Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 242030
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SNOW
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. SHORT TERM FORECAST MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LOW PRESSURE GATHERING WELL SOUTH
OF NORTH DAKOTA...IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
THIS WILL PUT NORTH DAKOTA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE BETTER
SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. MODEL GENERATED VERTICAL
VELOCITIES INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WITH THE BEST
LIFT GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH DAKOTA / SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.

HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST (MARMARTH...BOWMAN AND HETTINGER) WITH SMALLER AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR LESS FARTHER EAST (SELFRIDGE...THROUGH ASHLEY AND
ELLENDALE). THIS LINES UP WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC. WILL
NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS THE SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.

THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SURFACE
LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LIGHT HOLIDAY SNOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND 20S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

SUNDAY A STRONGER ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HEIGHT FIELDS DEVELOP BETWEEN THE 12 UTC RUNS OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS RUN BEING SLIGHTLY
COLDER FOR NORTH DAKOTA. REGARDLESS...VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILLS REACHING DANGEROUS LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REACH
WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BRIEFLY BE REACHED SUNDAY NIGHT IN
COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

NEW YEARS EVE INTO THE NEW YEAR...THE 12 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE PROGRESSES
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE REGION. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME FORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL SETUP A STRONG
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST (COLDEST) TO SOUTHWEST (WARMEST)
ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA HAVE SEEN
CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH MVFR AND IFR BECOMING LESS
PRONOUNCED. KJMS IS STILL REPORTING IFR CEILINGS...BUT EXPECT
THOSE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR KDIK AS LOW PRESSURE GATHERS IN
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT
AT THE REMAINDER OF THE AERODROMES...KISN..KMOT...KBIS AND KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...CK





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