Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220511

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1211 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Mostly clear skies across western and central ND tonight. Lowered
temperatures a little as some areas already at overnight lows.
Otherwise no changes to the going forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 848 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Quiet weather continues with current forecast remaining on track.

UPDATE Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Quiet weather continues over the area with winds gradually
subsiding. Going forecast remains on track.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Winds will subside late this afternoon as surface high pressure
quickly builds west to east over the area. Dry tonight with
light westerly flow this evening becoming southerly over western
ND late tonight ahead of another quick moving shortwave.

Short range models also hinting at some fog development in
the Turtle Mountains. With light winds and Max Relative
Humidity approaching 100 percent went ahead and added in patchy
fog in the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Another shortwave will track along the International border
through Saturday. The latest 12 UTC model guidance has more or
less zeroed in the track. For now chances for rain across the
northern tier counties of North Dakota. On the back side Saturday
night temperatures could cool down enough to see some snowflakes
in the Turtle Mountains. No accumulations are expected.

Cooler Sunday behind the exiting low but dry as surface high
pressure builds over the area. Upper level ridging ahead of an
eastern Pacific trough should provide mild and mainly dry
conditions early next week. The ridge begins to break down by mid
week and several waves may impact the region, bringing chances
for precipitation back into the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

At 05z...high pressure extended from southern Saskatchewan across
the Dakotas into the central plains. Expecting light winds and sct
to bkn high clouds for the overnight hours. After daybreak low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies moves east towards the
western border of the Dakotas. This will allow southeast winds to
develop...along with VFR cigs over KISN-KMOT TAF sites. Late this
afternoon a cold front enters western ND and moves east into eastern
ND during the evening. Northwest winds behind the cold front around
15 knots gusting to around 20 knots. May see some late night MVFR
cigs at KISN and KMOT...confidence not great enough to mention in
TAFs this issuance.




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