Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 240538
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1238 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Main concerns for the early morning update were shower chances and
potential frost.

Utilized a blend of the RAP and HRRR with previous forecast and
latest observational analysis for pops late tonight into early
Saturday morning. Currently showers are dropping south through the
north central, with very light but some measurable amounts
(hundredth at KMOT) of precip. RAP HRRR blend swings this are just
north and east of Bismarck and into the Jamestown area around
09-12 UTC.

In the west, increased clouds and winds with a frontal boundary
should ease concerns of frost overnight. Utilized a blend of bias
corrected short term guidance with the previous forecast to arrive
at hourly temperatures into Saturday morning, this was a little
warmer than the previous forecast. However, there could still be
some local areas where temperatures drop briefly into the mid 30s.

Updated products will be sent shortly.

UPDATE Issued at 1003 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Frost across the southwest is a big question for tonight. Surface
dewpoints around 30F as of 03 UTC are in place with winds
continuing to weaken quickly with sunset and on the eastern
periphery of the surface high. However, some upstream cloud cover
and possibly enhanced mixing late tonight with a weak surface
boundary as the surface reflection of the compact upper level low
add uncertainty to how cool temperatures will become. Furthermore,
the rather short nights narrow the window for prime radiational
cooling. Thus, despite the cool and dry start to the evening,
enough uncertainty exists to hold off on a Frost Advisory for the
southwest.

UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Little change other than for observed trends through 23 UTC.
Maintained a mention of isolated showers central overnight as the
compact upper low across eastern Saskatchewan early this evening
propagates southeast overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Currently, sat pics indicate an upper level low over central
Saskatchewan. At the surface, cool and dry high pressure was along
the Canadian and Montana Front Range, with gusty northwest winds of
20 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph at times bringing cooler air
into the region. Temperatures this afternoon were in the 60s across
our area.

Tonight the upper low is forecast to dive southeast into the ND/MN
border by sunrise Saturday. An attendant cold front will accompany
the upper low and bring a reinforcement of cool, dry air to our
area. There is a hint of a possibility of isolated showers in the
Bottineau County/Turtle Mountain area tonight with the upper low and
cold front. We can expect northwest winds to decrease to about 10 to
15 mph tonight, with overnight lows mainly in the low to mid
40s...with some upper 30s possible, especially southwest.

Breezy Saturday (winds not quite as strong as Friday expected) with
highs from the mid 50s in the Turtle Mountains to near 70 far
southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Continued northwesterly flow aloft Saturday night and Sunday as a
west coast ridge begins expanding and strengthening across the
Rockies. Ridging moves into the western Plains Monday. A gradual
warmup with highs Sunday from the upper 60s Turtle Mountains/James
Valley to the mid 70s southwest...then mid 70s east to mid 80s west
on Monday.

Tuesday through Friday: An upper level low over the Canadian Rockies
moves east and develops over Alberta/Saskatchewan by Thursday,
moving east slowly across south central Canada/northern tier of US
near ND and MN. This will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms
to our area. Global model differences in placement/timing indicate
lower confidence on determining when/where better chances of
beneficial rains might occur. The GFS model is more bullish on
precip for ND, and indicates a possibility for some strong to severe
storms Tuesday afternoon over central/eastern ND. The ECMWF however
indicates weaker CAPE/Shear parameters for this time. The warmest
day looks to be Tuesday - in the 80s across all of western and
central ND...then a gradual cooling trend back into the mid 60s to
mid 70s by Friday in the vicinity of the slow-moving upper low over
the Canadian Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

A band of light rainshowers will quickly push across KMOT through
07z Saturday, and then proceed into KJMS between 10z-12z Saturday. A
tempo group was used at both locations, as areal coverage looks to
impact terminals much less than half the time. Mvfr cigs will
develop at KMOT/KJMS between 12z and 14z Saturday, and continue at
KMOT until 18z, and through most of the day at KJMS. Although, there
will be brief periods when cigs will rise just above mvfr at KJMS.
Vfr cigs/vsbys at all other terminals. Gusty northwest winds between
18kt and 28kt can be expected through sunset Saturday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS



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