Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 202257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
557 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Quick updated to bump winds a bit through early evening around the
Turtle Mountains. Also made some minor tweaks to sky cover, and
pops over the southwest.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Cooler temperatures on Tuesday highlight the short term forecast.

A cold front across northwest and north central North Dakota as of
20 UTC will continue to propagate southeast this afternoon and
evening with cool high pressure building behind the front across
the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. There is a
chance for light snow across extreme southwest North Dakota
tonight into Tuesday morning in association with the baroclinic
zone on the western periphery of the high.

A much cooler Tuesday is forecast compared to the last couple days
with highs in the 20s north central and the 30s elsewhere with
cool high pressure across the region. Given good agreement, a
blend of the 12 UTC global and the 14-16 UTC high resolution
suites were favored for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Above normal temperatures and light precipitation chances
highlight the extended forecast.

Given a small forecast spread, a blend of the 12 UTC global models
was used. This favors a building ridge across the region on
Wednesday, forecast to transition to split flow late next week
with a deep cut off low across the Southern Plains. This favors
above normal temperatures for much of the region with values in
the 40s and 50s by Thursday into the weekend. There is a chance
for a light rain and snow mix across much of western and central
North Dakota on Wednesday as a rapidly propagating shortwave
ejects out of the intermountain west. There is another chance for
rain on Thursday with a stronger leading wave ahead of the upper
low that will cut off across the Southern Plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

MVFR ceilings across southwest and far south central North Dakota
this afternoon will improve to VFR late this afternoon into the
early evening. Scattered rain showers are also possible. MVFR
ceilings may return to far southwest North Dakota late tonight
into Tuesday morning with light snow. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are forecast across western and central North Dakota for the 18
UTC TAF cycle.


Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

The Little Muddy River near Williston appears to be in the process
of cresting this afternoon as the snowpack and potential for
additional sustained runoff have been depleted. Elevated flows
were also noted on Long Creek in the Souris Basin that will be
captured by Boundary Reservoir. The Souris River near Sherwood is
also rising from releases from Alameda in the 500-700 CFS range.




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