Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 020522
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1222 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION WAS AS FAR WEST AS BOTTINEAU COUNTY...AND HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CELLS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BULK SHEAR IS STILL QUITE HIGH...WITH THE BEST MIXED
LAYER CAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
SKIM THE BOTTINEAU/TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA...AND INTO RUGBY/TOWNER -
MAINLY EAST OF MINOT. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON HOW LONG
CONVECTION WILL LINGER...BUT ALL AGREE ON ACTIVITY REMAINING UNTIL
AROUND 09Z (4 AM CDT). THUS HAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS UNTIL
THEN. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER TO SEE WHICH OF THE MODELS HANDLED
CONVECTION THE BEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION THREAT HAS ENDED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER
BOTTINEAU COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ML CAPES AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG WITH 50-60 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW MORE STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. THIS IS CURRENTLY COVERED IN THE GOING FORECAST.

WE DID BUMP UP WINDS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS EVENING
A NICE FALL-RISE PRESSURE BUBBLE WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
40 MPH WIND GUSTS WERE REPORTED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE 8
PM OBSERVATIONS. THE COUPLET WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BUT AS WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH THE
SETTING SUN...THE STRONGER GUST POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SUBSIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CIN TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE REMAINS HIGH BUT SHEAR IS DECREASING. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER THROUGH 7 PM AS A FEW CU REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF DICKEY/LAMOURE COUNTIES.

TO THE NORTHWEST...A LINE OF CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH DRIED DEWPOINTS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. COULD STILL BE
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HERE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS COVERED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1920 UTC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN JAMESTOWN...STEELE AND EDGELEY.
THE 13-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE ALL DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FOR THIS AREA BY 21 UTC IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY ML CAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND HAVE THUS ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THREAT TO QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GRAND FORKS CWA BY 00 UTC.

LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INITIALLY...UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN A CLOSED MID LEVEL CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT 05Z A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN KDIK/KISN TO BETWEEN KMOT/KN60 TO NEAR
GRAND FORKS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY/BEFORE SUNRISE.
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LOWER TO
BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS FAR WEST AS BOTTINEAU. EXPECT THESE CONVECTIVE
CELLS TO REMAIN EAST OF MINOT. WILL NOT MENTION IN KJMS JUST YET AS
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE EAST OF KJMS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

AFTER 15Z/16Z NORTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE WINDS LINK TO
THE MIXING WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV


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