Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231301
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
801 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Quick update to adjust PoPs for radar trends through 1230 UTC, and
increase snowfall amounts into the early afternoon between US
Highway 2 and ND Highway 200 across central North Dakota based on
trends in the 06 UTC GFS/NAM and 11 UTC RAP/HRRR. These solutions
favor a re-invigoration of the snow band early this afternoon as
a shortwave across eastern Montana propagates east. An additional
1 to 3 inches of accumulation is possible.

UPDATE Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

For morning update have adjusted core of higher snow chances north
a little bit in line with latest radar depiction. Latest NAM
frontogenesis seems to have the best grasp on the position of
this, and has it shifting east/diminishing west to east this
morning. Therefore will continue the trend of backing off on
precipitation chances through the morning. Have also added the
mention of patchy fog over the far southwest through mid-morning.
Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Current surface analysis places low near James Bay with cold front
sweeping through the upper midwest crossing through northern South
Dakota into far southern Montana. Upper level analysis places weak
ridging to the lee of the Rockies, though a variety of short waves
noted in the flow. Periods of snow continue in area of enhanced
frontogenesis mainly along and between highways 200 and 2.

For today...strong broad scale lift gradually diminishes with
precipitation tapering off. Upper ridge to the west quickly breaks
down as a potent short wave quickly approaches the area.

For tonight...aforementioned short wave continues its approach
while a surface low deepens over northeast Wyoming and slides
through central North Dakota. Precipitation will again develop
over the region, particularly by late evening and overnight.
Greatest chances for accumulating snow will be over northern
locations where a couple inches will be possible. Elsewhere, a
rain snow mix is possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Precipitation gradually shifts towards the east on Monday as short
wave advances. Greatest chances remain in the morning, when an
inch or two of snow will be possible north. Temperatures will
remain quite cool, with highs in the far north only reaching into
the 30s.

Well below average temperatures remain through mid-week with a
modest warming trend expected towards the end of the week.
Occasional disturbances moving through will bring low
precipitation chances from time to time through mid-week. Models
are hinting at greater precipitation chances coming next weekend
as an upper low deepens near the four-corners region and lifts
towards the plains, but we are a long way out for determining
where this system will move and how strong it will be.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 755 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A mix of IFR and MVFR can be expected over the next 24 hours.
Periods of light snow are possible at KMOT this morning, and
possibly into the afternoon on the northern fringe of a snow band
that extends east to between KFAR/KGFK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD



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