Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270535
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1235 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR THE BORDER OF ND/MN/MANITOBA WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG/NEAR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY WEST WINDS.
THE ANTICIPATED SECONDARY COLD FRONT FOR LATER ON MONDAY EXTENDED
FROM A LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA. FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EXPECTING
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BASED ON
HOURLY OBSERVATIONS...BUT STILL EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. ONGOING FORECAST ON TRACK.

LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE...WITH
INCREASING WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S MANY
AREAS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS...HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

OCCLUDED FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL BUT FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT A GENERAL WEST
FLOW TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. INCREASING CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WEST ON MONDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.

AS OF 2000 UTC...AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS JUST CLEARED HIGHWAY 83 AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE COLDER AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBERTA BEHIND
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST...ARRIVING
AROUND 12 UTC ACROSS THE WEST...AND OVERTAKING THE CENTRAL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COLD
AIR ADVECTION WITH 40-50 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SUPPORTS ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS. THUS
ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FROM 16-01 UTC FOR THE SOUTHWEST. IN
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION...RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST DURING
THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT SNOW NEAR 00 UTC ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER PATTERN AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...THEN TRENDING DRY AFTER MID WEEK ALONG WITH A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUE/INCREASE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
FORCING AND MOISTURE RAMP UP WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL RESULT IN CAA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR BECOMING ALL SNOW
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...A FEW TENTHS...FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT SEE A LONGER DURATION/INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY IMPACTS SO WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE HWO WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MODERATE A BIT MID WEEK...THEN DROP AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER
PARTS OF THIS COMING WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A LARGE
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN PUSHING EAST INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES. IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT
WILL NOT PROGRESS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS UNTIL AFTER FRIDAY...SO
DO EXPECT SEASONAL HIGHS/LOWS FOR HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEST FLOW TONIGHT MAINLY 8-14KTS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO KISN AROUND
16Z AND KDIK AROUND 19Z WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. MVFR CIGS SPREAD TO
KMOT AND KBIS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND REACHING KJMS BY AROUND
03Z. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT KISN/KMOT MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV






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