Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 070547
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1147 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

No major changes made for this update. Temperatures are falling a
bit further than previously forecast. Otherwise, forecast is on
track.

UPDATE Issued at 930 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Main issue this update was to increase clouds far west and added a
mention of flurries. A band of warm advection clouds has pushed
into western ND. Flurries reported this past hour in Beach and
earlier in Glendive. Although not strong, synoptic scale forcing
and periods of Frontogenetic forcing remain in the west through
Thursday morning, so added a mention of scattered flurries.

As far as temperatures, they have begun to rise in the west and
continue to fall east. Populated latest hourly temperatures and
interpolated.

UPDATE Issued at 531 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

At 5 PM central, a surface high is centered over northwest North
Dakota with mostly clear skies over most of the forecast area.
Temperatures have already dropped below forecast minimum
temperatures in parts of the west so will need to lower
temperatures some here. Expect we will need to visit temperatures
numerous times this evening. Band of clouds in eastern Montana is
expected to spread into North Dakota tonight, this will end the
temperature drop west and will likely see temperatures rise while
they continue to fall central. Stay Tuned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Current surface analysis places high pressure over the Canadian
prairies settling into the northern plains. Upper level analysis
places trough stretching from the Great Lakes towards the four
corners region with ridge over the Pacific northwest. Fast
northerly flow remains over our area.

For tonight...a chilly night is on tap as surface high continues
to settle over the area.

On Thursday...temperatures will moderate some with highs climbing
to near average as Pacific ridge starts to scamper east. Quiet
weather continues through the day, though a fast moving wave will
zip through the region in the evening. This feature will pass
mainly to the east of the area. With that said, a little light
snow over eastern locations will not be out of the question.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The long term appears rather quiet and mild as the main storm
track shifts east. Temperatures will gradually warm going into the weekend.
An unsettled pattern returns to start the week bringing occasional
precipiation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Brief period of IFR but mainly MVFR ceilings extend north to south
along the MT/ND border and extend well north into Canada. This
stratus will slowly push east overnight. There are some
indications that this band of stratus will hold together and
impact all terminals eventually. For now kept CIGS mainly MVFR,
but amendments to IFR may be needed at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS as this band
evolves.



&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AJ



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