Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 200619
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

For this update, allowed the winter weather advisory to expire
across the southwest, while cancelling some additional counties
across south central, including Grant, Sioux and Emmons. Per obs,
radar and webcams, light snow continues across much of the
state, slowly diminishing across the northwest. Kept the southeast
counties in the advisory, where radar indicates best ongoing coverage
with increased radar returns upstream in SD, along with slightly
stronger northeast winds.


UPDATE Issued at 937 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Light snow continues to fall over the much of the area, with
reports of around 2 inches over southern locations, so
precipiation forecast remains in good shape. Temperatures over
eastern portions of the area have been holding quiet steady over
the past few hours so have raised overnight lows a little bit.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 640 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow continues over much of the area so have increased snow
chances throughout much of western and central North Dakota. Main
concern at this point is that the NDARB radar near Bowman is
starting to show some decrease in activity. Will have to keep an
eye on that, because if the snow continues to taper off we may be
able to cancel the advisory over that area early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
winter weather headlines across the south now through Tuesday
morning.

Currently, embedded mid level S/WV trough lifting northeast across
the region interacting with a baroclinic zone to produce
developing snowfall across southwest and far south central North
Dakota early this afternoon.

Snow will continue to spread north and east into this evening,
with the best accumulating snowfall across the south more within
the baroclinic area and where better boundary layer moisture
resides. Winter weather headlines remain valid.

I opted to increase POPs even across the north, more so for a
high POP/low QPF scenario as it will snow just not accumulate as
much south. I also opted to add Hettinger and Grant counties to
the winter weather advisory as latest model output now puts 3 to
maybe 4 inches there along with the rest of my southern counties.
Will keep the expiration times as is, later this evening southwest
and Tuesday morning far south central and southeast. High
pressure currently over far northern ND and into northeastern
Montana will slowly build into western ND this evening, then
across central ND Tuesday morning. Dry air and subsidence
associated with the sfc high combined with decreased mid level
forcing will end snowfall west to east, thus the end times of the
winter weather adv remain in good shape at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 251 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Arctic air moving in with an area of high pressure will bring
another period of bitter cold to the region. Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning will see widespread lows in the double digits
below zero. Combined with a steady westerly wind around 10 mph,
dangerous wind chills as low as 35 below will result, and will
likely need wind chill headlines for most if not all of western
and central North Dakota during that period.

A quasi-zonal flow pattern develops Wednesday through the rest of
the work week, keeping precipitation chances minimal to nothing,
and slowly moderating temperatures with daytime highs into the 20s
by Friday. More of a southwest flow pattern then starts to
materialize next weekend, which should further moderate
temperatures a bit along with perhaps some increase in
precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1219 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

Continue to see MVFR conditions at all locations, mainly due to
lower visibility in light snow. Cigs are occasionally approaching
MVFR as well. Expect to see the light snow gradually taper off
from west to east, although lower ceilings may hold on into the
afternoon, especially east.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ047-
048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JNS



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