Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1216 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Temperatures late this morning were rising a tad quicker than
forecast. Used latest iteration of high res model blends for hourly
temp forecast for this afternoon. This resulted in a slight raising
of forecast max temps for this afternoon. Otherwise surface front
was east of the James Valley, and the western edge of the clouds was
approaching the Turtle Mountains and James Valley.
Westerly/northwesterly winds were increasing as forecast. Should be
a mostly sunny day with brisk winds and highs in the 50s across
western and central ND.

UPDATE Issued at 858 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Little change for today outside of observed trends through 13
UTC. Overall, a breezy day remains on track across western and
central North Dakota with favorable mixing behind the surface
trough across eastern North Dakota this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper wave continues its quick progression through the region with
some light reflectivity showing up over northern portions of the
area on radar. Will continue low precipitation chances to address
this as it moves on its way.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Current surface analysis places low over northern Saskatchewan,
with trough dipping down into the northern plains. High remains
over the central Rockies into the Great Basin. Upper level
analysis places ridge over the Pacific northwest into British
Columbia, with trough over the midwest into the central plains.
Modest short wave moving through northwest flow is now nudging
into our area, bringing some cloud cover to the area and possibly
a few flakes or sprinkles to the far northwestern part of the

For today, aforementioned surface trough/boundary and short wave
will scoot off to the east, possibly resulting in some very light
snow or rain over northern portions of the area this morning.
Skies will clear in the afternoon, but breezy conditions are
expected to develop behind the aforementioned system. Near
average temperatures expected. Quiet weather tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Upper ridge over the western United States meanders towards the
east bringing dry conditions and a warming trend to start the
week with above average temperatures. A short wave passes mainly
to the north on Wednesday as a cool front shifts through. Dry
conditions are expected to remain, though cooler but still above
average temperatures are expected behind the front. Temperatures
again rebound to end the work week. Upper flow shifts southwest
for the end of the week bringing precipitation chances to
portions of the area going into the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The western edge of the mid level cloud cover was approaching the
Turtle Mountains and had reached the James Valley. A mostly clear
and breezy afternoon with northwest winds gusting to 25-30 knots
expected. Breezy again Monday with westerly winds increasing during
the later periods of Monday morning to set up another breezy
afternoon on Monday. VFR conditions for all TAFS for the 18z TAF




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