Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KBIS 180349
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MAIN ISSUE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A HASSLE AGAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN THE
LOW CLOUDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL ND...BUT TREND SEEMS
REASONABLE SO NO BIG CHANGES HERE.

LATEST 00 UTC NAM AND 02 UTC RAP SHOW A COUPLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE LEAD WAVE
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
GROUND REPORTS ARE INDICATING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WITH THE SMALL BAND LIFTING QUICKLY
NORTH...OPTED TO KEEP THIS AS A CONTINUED MENTION OF FLURRIES AS
GETTING A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH IS NOT LIKELY.

LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
WEST ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. ALTHOUGH RAP/NAM
QPF IS CURRENTLY NIL...THE RAP/HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME LIGHT RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE 07-12
UTC TIMEFRAME. THINKING AS WE GO THROUGH A FEW MORE ITERATIONS OF
THE RAP/HRRR...THIS MAY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INCREASE GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE. WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
INCREASING SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...HAVE EXTENDED FLURRIES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THINK MID SHIFT WILL HAVE THE
TIME TO RE-EVALUATE AND ADD A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE
MORNING HOURS IF NEEDED. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT BUT THIS
SECOND WAVE LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO GIVE SOME OF US A LITTLE MORE
THAN JUST FLURRIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

LOW STRATUS REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. DO EXPECT THE STRATUS TO BEGIN TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...COVERING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WHEREVER WE HAVE THE STRATUS
WE CAN EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES. THIS IS CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL BY
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST WITH TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES
RIDGE WORKING TOWARDS THE MIDWEST WITH COMPACT LOW LIFTING THROUGH
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD LOW CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...THOUGH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS ARE ALSO MOVING THROUGH WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEST WILL SPREAD TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE
EAST WHILE MILDER AIRMASS SLOWLY STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
AREA...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION KEEPING CLOUDY SKIES OVER
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME CLEARING DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY...ACTIVE END TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
HOLIDAY WEEK.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THIS COULD SPARK SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES DEVELOP
ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS SEEM POSSIBLE WITH THIS WAVE AS IT SHOULD BE
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOW THAT WILL ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

SPEAKING OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW AND A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS (12
UTC ECMWF/GFS) VARY GREATLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE AND
PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...CLOSE ATTENTION WILL BE GIVEN
TO FOLLOWING MODEL RUNS AND THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SIGNIFICANT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

IFR STRATUS CONTINUES AT KDIK WITH MVFR STRATUS AT KDIK. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KBIS AND KMOT ARE ON
THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS...CURRENTLY CLEAR...BUT WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MVFR STRATUS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE 00 UTC FORECAST PERIOD. KJMS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY
CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH MVFR STRATUS MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...AND
THEN REMAINING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOKING A LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS WILL
PROBABLY ADD AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES OF KDIK...KBIS...KJMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. FOR NOW WILL LIKELY KEEP VSBYS ABOVE 5SM UNTIL WE SEE MORE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.