Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 300547
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

UPDATED FOR TIMING OF COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR DEVILS LAKE/JAMESTOWN WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR MINOT AND WILLISTON TO
THE MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER. WINDS HAD TURNED NORTHWEST/NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTH AN HOUR OR TWO
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT FRONT AND CLOUDS TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT MADE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. KEPT MENTION OF POSSIBLE DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. 00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWED NO ICE CRYSTALS ABOVE STRATUS LAYER. LOWS IN THE NORTH
REACHING THE UPPER 20S...SO PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE LOW IN WHETHER PRECIP WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT
LATEST HIGH RES NMM AND ARW MODELS SHOWING SOME SPOTTY PRECIP
POSSIBLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPDATED FOR PATCHY FOG SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION LESS THAN 2. FOG SHOULD LIFT/DISSIPATED WHEN
NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHOWERS ARE ENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIS EVENING. TRENDED THE
POPS TO FIT THE LATEST RADAR. CLEARING SKIES ARE OVER A LARGE PART
OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE REPLACED WITH A STRATUS
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN. SO FAR SEE NO DRIZZLE/FZDZ YET IN SASK BUT WILL
MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD
FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
SHOWERS WERE TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WITH CLEARING ALREADY SEEN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN WILL
END ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. COOL AIR ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN WILL FOLLOW LATER TONIGHT. COOL AIR STRATUS IS PRETTY
WIDESPREAD IN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO REGINA. THIS
WILL MOVE INGOT WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR ABOVE COULD CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN FOR ANY EVIDENCE FOR
THIS. SO FAR CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS OK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CROSSING THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 AS OF 1945 UTC WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
JAMES AND RED RIVER VALLEYS THIS EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR
ITERATIONS...NAMELY THEIR 17-18 UTC RUNS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL FOLLOW THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT. THEREAFTER...LOW LEVEL STRATUS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND ALBERTA WILL PROPAGATE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE LACK OF
SATURATION AT TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10 C...PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FALL BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHERN
CANADA...SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY/SATURDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO WINDY (30-50 MPH) CONDITIONS SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WITH
20-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED WELL IN THE ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE USING THE V COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A
SOLID HIGH END WIND ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THE STRONGER GFS/ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS COULD
REACH 40 MPH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A HIGH WIND WARNING. FOR NOW WILL
BLEND THE WEAKER NAM AND THE STRONGER GFS WHICH USUALLY IS A GOOD
COMBINATION IN THESE WARM AIR ADVECTION SITUATIONS. WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS LOOK AT THE LATEST DATA FOR CHANGES. THE GRADIENT
SHIFTS EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
CHILLY HIGHS ON FRIDAY...RANGING BETWEEN 35 TO 45. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 45 TO 55. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH DRY WITH
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL.
EXPECT MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST. COLDER AIR MONDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S. THE PATTERN REMAINS
PROGRESSIVE AS A QUICK MOVING ALBERTA CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SLIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
INITIALLY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER WITH POSSIBLY SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE
CLIPPER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

RAIN SHOWERS HAD MOVED EAST OF THE KJMS AREA. WILL ADD TEMPO GROUP
FOR FOG TO KBIS AND KJMS TAF. GETTING GROUND FOG SOUTH CENTRAL AS
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED AND SURFACE MOISTURE LIGHT WINDS COMBINE FOR
FOG. EXPECTING FOG TO DISSIPATE AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE AFTER
AROUND 09Z/10Z. SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR KDVL/KJMS WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KMOT...AND WAS ALREADY SOUTH OF
KISN. WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT MVFR
AND IFR CIGS TO MOVE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT...LAGGING THE FRONT BY
AN HOUR OR SO.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV






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