Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 011750
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SUNNY SKIES PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD LOOKS GOOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIFTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING SOME LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT.
THAT WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD SO FAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT 9 AM CDT...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WERE
SUNNY. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING WELL. HIGHS AROUND 90 SOUTHWEST
TO THE MID 80S NORTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES WITH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
TUESDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PERSIST.

TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK FOR SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DRY AND VERY WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN COOLER WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
AXIS...KEEPING THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIR OVER THE STATE. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
UPPER 90S WEST TO LOWER 90S FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO THE JAMES
VALLEY. BY THURSDAY SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW BEGIN TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ALSO INDUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING SOME COOLER AIR TO
BEGIN MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT A
BIT COOLER NORTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ON FRIDAY THE LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...SENDING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ON SUNDAY THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING MANITOBA BY
MONDAY. THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS BY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AT NOON CDT...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENTLY
SKIES WERE CLEAR. VFR IS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. TO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...WAA


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