Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 181149
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
649 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Modified hourly weather elements to better match latest
observations. Main pressure rise bubble continues to push east
across central ND, now approaching my eastern counties. In the
wake of this bubble winds have tapered off some, but expect the
winds to ramp back up as the mixing layer increases in depth. Peak
winds will not be nearly as high as we saw with the initial
pressure surge earlier this morning, where we had two
observations record a 58 and 60 MPH gust. Still windy with peak
gusts approaching the 50 MPH mark along and north of highway 2
where we placed a wind advisory. Fire weather headlines remain
valid.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Forecast highlights include a wind advisory and a Red Flag Warning
for northern and most of central North Dakota through early this
evening. See the fire weather forecast discussion below for further
details regrading the Red Flag Warning.

A very strong cold front now crossing central ND will continue to
plow east, shifting through the James River Valley by 7AM CDT.
Strong cold air advection in combination with strong pressure
rises and steep low level lapse rates will result in sustained
winds between 25 and 35 mph, with gusts to 50 mph across northern
and into central North Dakota today. The ongoing wind advisory
remains in good standing. Farther away from the wind advisory,
across southwest and south central ND, expect sustained winds of
20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Aside from the strong winds,
mostly sunny and much cooler today with highs in the 50s north,
to lower 60s far south.

Winds will begin diminishing in the mid afternoon across southwest
ND, and gradually abate from southwest to northeast though sunset.

For tonight, low level warm air advection quickly takes control
again as winds shift to the south and southwest. Mostly clear
conditions with overnight lows between 35F to 40F.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

One more warmup Thursday and Friday, then back to more October-like
temperatures Saturday through Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday will feature plenty of sunshine and warm air
with highs well into the 70s, and some lower 80s. Not expecting
any record warmth, but highs will average 20 to 25 degrees above
average for this time of year. South to southwesterly flow will
dominate western and central ND through Friday, ahead of a shortwave
trough propagating into then out of the Northern Rockies. A cold
front associated with this trough will sweep through Friday night,
producing a chance of showers, then another chance for showers with
the upper trough Saturday. Windy Saturday and much cooler with
highs in the 50s.

Zonal flow Saturday transitions to northwesterly by Tuesday per
GFS/ECMWF. In doing so, another cold front shifts through Sunday
followed by a chance of rain Monday as a shortwave trough shifts
through, transitioning the upper flow from westerly to northwesterly.
Tuesday looks dry, but remaining cool with highs continuing in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)

Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

A strong cold front working through central North Dakota early this
morning will support strong west to northwest winds of 25kt to 35kt
across the terminals today. Low level wind shear ahead and just
behind the front can be expected. Winds will diminish mid to late
afternoon and weaken to less than 10kt by sunset. Vfr cigs/vsbys
through the period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 152 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

Strong west to northwest winds sustained between 25 and 35 mph
will coincide with minimum relative humidities around 20 percent
this afternoon into early evening. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are
possible, especially in the Turtle Mountains. The combination of
strong winds and low relative humidities will create critical fire
weather conditions for northern and most of central North Dakota
this afternoon into early evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025-035>037.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for NDZ003>005-011>013-
023-025.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ001-002-009-
010.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...NH
FIRE WEATHER...KS



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