Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231647

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Tail end of 850mb-700mb frontogenetical forcing per SPC
Mesoanalysis/RAP13 is now over western Ward County, and this
lines up well with current radar trends. Snow in Minot will be
ending in the next hour. To the east, Rugby and south to Harvey,
expect snow to slowly wane through the afternoon as a weak
shortwave rides atop this frontogenetical area as it slowly
shifts east. Lowered high temperatures a couple degrees,
especially across the north where cloud cover and easterly winds
should keep highs in the 30s this afternoon. Used a blend of the
colder 12z MET Guidance and current forecast. Forecast remains on
track with a cloudy sky and much cooler temperatures this

Fog across the southwest is gradually improving per latest Webcams,
and will mention it in the grids for another hour or two. Another
area of precipitation in far northeastern Montana continues to
advance east and northeast with time. Higher resolution models
maintain some qpf into the afternoon, but the strongest ascent
remains in Canada. More precipitation/snow will be arriving
tonight in the northwest as a shortwave in southwest Alberta and
central Idaho shift into western ND. Will be focusing on this in
the afternoon for snow amounts tonight into Monday morning.

UPDATE Issued at 755 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Quick update to adjust PoPs for radar trends through 1230 UTC, and
increase snowfall amounts into the early afternoon between US
Highway 2 and ND Highway 200 across central North Dakota based on
trends in the 06 UTC GFS/NAM and 11 UTC RAP/HRRR. These solutions
favor a re-invigoration of the snow band early this afternoon as
a shortwave across eastern Montana propagates east. An additional
1 to 3 inches of accumulation is possible.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

For morning update have adjusted core of higher snow chances north
a little bit in line with latest radar depiction. Latest NAM
frontogenesis seems to have the best grasp on the position of
this, and has it shifting east/diminishing west to east this
morning. Therefore will continue the trend of backing off on
precipitation chances through the morning. Have also added the
mention of patchy fog over the far southwest through mid-morning.
Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Current surface analysis places low near James Bay with cold front
sweeping through the upper midwest crossing through northern South
Dakota into far southern Montana. Upper level analysis places weak
ridging to the lee of the Rockies, though a variety of short waves
noted in the flow. Periods of snow continue in area of enhanced
frontogenesis mainly along and between highways 200 and 2.

For today...strong broad scale lift gradually diminishes with
precipitation tapering off. Upper ridge to the west quickly breaks
down as a potent short wave quickly approaches the area.

For tonight...aforementioned short wave continues its approach
while a surface low deepens over northeast Wyoming and slides
through central North Dakota. Precipitation will again develop
over the region, particularly by late evening and overnight.
Greatest chances for accumulating snow will be over northern
locations where a couple inches will be possible. Elsewhere, a
rain snow mix is possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Precipitation gradually shifts towards the east on Monday as short
wave advances. Greatest chances remain in the morning, when an
inch or two of snow will be possible north. Temperatures will
remain quite cool, with highs in the far north only reaching into
the 30s.

Well below average temperatures remain through mid-week with a
modest warming trend expected towards the end of the week.
Occasional disturbances moving through will bring low
precipitation chances from time to time through mid-week. Models
are hinting at greater precipitation chances coming next weekend
as an upper low deepens near the four-corners region and lifts
towards the plains, but we are a long way out for determining
where this system will move and how strong it will be.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Mvfr/ifr cigs will plague all terminals through the forecast
period. Another slug of snow/rain will enter the western terminal
of KISN by 06z Monday, and spread east and south through Monday
morning. Visibilities in the mvfr range with the precipitation
tonight and Monday, but could be lower at times depending on the
coverage and intensity of precipitation.




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