternoon. Given the proximity of the low level front/convergence,
and steep low level lapse rates of around 10C/km, air parcels
should be propelled to the LFC. Cape/Shear remain very weak, but
as we are seeing in Rolette County, it doesn`t take much.
Equilibrium levels fairly low at 15kft, so if something does
initiate and can be maintained, expect it to be a low topped storm.

Other concern comes later tonight, when a band of moderate to
heavy snow could set up between Minot, Harvey and Carrington. Will
be working on these details this afternoon, but a few inches of
snow certainly possible at this point. Considering a Special
Weather Statement if the event continues to have support from
other guidance. Collaboration with WPC and FGF earlier this
morning is leaning towards at least an SPS solution.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Positive lightning strikes from the International Peace Garden to
near Rolla have developed in the last 15 minutes. Frontal convergence
along with steep mid level lapse rates and weak most unstable
cape have triggered isolated thunderstorms. Updates forthcoming.

UPDATE Issued at 816 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Little change with this update other than to blend to observed
trends through 12 UTC. Did add a mention of afternoon showers to
the northern James River Valley ahead of the cold front per the
12 UTC RAP/HRRR iterations.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Front has started to work into the area over far northern portions
of North Dakota, as low clouds are now starting to push towards
Williston, and fog is being reported at Rolla. For morning update
have advanced timing of cloud coverage a bit over northern
locations, and have increased cloud coverage a bit near the Turtle


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Current surface analysis places high over the central plains,
while to the north a cold front is lined up along the
international border. Upper level analysis places weak high over
South Dakota with ridge over the western United States.

For today...main focus will be aforementioned cold front which
will gradually settle through northern North Dakota, pushing into
central portions of the state late afternoon into the evening.
Notable temperature gradient expected across the area with far
northern areas topping out in the 40s, while much of the remainder
of the area will see the 60s. Scattered rain showers will
eventually develop along and behind the front, with some snow
developing later tonight as cooler air works in. Greatest chance
for measurable snowfall remains generally along and to the north
of Highway 2.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Front continues to droop into the area and takes on more of a
northwest to southeast orientation as cold air backs in. During
the day into the evening precipitation chances remain towards the
north near right entrance region of a passing jet streak, though
this spreads southward overnight as a shortwave approaches from
the west and a surface low starts deepening over South Dakota.
With cooler air pulling into the system, a conversion towards
snow possible late.

On Monday widespread precipitation chances continue as shortwave
meanders easterly as surface low shifts towards Minnesota, with
chances decreasing in the afternoon/evening with the departure of
the system. Temperatures remain cool, with highs in the 40s over
most locations.

An unsettled pattern develops for the remainder of the forecast
period bringing occasional precipitation chances along with below
average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

IFR/MVFR cigs at KISN/KMOT will continue through 18 UTC then
scatter to MVFR/low vfr cigs in stratocumulus this
afternoon/evening. Scattered rain showers this evening changing
to snow tonight are forecast northwest and north central. IFR
conditions possible in snow.




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