Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231004
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
404 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Concerns for the short include patchy dense fog southwest this
morning. Then snow is forecast to spread across southern North
Dakota late this afternoon with some accumulations tonight and
Tuesday.

This morning fog is developing along the cloud edge in southwest
North Dakota. This should result in a narrow band of low
visibility across the southwest. Will initially handle this with
a special weather statement highlighting low visibilities and
possible rime on roads.

This afternoon an h500 upper low over the northwest US will kick
east and track toward Nebraska and South Dakota. This will spread
snow across South Dakota and into southwest North Dakota late this
afternoon. The majority of the accumulating snow will fall in the
extended period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Snow will fall across the southern third of North Dakota Monday
night and Tuesday. GEFS plumes show mean QPF amounts of 0.4 near
Mobridge to around 0.1 inch at Bismarck for the event. This
translates to a potential 1 to 5 inches of snow for the 36 hour
period across the southern third of North Dakota. In collaboration
with surrounding offices decided to hold off on winter weather
advisory for now.

As the low moves east nam/gfs/ecmwf all support some gusty
northwest winds across the new snow on Tuesday and Tuesday
evening. With this in mind added some blowing snow but probably
not serious enough to go above patchy blowing snow.

Wednesday through Friday will be mainly dry as a high index mid
level flow develops with a ridge over the eastern Pacific into the
western CONUS and a large trough over the eastern US. This will
set up a favorable scenario for several clipper systems to slide
down the eastern ridge into the Northern plains for next weekend.
Eventually these clipper systems will pull colder air into the
region.

The eight to 14 day outlook suggests colder than normal
temperatures and potential for cold wind chills in the 30 Jan
through Feb 5th time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Large swath of stratus remains over all of North Dakota and much
of northeast and eastern Montana. Widespread MVFR will persist
through the 06z TAF period at all taf site except KDIK where IFR
to LOW IFR will prevail.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA


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