Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 162052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
252 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

For late tonight into Saturday morning, there is a chance of snow
across southwestern into south central North Dakota as a series
of impulses rapidly propagate across the Northern Plains. Steep
mid level lapse rates may support somewhat of a convective nature
to the snow showers. While accumulations on the whole should
remain minor...generally and inch or less...a few locations given
the possible convective nature of the snow could see closer to one
or two inches in fairly narrow zones.

Tomorrow will be mostly quiet. Breezy westerly winds will develop
ahead of the approaching storm.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Widespread accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday with
dangerous wind chills to follow highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC and models continue to favor widespread accumulating
snow Saturday night into Sunday. Most models have come in line on
the timing and track of the system (minus the 12 UTC ECMWF). The
main wave arrives Sunday morning, but ahead of the wave a potent
jet streak noses into the region Saturday evening. This is when
light snow is expected to start developing across western North
Dakota. As the main wave arrives, strong low/mid level forcing
kicks in and snow will become widespread across western and
central North Dakota. At this time, it appears between two and
four inches of snow is favored between US Highway 2 and I-94
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Isolated higher accumulations
are possible where banded snow sets up. It should be noted that a
loss of ice crystals in the column south of I-94 will reduce
snowfall amounts for these locations with a glaze of ice not out
of the question in freezing drizzle.

Arctic high pressure is expected to build across western and
central North Dakota Monday and Tuesday. A period of dangerous
wind chills is expected Sunday night through Tuesday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions are expected to start the 18Z TAF period. Winds
will be gusty at times, but will diminish this evening. Light snow
is possible tonight into early Saturday, with the best chances in
the southwest part of the state. Have continued to carry VCSH at
KDIK for now to cover those possibilities. MVFR ceilings will
also spread from west to east later tonight.




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