Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 131447
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO ADD A BAND OF FLURRIES FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE MORNING...PER OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC.
EXPECT A RAW DAY TODAY...WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND GUSTS IN THE 30S. A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE
MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH ACROSS ALBERTA/SASK
CLEARING CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS THE MAIN
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ONTARIO AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN FRONT RANGE
PUSHES INTO MONTANA. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WITH
COLD ADVECTION ONGOING HAS KEPT NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER
30S ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH PUSHING FARTHER
INTO NORTH DAKOTA. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA GRADUALLY
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THIS SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS
SHOULD BE 15 TO 20 TONIGHT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

MAIN CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALSO THE COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT TRENDING A COLD H500 HUDSON BAY LOW
ACROSS CENTRAL US AND CANADA AS A WEAK REX BLOCK DEGRADES OVER THE
WEST. A SHORTWAVE TOPS THE RIDGE PORTION OF THE BLOCK AND HEADS
SOUTH AND CARVES OUT A POSITIVELY TILTED H500 TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SOUTH TO EASTERN MONTANA. THE INCREASING
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND H300 JET FORMATION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD LEND SUPPORT TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE SNOW FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE
CURRENT QPF FORECAST OBTAINED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ONE QUESTION WILL BE IF
THE LOW LEVEL COLD INTRUSION NEAR THE SURFACE UNDERCUTS A WARMER
LAYER WILL THERE BE FREEZING PRECIPITATION EARLY WEDNESDAY. FELT
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AT THIS
TIME AND LEFT AS RAIN SNOW MIX. AFTER WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A SLOW
WARM UP ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND...AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ARE NOT OUR OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

UPDATED KMOT TAF TO INCLUDE FLURRIES THROUGH 18Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH  AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFT 01Z. MVFR CIGS TO
RETURN AGAIN AFT 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...RPK/WAA






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