Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 222239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
539 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Quick update to increase PoPs through 01 UTC across south central
North Dakota and into the James River Valley per radar trends in a
High PoP/Low QPF scenario.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Diurnal convection peaking out this afternoon with the upper level
trough moving through. Just enough cape for a few thunderstorms
southwest this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise the
convection will diminish quickly after sunset with skies slowly
clearing tonight from the west. Tonight`s lows will be in the
upper 30s southwest to the upper 40s east. Will not mention frost
as the minimum temperatures should be just above the frost

On Tuesday the upper low will exit the region with rising heights
at h500 suppressing convection most of the area. Tuesday will be
partly sunny west with lingering clouds and a few showers across
the James River Valley. Highs Tuesday upper 50s James River
Valley to the upper 60s northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The extended will generally remain below normal for temperatures
with limited precipitation. Initially the global models track an
upper low across southern Canada pulling a cold front through
western North Dakota Wednesday Afternoon. Scattered showers will
form along the cold front. Cape is limited but zero to 6 km shear
sufficient to support a few thunderstorms along the front.

There will be lingering showers across the north and east
Thursday. Friday through Memorial Day will see spotty showers but
not anything widespread. Highs through the weekend into Memorial
Day period mostly in the 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Rain showers will continue across south central North Dakota and
the James River Valley early this evening, fading with sunset.
MVFR stratus may impact the James River Valley tonight.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for the upcoming 00 UTC TAF




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