Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 290310
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1010 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...AS WELL AS A
TAD FARTHER SOUTH. OPTED TO EXTEND HEADLINES TILL 1AM CDT.
SOUTHWEST ND WINDS HAVE COME DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SO ALLOWED THE
HIGH WIND WARNING TO EXPIRE THERE.


UPDATE
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

INHERITED FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR EDITS WERE NEEDED FOR THE
EARLY EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE TO
GUST OVER 50KTS WEST AND CENTRAL WHERE THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN
EFFECT. BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES GUSTS TO 70-75 MPH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN A BIT 3Z-5Z LATER THIS EVENING AS THE TOP OF THE
MIXING LAYER LOWERS...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS MY NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE HIGH WIND WARNING AS
IS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY PARTS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE SO FAR TODAY. MAIN CHANGE
TO HEADLINES WILL BE TO EXTEND THE HIGH WIND WARNING WEST SEVERAL
MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE H850 WINDS AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH 04Z. RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
WILL SPREAD AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTHEAST
AS BISMARCK THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z
AND SHOWERS ENDING BY MORNING. BREEZY WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL FINALLY DIMINISH AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION.

A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER AND DRYER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS SOUTH AGAIN AND SEVERAL FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
HAZARD TO AVIATION WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 60 KTS
KISN-KDIK-KMOT-KBIS THIS EVENING. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 04Z.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40KTS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025-034>036.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ037-047-048.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH


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