Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191435
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS WERE REPORTING VISIBILITY IMPROVING TO 4
MILES AND 7 MILES RESPECTIVELY...AND OTHER SITES REPORTED IMPROVING
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE...REMAINING FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE ESTEVAN AND TIOGA OBS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR
LESS THIS MORNING. THESE REDUCED VISIBILITIES SHOULD QUICKLY BURN
OFF IN A FEW HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES BASED ON CURRENT OBS/TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ROLLA...FOG HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED IN THE
AREA THIS MORNING. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE...THUS WAS LEFT IN THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE UPCOMING WET
PERIOD.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE STATE IS SCHEDULED TO INITIATE
ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT...AT LEAST ACCORDING
TO THE 00 UTC WRF ARW AND THE PAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR. WHILE
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE NEARLY SATURATED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST...THE PAST DAY WITHOUT RAIN SHOULD HAVE BUILT A BIT OF
CAPACITY FOR PROGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT TO PASS WITHOUT
FURTHER FLOODING GIVEN AMOUNTS WELL UNDER AN INCH...PER WPC QPF.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH RESPECT TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST GIVEN THE
MODEL DIFFERENCES.

A WAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS
IS WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS HIGHLIGHTED IN
ITS DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE SOUTHERN JAMES
RIVER VALLEY WERE TO SEE A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT...WILL KEEP
THE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES AND HWO FOR NOW.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY
WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (HIGHS
AROUND 70).

THE GEM/GFS FORECAST DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z AT KISN/KDIK...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT
TO MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...SCHECK
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...SCHECK





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