Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 152104

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
304 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Light radar returns continue over portions of western and central
ND. Light rain was observed in north central ND along with light
snow in the Rolla area. Snowfall amounts around one inch are
forecast for the far northeast CWA.

A quasi-stationary frontal boundary across north central into
eastern North Dakota will begin an eastward shift around 06Z,
diminishing chances for light precipitation in northern and eastern
areas of the CWA. The eastward shift occurs as a weak secondary cold
front from Saskatchewan slides south through western and central ND.
Associated chances for snow are possible in the far southwest
Saturday morning. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF keep QPF just south of the
border in SD, while the SREF/Canadian touch the far southwest with
light QPF. Opted to include slight chances for light snow in the
forecast. BUFKIT soundings indicate a fairly saturated column,
particularly in the lower levels though overall chances for snow
look underwhelming. Along with a few flakes, freezing drizzle may be
possible in the far southwest. Though guidance hints at the
possibility of freezing drizzle, due to lack of nuclei, opted not to
include freezing drizzle in the forecast due to overall confidence
in precipitation being low.

Cooler Canadian air will filter into state with the surface front,
bringing cooler temperatures for Saturday. Highs will be in the 30s;
still mild for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Sunday kicks off the long term with nice weather. Mild and dry
conditions with light winds and partly cloudy skies are in the
forecast Sunday. As we get into the Sunday night/Monday Morning,
another clipper/cold front is projected to move eastward across ND.
Associated chances for precipitation (mostly snow) are forecast
mainly in northern areas, at this time, through Monday morning.
breezy conditions are also expected Monday. Another system (with
potential impacts) is slated for late Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Widespread accumulating snow will be possible though much
depends on where the sfc low sets up and tracks. Once this system
departs, colder air is forecast to enter into the region. Based on
long range outlooks (MJO and ensemble runs) the colder air may
linger beyond the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Low pressure across Central Saskatchewan at noon CST Friday is
forecast to move southeast to the eastern Dakotas by noon Saturday.
This will spread MVFR conditions in stratus to the state after 09Z
Saturday morning. Until then VFR is expected.




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